Should You Bet on the Kentucky Derby Winner in the 2018 Preakness Stakes?

The three races that comprise the Triple Crown (the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes) have all taken place since 1875, although the Triple Crown trophy was not commissioned until 1950. It was then awarded retroactively to horses that had won all three — the first of which was Sir Barton, back in 1919. The term “Triple Crown” first emerged in 1930, when Gallant Fox became the second horse to win all three. There have been 99 complete runnings of all three races, and 12 winners of the Triple Crown, most recently American Pharaoh in 2015. There have been 23 horses who won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes (but not the Belmont Stakes). So when Justify, the Kentucky Derby winner, lines up at Preakness Stakes, the statistical odds are not with him, at least looking at the historical numbers. But from a horse racing betting perspective, is he the safe bet to win the Preakness this year? Check out our thoughts below.

Should You Bet on the Kentucky Derby Winner in the 2018 Preakness Stakes?

Bob Baffert’s favorite leg of the #TripleCrown? Take a wild guess… #Preakness pic.twitter.com/IEXCepYmVs

— Preakness Stakes (@PreaknessStakes) May 17, 2018

Bob Baffert has trained four horses that have won both races

Baffert has trained five horses that have won the Kentucky Derby, including Justify from this year. The four previous horses are Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002) and American Pharaoh (2015), who went on to win the Triple Crown. If Justify can win the Preakness, that would make five for five. What does Baffert do to help his horses win? He realizes that they are hitting their peak, so the training that he puts his Derby winners through it not intense. He realizes that Justify’s Derby was probably the hardest race that he has done, so his focus is just maintaining that level of fitness, rather than boosting speed. Given that Justify won at Churchill Downs by 2 ½ lengths on a slow and sloppy track, that doesn’t look like a bad assumption.

Justify didn’t have to struggle to win the Kentucky Derby

Justify got to the rail in a hurry and breezed out to a big lead, but he did not appear to have to tax himself. Good Magic made a late run, but the fact that Justify did not have to add a new gear to finish with that 2 ½-length win shows that he still had something in the tank at the end. If he had looked gassed at the end, then things might look different.

What about that limp that we saw the next day?

Justify showed a visible limp in his left hind leg the day after winning at Churchill Downs. After some investigation, it turned out that he had a slight crack in that hoof. Over the two weeks between the two races, he should have plenty of time to recover from that and race well at Preakness. Even if he is only at 90 percent, he still has the strength to beat the field around him on Saturday.

Justify is in the #7 pole position. Should that play a role?

Well, since Good Magic drew the #5 slot, in the middle, while Justify starts on the outside, that is worth discussing. The Preakness (1 3/16 miles) is a little shorter than the Kentucky Derby (1 ¼ miles), and there are only half as many horses at Pimlico. So Justify will have to work harder to get over to the rail. Positions 5 and 6 have each produced a pair of winners since 2008. American Pharaoh won out of Position 1 in 2015, and Cloud Computing rolled to an upset out of Position 2 a year ago.

Who are the most likely horses to upset Justify?

Good Magic could push to a win a week after finishing as the runner-up, but that lack of closing speed at Churchill Downs doesn’t bode well for those chances. Diamond King didn’t run at the Kentucky Derby but won at the Federico Tesio Stakes at Maryland’s Laurel Park back on April 21. Those fresh legs should help him push hard at the Preakness. Sporting Chance is a temperamental horse who has tremendous speed…when he’s in the mood.