Bellator 199 MMA Betting Preview & Pick

On Saturday night, San Jose’s SAP Center will host Bellator 199, headlined by a bout between Ryan Bader and Muhammed Lawal, one of the quarterfinal bouts in the Bellator Heavyweight Grand Prix. Check out prelims on ParamountNetwork.com, starting at 7:00pm Eastern time, with the main card set for the Paramount Network at 9:00pm Eastern time. Below you’ll find our MMA betting insights on the main event, as well as some of the other bouts.

Bellator 199 MMA Betting Preview & Pick

Main Card (Paramount Network, 9:00pm ET)

• Ryan Bader vs Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal (Bellator Heavyweight Grand Prix Quarterfinal)
• Paul Daley vs Jon Fitch (Welterweight)
• Cheick Kongo vs Javy Ayala (Heavyweight)
• Adam Piccolotti vs Carrington Banks (Lightweight)
• Aaron Pico vs Lee Morrison (Featherweight)

Prelims (ParamountNetwork.com, 7:00pm ET)

• James Terry vs Danasabe Mohammed (Welterweight)
• Brandon Hester vs Diego Herzo (Middleweight)
• Mark Climaco vs Daniel Oseguera (Flyweight)
• Elias Anderson vs Hyder Amil (Lightweight)
• Josh San Diego vs Hohelin Hernandez (Bantamweight)
• Dominic Sumner vs Tom Oswald (Welterweight)
• Khai Wu vs Cass Bell (Bantamweight)
• Josh Paiva vs Adam Antolin (Flyweight)
• Justin Tenedora vs David Rivera-Cruz (Bantamweight)
• Janay Harding vs Amber Leibrock (Women’s Featherweight)

Ryan Bader (24-5-0) vs Muhammed Lawal (21-6-0) features the reigning Bellator light-heavyweight champ in Bader against Lawal, who has recently gone up from light-heavyweight to heavyweight and has won two of his last three fights. Those two wins both came in the Bellator promotion, where he took down Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Satoshi Ishii. Bader has won four straight fights, including a pair in the UFC. Lawal (+275) has won 13 of his 21 victories via knockout but has not been in the cage for more than a year because of several injuries which caused him to pull out of fights against Liam McGeary and an earlier one against Bader. Lawal has sound technical skills, and he can deliver solid strikes, and if things go to the ground, he has a strong wrestling backgrounds. Lawal is 37 years old, but he still has solid cardio and brings some power with his strikes. Bader (-335) can wrestle as well, but he is much better when he can stand and exchange punches, as his power is significant. He is more aggressive and more athletic than Lawal, and his strikes come with speed and volume. Given the fact that Lawal has already taken three knockout losses, it’s hard to argue against the younger fighter. MMA Betting Prediction: Bader via knockout Paul Daley (40-15-2) vs Jon Fitch (30-7-1) is the co-main event on Saturday night. Jon Fitch won the Professional Fighters League (PFL) and World Series of Fighting (WSOF) welterweight belts before he signed on with Bellator back in March. He faces Paul Daley in his Bellator debut, with the winner getting an excellent shot to challenge “Red King” Rory MacDonald for the Bellator welterweight belt. However, Fitch has his hands full with Daley, who has heavy hands and deals bombs with his strikes, making a knockout very possible. Fitch, 40, left the other promotions because he felt like he was not getting enough fights and that he had beaten everyone else who had any talent. However, he has been out of the cage since June of last year, which is a long time for a fighter at his level. While Fitch brings a pedigree, Casey represents a major hurdle in his debut. MMA Betting Prediction: Daley via knockout Cheick Kongo (27-10-2) vs Javy Ayala (10-6-0) features an impressive up-and-coming fighter in Ayala. He knocked out Sergei Kharitonov in just 16 seconds in their bout before dropping a unanimous decision to Roy Nelson, a loss that ended Ayala’s two-bout winning streak. Now he faces Kongo, who has more wins that anyone else in Bellator history. Kongo has been out of the cage for almost a year, but he has won five heavyweight bouts in Bellator fighting in a row, and seven of his last eight. His last setback came against Lawal back in February 2015. Since then, his winning streak has included a unanimous decision win over Alexander Volkov, who is ranked fifth in the latest MMA heavyweight rankings from USA TODAY. MMA Betting Prediction: Kongo via decision