Last year’s AFC Championship was a thrilling one, as the New England Patriots just held off the Kansas City Chiefs, winning at Arrowhead Stadium in overtime. This year, the Chiefs and Patriots are the co-favorites to win the conference championship again and advance to Super Bowl LIV. Both teams went through some significant roster changes, although the loss of Rob Gronkowski to retirement leaves the Patriots’ offense with changes — as does the loss of Kareem Hunt for Kansas City. If you plan to include conference champions among your Super Bowl LIV betting picks, check out our thoughts on the top five (including ties) favorites from the AFC.
Betting Stats for Top Five AFC Super Bowl LIV Favorites
Kansas City Chiefs
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: 11/4
Kansas City is banking on Carlos Hyde to fill the gap left by Kareem Hunt’s departure. They added safety Tyrann Mathieu and defensive end Alex Okafor to bolster a unit that, in the final analysis, simply gave up too much for the Chiefs to advance to a Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes II might be even better in 2019, though, as his completion rate on deep balls down the field was lower than it could have been, thanks to some key drops. But can Andy Reid really manage his way to a Super Bowl?
New England Patriots
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: 11/4
The Patriots signed Ben Watson from New Orleans and Dwayne Allen at tight end, and they brought in injury-prone wideout Demaryius Thomas from the Denver Broncos. They bolstered their defense with defensive end Michael Bennett and linebacker Jamie Collins. The real question, though, is how far the Patriots can advance in the postseason without Rob Gronkowski. They still have Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan to catch balls down the field, though, and they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: 6/1
The Colts may slide down this list in the next few days, because quarterback Andrew Luck has a calf injury that appears to affect his high ankle as well. The team added Devin Funchess at wideout and Spencer Ware at tailback, along with Justin Houston on the D-line and Pierre Desir at cornerback. However, without a healthy Luck, the Colts will go nowhere.
Los Angeles Chargers
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: 7/1
The Chargers lost wideout Tyrell Williams as well as cornerback Jason Verrett and defensive tackle Darius Philon. They brought in a pair of defensive tackles to replace Philon: Brandon Mebane and Jerry Tillery, and they added Tyrod Taylor as a backup to Philip Rivers, who will turn 38 this season. On paper, the Chargers have a ton of talent, but whether they have the mental strength for a deep run is a real question.
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: 10/1
No team has the hype going into 2019 that the Cleveland Browns do, as they have added tailback Kareem Hunt and wideout Odell Beckham Jr to an offense that was already exciting. They added Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson to strengthen their defensive line. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is the unquestioned leader of a team that, at least right now, doesn’t seem to have a ceiling.
In Pittsburgh, Big Ben returns, but Le’Veon Bell is a New York Jet, and Antonio Brown is in Oakland. James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster are now the top tailback and wideout, respectively. Can they help the Steelers contend? What about that porous defense?