7 Things to Know Before Betting the 2019 Final Four

7 Things to Know Before Betting the 2019 Final Four

Of the 68 teams that lined up for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament on March 19, only four remain. Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Kansas are nowhere to be found. Defending champion Villanova is gone. Traditional powers like UCLA and Arizona didn’t even make the tournament this year. Instead, we have Virginia, in a Final Four for the first time since 1984; Texas Tech and Auburn, who are in the Final Four for the first time in their programs’ histories; and Michigan State, who are in the Final Four for the tenth time but who have not won a title since 2000. The favorite to win the whole thing is now Virginia, with just three losses on the season, and the underdog is Auburn, but there is a sense that anything could happen in these last three contests. As you consider your betting on the 2019 Final Four, we have seven things for you to keep in mind.

7 Things to Know Before Betting the 2019 Final Four

Auburn will miss Chuma Okeke at some point

The talented forward is one of Auburn’s best players — but he blew out an ACL in the Sweet Sixteen round, which is why Auburn was a 4 ½-point underdog against Kentucky in the Elite Eight. When the Wildcats opened up a 30-20 lead on Auburn, it looked like Kentucky would beat their SEC rivals for the third time this season. Auburn went on a 40-30 run to close the game and force overtime and then won the extra frame in a 17-11 scoring frenzy. But Okeke’s absence inside will become even more important against a grinding halfcourt team like Virginia. Can Auburn overcome his absence again?

Virginia and Texas Tech don’t allow their opponents to score much

The over/under for Virginia-Auburn is 131 points. The over-under for Texas Tech-Michigan State is 132 ½ points. Auburn has gone over in their last five games, while Michigan State is under in five of their last six games. In the case of Virginia-Auburn, Auburn also faced a grinding pace when Kentucky tried to slow the game down but then the scoring took off in the second half. Virginia’s defense is at another level, though, and I see that game going under. Neither Texas Tech nor Michigan State likes to run and gun — so one profitable parlay could involve taking both games to go under.

Texas Tech has been money for bettors

As we wrote in an earlier article, we think the Red Raiders are the real deal and will win out to take the national title. They haven’t just been eking out wins and leaving bettors hanging, either. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the Big Dance so far, and they have only failed to cover twice in their last 14 games, dating back to February 4.

Cassius Winston refuses to let the Spartans lose

The Michigan State point guard is now the front-runner for Most Outstanding Player in this year’s NCAA tournament. When Michigan State edged out Duke, 68-67, in the Elite Eight, Kenny Goins was the hero with his late three-ball, but the Spartans would not have been within range to catch Duke with that bomb if Winston had not put up 20 points and 10 boards. When the Spartans have had other key players on the shelf with injuries, Winston has carried them this far. Can he bring them a title?

Virginia has also been money for bettors

When the Cavaliers have been a favorite of no more than six points, they have covered in 15 of their last 17 games. Why? Their grinding pace of play tends to keep games close, and their ability to hit clutch threes means that opponents have a hard time building a lead of any size against them. The Cavaliers do drain the shot clock each possession, but their accuracy from the floor means that they get a lot out of each trip down the floor.

Did Purdue show teams how to crack Virginia’s defense?

Purdue pushed Virginia to overtime in the Elite Eight, putting up 75 points on the Cavaliers (including the extra time). Ball movement and tremendous shooting from the Boilermakers, particularly Carsen Edwards, made the difference for Purdue. Can Auburn put up a similar show?

This isn’t the NBA

In the NBA, defense doesn’t win championships anymore. The game has sped up, and shots raining from all over the place along with pushing offense in transition has proven to be the key for Golden State’s recent dominance. In the NCAA, though, there just aren’t as many pure scorers, and teams that can put together a stout defense in addition to having enough scorers tend to advance. So don’t expect the same sort of track meet in the Final Four that you see in the NBA — and bet accordingly.