NCAAB Lines & Analysis Xavier vs. Texas Southern 2018 First Round

It’s not often that a team with a sub-.500 record makes into the Big Dance, but Texas Southern did it, winning the SWAC Tournament despite a 15-19 record on the season. Then they took on NC-Central in the First Four play-in in Dayton and rolled to a 64-46 win, using a run-and-gun tempo to take down a slower opponent. Xavier put together a strong record on the season, earning a top regional seed despite falling to Providence in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament. Xavier and Texas Southern will meet for the first time on Friday evening. Take a look at our NCAAB lines  perspective on this matchup.

NCAAB Lines & Analysis Xavier vs. Texas Southern 2018 First Round

Friday’s matchup is set! Xavier will face Texas Southern at 7:20 PM EST on @TBSNetwork. #MarchMadness #LetsMarch pic.twitter.com/VIGVmQmBeB

— Xavier Basketball (@XavierMBB) March 15, 2018

When: Friday, March 16, 2018, 7:20pm ET Where: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville TV: TBS Radio: None Live Stream: March Madness Live NCAAB Lines: Xavier -21.5

Why should you bet on the Musketeers?

Xavier fell to the Providence juggernaut that almost toppled Villanova in the Big East final, pushing the Wildcats to overtime before losing by ten. However, Xavier’s loss was largely of their own doing, as they imploded in the second half. The Musketeers led by 14 at the intermission and by 17 with just over 15 minutes remaining in regulation, but the Friars finished the game on a 40-20 run. The Musketeers’ shooting went ice cold, and they ended up shooting under 37 percent for the game and making just 5 of 22 shots from behind the arc. Kerem Kanter led the way with 18 points, but they could not make key shots when they counted. That hasn’t been typical of Xavier on the season, as they ranked #11 in the nation by scoring 84.3 points per game. Their rebounding is also strong as they pull down 38.4 boards per game, good for 42nd overall. Their defense is their weaker unit, as they permit 74.5 points per game, 235th in the nation. They do shoot well as a team (49.1%) and have made a good percentage of their shots from three-point land (just under 37 percent), and they make almost 80 percent of their free throws. Trevon Bluiett leads the team with 19.5 points per game, and J.P. Macura adds 12.2 points. Xavier has covered the spread in five of their last six games after a straight up loss, as well as in 24 of their last 31 NCAA tournament contests.

Why should you put your money on the Tigers?

Texas Southern’s record is a little misleading, because their non-conference schedule was brutal — they started the season with an 0-13 record. However, they went 12-6 in conference play and then cruised to a tournament victory. In the First Four win, they took a ten-point lead at the half and did not let NC-Central get closer than eight points after the intermission. They held NC Central without a point for over seven minutes in the second half as they built on their lead. If Texas Southern had been able to shoot well (they hit just 36.8% of their shots from the floor), this game would have been much more of a rout. They went just six for 24 from downtown, but their quick guard play kept NC Central from settling into their shots, as they clanked all 14 of their shots from behind the arc. The Tigers do get their points, averaging 77.6 points per contest on the season. However, they are 132nd in rebounding, which suggests that they don’t get a lot of second chance points. Their weakness on the season has been their defense, as they have permitted an average of 79.7 points per contest. However, their defense improved dramatically in SWAC play, once they got away from that tougher non-conference competition. Unfortunately, their toughest test of the year comes Friday night.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Xavier should win this game — but can they win it by 21? Remember that Texas Southern racked up their wins in SWAC play and against a co-16th seed in the First Four. Xavier has the guard play and the inside personnel to score at will against Texas Southern, a team that has struggled on defense against most teams this season. I predict a final score of Xavier 88, Texas Southern 61.