Kentucky vs Kansas State Sweet 16 March Madness Betting Preview

Kentucky and Kansas State meet Thursday night in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Both teams are fortunate that the 1-seed and the 4-seed in the region (Virginia and Arizona) fell to UMBC and Buffalo, respectively, giving them opponents in the round of 32 that were not nearly as stout. Kentucky routed Buffalo in the second round, while Kansas State was only able to put up 50 points in the second round, but that was just enough to escape UMBC. Let’s check out your March Madness betting picks for this matchup between the fifth and ninth seeds.

Kentucky vs Kansas State Sweet 16 March Madness Betting Preview

Walking into the #Sweet16 like … pic.twitter.com/mrEdkFcI55

— Kentucky Basketball (@KentuckyMBB) March 20, 2018

When: Saturday, March 17, 2018, 9:37pm ET Where: Philips Arena, Atlanta TV: CBS Radio: None Live Stream: March Madness Live NCAAB Odds: Kentucky -5, O/U 138

Why should you bet on Kentucky?

Kentucky rolled to the championship of the SEC Tournament and has not looked back since. Their most recent win was a 95-75 shellacking of the Buffalo Bulls, thanks to 27 points, six assists and six boards from freshman point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as well as 22 points from Hamidou Diallo. Offense has not been a problem for Kentucky all season, but the latest “one-and-done” squad that John Calipari has assembled was having a hard time meshing in his defensive scheme, leading to some troubling losses in the early going that was Kentucky drop out of the AP Top 25. However, things have started to click, and the team finished 24th in defensive efficiency, permitting 95.6 points per 100 possessions, and 20th in offensive efficiency, scoring 116.6 points per 100 possessions. This is a skilled, athletic team that is on a hot streak, and their ability to generate offensive rebounds means that even when shots aren’t falling, they can extend possessions. If you look at the numbers, Kentucky has looked solid against the spread lately, covering in each of their last four non-conference games and each of their last five games against a team with a record above .500. If you like Kentucky to cover, you see them pouring the offense on a Kansas State team that has a decent defense but doesn’t have the offense to score at video-game speed.

Why should you put your money on Kansas State?

In their win over UMBC on Sunday, Kansas State was ice-cold from the floor, making just 1 of 12 shots from downtown. They only had two players in double figures (Barry Brown with 18 and Makol Mawien with 11). They also had ridiculous ball security, coughing the ball up 18 times. Their defense was what stood tall, as they held UMBC under 30 percent shooting from the floor. Their offensive efficiency has been much better over the course of the season (110.7 points per 100 possessions), and they may have their top scorer, Dean Wade, back for the Sweet 16 (so check the latest injury updates before locking in your wagers). He scores 16.5 points per game and shoots 44 percent from downtown, so he was a presence that K-State sorely missed against UMBC. Their defense permits just 95.5 points per 100 possessions, ranked 20th in the nation, and they have a 21.5% turnover rate. Kansas State has not fared all that well against the spread in recent relevant games, as they have covered just twice in their last eight games on a neutral site. They have also covered just once in their last five games against SEC competition. If you like K-State, you see that defense frustrating a young Kentucky team and wearing them into mistake after mistake.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Kansas State has played opponents tough this year, winning some Big 12 games that few expected them to win, but Kentucky is playing at a much higher level right now, and they have considerably more talent as well. I predict a final score of Kentucky 81, Kansas State 69.