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2018 March Madness Betting Analysis: Alabama vs. Villanova

Written by on March 16, 2018

NCAAB News and Betting Previews| Xbet.ag
The Alabama Crimson Tide will square off against the Villanova Wildcats on Saturday afternoon in the second round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Villanova and Alabama both rolled to fairly easy wins in the first round, as Villanova routed Radford by an 87-61 margin, and Alabama delivered an 86-63 shellacking of Virginia Tech in their tournament opener. Let’s take a look at the latest NCAAB Odds and your best March Madness betting pick for this matchup between the top-seeded Wildcats and the 8th-seeded Crimson Tide.

Crimson Tide vs. Wildcats 2018 March Madness Betting Analysis

  • When: Saturday, March 17, 2018, 12:10pm ET
  • Where: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: TuneIn
  • Live Stream: March Madness Live
  • March Madness Betting Odds: Villanova Wildcats -10.5

Team Records

  • All: Alabama Crimson Tide 20-15 / Villanova Wildcats 31-4
  • Home: Alabama Crimson Tide 14-5 / Villanova Wildcats 20-1
  • Away: Alabama Crimson Tide 6-10 / Villanova Wildcats 11-3
  • ATS: Alabama Crimson Tide 19-15 / Villanova Wildcats 22-12-1
  • Over/Under: Alabama Crimson Tide 12-21-1 / Villanova Wildcats 24-11

Why should you bet on the Wildcats?

Villanova had a terrific shooting night against Radford in their tournament opener, shooting 59% from the floor — and keeping Radford to just 34% shooting on the day. Jalen Brunson, who has led Villanova in scoring all season, did it again with 16 points, going seven for nine from the floor. He has made at least 60% of his shots in four of his last five games. Mikal Bridges also put in 16 points and pulled down six boards. He has made 15 of his last 28 shots from downtown. With Villanova’s depth and balance, it’s easy to see how they lead the nation with 87.1 points per game. Villanova has won six straight now, and four of those five wins have come by double figures. They are draining shots left and right from three-point land, and six of their players average double figures in points. Their defense is not quite as dominant, as they permitted 70.6 points per game on the season, ranked 129th in the nation. However, their offense has the firepower to keep them ahead in games. If you like Villanova, then you see that balance opening up a big lead against Alabama and keeping it.

Team Statistics

Offense
  • Total Score: 87.06
  • Field Goal Percentage: 50.65
  • Three-Point Percentage: 40.12
  • Free Throw Percentage: 77.16
  • Total Rebounds: 35.54
Defense
  • Total Score: 70.60
  • Field Goal Percentage: 43.16
  • Three-Point Percentage: 32.80
  • Free Throw Percentage: 75.51
  • Total Rebounds: 32.66

Why should you put your money on the Crimson Tide?

Alabama shot lights out against Virginia Tech on Thursday, knocking down 60% of their shots — and outrebounding the Hokies by a 26-22 margin. Collin Sexton, the team’s leading scorer, had a big day with 25 points and six assists. He has had 21 points or more in five straight games. John Petty drained six three-pointers and picked up 20 points on the day. This gives Alabama three wins in their last four games, including a victory over Auburn in the SEC Tournament. Alabama thrives on a strong defense and guard play from Sexton and Petty. Normally, Alabama does not drop this many points, as they averaged just 72.4 points per game, and they’ll need a big shooting day to have a chance to get by Villanova. Alabama is not the March Madness Betting favorite for this contest. I don’t think that Alabama will upset Villanova. However, that line is fairly large. Alabama has limited opponents to about 32% shooting from downtown — and the three-ball is a big part of the Villanova defense. Collin Sexton and John Petty have the ability to match up well with Villanova’s guards. Sexton has been filling up the basket all season, and Petty has made 11 three-pointers in his last two games. If you like Alabama, you see their defense and outside shooting keeping things close, and remember that Providence took Villanova to overtime in the Big East tournament final.

Team Statistics

Offense
  • Total Score: 72.74
  • Field Goal Percentage: 46.21
  • Three-Point Percentage: 32.80
  • Free Throw Percentage: 67.20
  • Total Rebounds: 36.00
Defense
  • Total Score: 70.34
  • Field Goal Percentage: 41.66
  • Three-Point Percentage: 32.36
  • Free Throw Percentage: 68.13
  • Total Rebounds: 35.66

Recent March Madness Betting Trends

  • Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Alabama is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Alabama’s last 21 games
  • Villanova is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Villanova is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of Villanova’s last 16 games

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I’m very impressed with what Alabama has done this season, emerging as a solid team in an SEC that had Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn as solid teams as well. Their guard play makes them a scary opponent for any team in this tournament, including the top-seeded Wildcats. The Crimson Tide will push Villanova hard, but they don’t have the offensive balance that the Wildcats do — and they don’t have the tournament savvy that Villanova brings. I predict a final score of Villanova 82, Alabama 76 — with the Tide covering.
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