Homestead-Miami Speedway will host the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Championship this Sunday. The four remaining competitors who can win the title are Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, who have 21 race championships among them this season. The normal field of drivers will all take part — and could all win Sunday’s race, of course — but only those four drivers are eligible for the overall championship. No matter who wins the race overall, the champion will be the first finisher among those four. We have NASCAR odds for the driving field as well as suggestions for your wager cards.
NASCAR 2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 Odds, Preview & Predictions
The #Championship4 is set.@dennyhamlin | @KevinHarvick | @MartinTruex_Jr | @KyleBusch pic.twitter.com/XA2nF6hrW8
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) November 10, 2019
Race Info
- When: Sunday, November 17th, 2pm
- Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
- TV: NBC
- Live Stream: NBCSports.com
2019 NASCAR Championship Odds
- Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr: 5/2
- Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin: 14/5
Odds to Win the 2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 Odds
- Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch 11/4
- Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin 3/1
- Kyle Larson 8/1
- Joey Logano 25/1
- Brad Keselowski 30/1
- Chase Elliott 50/1
- Erik Jones, Kurt Busch, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman 60/1
- William Byron 80/1
- Clint Bowyer 100/1
- Aric Almirola, Daniel Suarez, Jimmie Johnson 200/1
- Ryan Newman, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Austin Dillon 500/1
- Paul Menard, Matt DiBenedetto, Chris Buescher 1000/1
- Daniel Hemric, Ryan Preece, Ty Dillon, Darrell Wallace Jr,
- Michael McDowell, David Ragan 5000/1
- John H. Nemechek, Corey LaJoie, Landon Cassill, Reed Sorenson 10000/1
- FIELD (all other drivers) 2000/1
So who do we like to win the championship?
Homestead is a unique track in NASCAR, running 1 ½ miles long and featuring several grooves — and a ton of tire wear. So you’ll see people racing side by side and lots of movement. Of the four qualifiers for the title, Harvick has led the most laps on tracks with high tire wear, while Busch has run the most fast laps. Over the last four races at Homestead, the stats have flipped, with Harvick running off the most fast laps, while Busch has led the most laps. Given those numbers, I would argue that Harvick offers the best combination of performance on this sort of track as well as value.
Harvick won the title here in 2014, winning the race and the title. Busch won the title here in 2015, also winning both the race and the title. But what about the other two contenders? Denny Hamlin won the third Round of 8 race, dominating the final stage. He also leads the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series with six race wins on the season. He has been a terrific driver for years but has never won a Cup championship. This could be his year — and he offers some value as well.
But what about Truex?
He earned a spot in the Championship 4 by winning the first race of the Round of 8 at Martinsville. He won the Cup two years ago, also winning the Homestead race.
So if you’re looking for a pick to win the race overall, it also looks like you’re looking to bet on the same driver who wins the playoffs as form has gone that way over the past few years. Harvick did pick up a win at the AAA Texas 500 on November 3, ending a fairly long drought with respect to drawing the checkered flag. So if you put your money on Harvick for both wagers, you pick up a little bit of value — with a high degree of probability.
