2018 College Football Championship ATS Pick: Alabama vs Georgia

2018 College Football Championship ATS Pick: Alabama vs Georgia

Written by on January 3, 2018

The Georgia Bulldogs played in their first Rose Bowl since 1943 — and it turned out well for them as they emerged with a 54-48 overtime win over the Oklahoma Sooners. Now they have a chance to bring another long-running streak to an end, as they contend for their first College Football Championship since 1980. However, an imposing foe stands in their way, as the Alabama Crimson Tide made their way into the College Football Playoff after an undefeated Wisconsin team failed to put away Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and then shut down the Clemson Tigers, 24-6, in the Sugar Bowl. Can Georgia shed their long-standing reputation for folding on big stages, or will Alabama make it five national titles in the last nine years? Here’s a look at the NCAAF odds to bet against the spread.

2018 College Football Championship ATS Pick: Alabama vs Georgia

When: Monday, January 8, 2018, 8:00pm ET Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta TV: ESPN Radio: ESPN Radio Live Stream: WatchESPN NCAAF Odds: Alabama (-4)

Why should you put your money on the Crimson Tide?

No team permitted fewer points per game than the Alabama defense this past year — at fewer than 12 points per game, they simply kept other teams from finding ways to challenge them. They did even better than that in the Sugar Bowl, holding Clemson to just six points. A lot of people (including yours truly) pointed out that Alabama’s injury rash at the linebacker position made them vulnerable — and it did in the Iron Bowl, but everyone but Shaun Dion Hamilton had returned for the Sugar Bowl. Anfernee Jennings did sprain his knee against Clemson, and his play at linebacker was huge in the win for Alabama, so keep an eye on his injury report. Even so, this is a terrific defense that Georgia will struggle to beat. This isn’t the most powerful offense that Alabama has had under Nick Saban. Jalen Hurts has done a terrific job of leading the offense without turning the ball over (with just one pick on the season). Against Clemson, his numbers weren’t spectacular, but he threw a pair of touchdown passes and took advantage of the team winning the field position battle to get enough points on the board for the win. Letting the defense lead and following the rhythm of the game is how Hurts will lead the Alabama offense to another national title.

Why should you bet on the Bulldogs?

If you watched the second half and overtime of the Rose Bowl, you might think that Georgia’s defense looks just as scary as Alabama’s. Yes, Oklahoma put up 17 points after halftime, but time after time the Bulldogs got stops that put the ball back in the hands of their offense, and the Bulldogs were able to roar back and force overtime. The problem came in the first half, as Oklahoma put up 31 points, and over the course of the whole game, the Sooners rolled up over 500 yards of total offense. The Alabama defense isn’t nearly as porous as that of Oklahoma (remember, they lost to Iowa State and permitted 41 points to a Baylor team that won one game all season), so Georgia can’t be nearly as generous in the first half against the Crimson Tide. The real question in this game is what Georgia’s offense can do against Alabama’s defense. That defense did give up plenty of points to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and Georgia has a running attack that pounds the ball as mercilessly as Auburn’s did. However, Auburn also got a transcendent game out of quarterback Jarrett Stidham that night. Can Jake Fromm provide those key passes for first downs when the running game gets stymied? That will tell us whether this is a classic tilt, or whether Alabama runs away with this.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I’m kind of surprised that this line came out at just four points for the Tide. Nick Saban has an 11-0 career record coaching against his former assistants. Can Georgia move the ball enough to stay with the Tide? I think this will be a close game — but I see Alabama covering, with a final of Tide 20, Bulldogs 13.