NFL Betting Projections for AFC Conference Winners

The Los Angeles Chargers pulled off a huge comeback win on Thursday night in Kansas City, scoring a touchdown with four seconds remaining in regulation — and then a daring two-point conversion — to beat the Chiefs, 29-28. The Chargers and Chiefs are both 11-3 now in the wake of that result. The Chargers need to finish ahead of the Chiefs to win the division, as Kansas City has a better record in the AFC West. However, that win showed the strides Los Angeles has taken after their 1-1 start and shows that the Patriots aren’t the only challengers for the AFC crown that Kansas City could struggle to beat. We have some NFL betting predictions for how the AFC Conference side of the bracket will turn out, as you look at your futures wagering.

NFL Betting Projections for AFC Conference Winners

For the first time since 1985… …Los Angeles has two teams in the NFL playoffs @Chargers @RamsNFL

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 14, 2018

The Chargers will catch and pass the Chiefs

We also made this prediction yesterday, and the first part of the plan came through, as Philip Rivers delivered in the clutch and led the Chargers to a huge road win. Now Kansas City has to visit Seattle, one of the hotter teams in the league right now, in a Sunday night extravaganza. The Seahawks just shut down Minnesota — also one of the top offenses in the league, at least on paper — and they have a raucous home crowd. The Chiefs do finish at home against Oakland, but the Raiders just beat Pittsburgh last week. So there are no more gimmes. I don’t see the Chiefs beating Seattle at this point. The Chargers host Baltimore next week before finishing their season in Denver. Denver beat the Chargers out in Los Angeles, but the confidence that has to come from winning in Kansas City should bolster the Chargers. Baltimore will have rookie Lamar Jackson at quarterback, and as good as Jackson has looked, I’m not sure he’s ready for the Chargers’ defense.

The Patriots will have the other bye

Sure, New England has to play at Pittsburgh this week, but the Steelers have lost two in a row (to Denver and Oakland), so the Pats should win out — they finish at home against Buffalo and the New York Jets. There are some defensive questions the Patriots have to answer, as they got torched by Ryan Tannehill in that 34-33 loss last week, but there’s nothing like embarrassment to make Bill Belichick and Tom Brady work even harder for the next challenge. The Pittsburgh defense has been almost nonexistent the last two weeks.

What about the Colts?

Indianapolis has won six of seven, including a win last week over Houston, to sit at 7-6 and rescue a season that had started 1-5. They still need some help to get into the postseason, and they have a big test this Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys come to town. However, after that, they host a New York Giants team that has a Swiss-cheese defense and then finish the season in Tennessee. A 10-6 season (and maybe even a 9-7 season) could get the Colts that sixth seed. What we do know is that Andrew Luck is throwing the ball as well as he ever has, and that the Colts are getting defensive stops when they need them. Of the contenders who currently sit outside the top six, the Colts are one of the toughest.

Can Miami finish 10-6?

There are few teams as wildly inconsistent as the Miami Dolphins this year. They have had Ryan Tannehill and Brock Osweiler starting at quarterback. They went through a stretch when they lost four of five. However, they’ve also beaten Chicago and New England this season (but they’ve also lost to Cincinnati). So this team that started 3-0 currently sits at 7-6 after their wild lateral play knocked off the Patriots last week. Now they head to Minnesota, a game the Vikings should easily win — but the Vikings’ offense seems stuck in quicksand right now. If Miami can pull off another shocker, they host Jacksonville (dumpster fire) and finish at Buffalo, who they beat two weeks ago. A Miami wild card is not out of the realm of possibility — if they can knock off the Vikings.