How to Evaluate 2018 Super Bowl Futures Odds

The NFL draft saw several teams revamp their rosters, but there has not been a significant amount of movement when it comes to the odds to win the Super Bowl. Each of the top six teams is already seen as ready for the season ahead, adding rookies to fill in the smaller needs in the roster. As far as the teams who drafted first, three of the four teams with picks in the first five of the opening round saw their odds to win the Lombardi Trophy get longer once the draft ended. The biggest change in odds, in a direction toward contending, that came after the draft was the Colts, who had sat at +6000 before the draft. They spent two of their first three picks on offensive linemen, picking up Quenton Nelson, so that they can give Andrew Luck some protection. But Carolina — who added DJ Moore to be the top receiver and Donte Jackson to catch passes out of the slot, as well as playmakers Ian Thomas and Rashaan Gaulden — saw their Super Bowl odds drop a bit after the draft.

How to Evaluate 2018 Super Bowl Futures Odds

It’s our turn, ATL and we are READY! #ATLSB53 02.03.19 || Mercedes-Benz Stadium #SuperBowl pic.twitter.com/7b0mi6XO99

— Atlanta Super Bowl (@atlsuperbowl53) February 5, 2018

Current Super Bowl 53 Odds

• New England Patriots                                                                                     +500
• Philadelphia Eagles                                                                                        +800
• Los Angeles Rams                                                                                         +900
• Pittsburgh Steelers                                                                                         +1000
• Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers                                                        +1200
• San Francisco 49ers                                                                                       +1500
• New Orleans Saints                                                                                        +2200
• Houston Texans                                                                                             +2500
• Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos,        +3000 Seattle Seahawks
• Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers                 +3500
• Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts                           +4000
• Tennessee Titans                                                                                           +4500
• Detroit Lions                                                                                                    +6000
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers                                                                                 +6500
• New York Giants                                                                                             +7500
• Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals                                                      +8000
• Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears,               +10000 Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets

One interesting note from the draft was that the New England Patriots considered moving up to the second spot to take Baker Mayfield until the Cleveland Browns picked him with the #1 draft choice overall. The Patriots basically swapped quarterbacks with San Francisco last year, trading Jimmy Garoppolo to the Bay Area for a draft choice, and then picking up Brian Hoyer (whom the 49ers put on waivers after the trade) to back up Tom Brady. Hoyer is still the backup, and we’ve seen what he can do on the field (and what he can’t). So while the Patriots are the favorite, Tom Brady won’t be able to play dominant ball forever. Plus there’s the drama still festering in New England — what about the tension between Bill Belichick and Brady over the TB12 training facility and Brady’s favorite trainer? What about the tension that has to still be bubbling because of the mysterious benching of Malcolm Butler in the Super Bowl? Rob Gronkowski reluctantly decided to return, but how dominant will he be? I’m not sure I’d pick the Patriots to win here. Philadelphia expects Carson Wentz to be ready to play in the regular season opener, but it’s possible that his knee will balk, or that he will show some rust in the early going. Nick Foles returns as his backup — and as the reigning Super Bowl MVP. Michael Bennett comes to Philadelphia to contribute to an already stacked pass rush, and the Eagles come in even stronger than they finished last year — if Wentz is back and healthy.

Which Teams Should You Check Out?

I’m a little surprised by how high the Rams are on that list. Yes, they rolled to an NFC West title, but then they lay down for Atlanta in a home playoff game, and the NFC West just got a lot tougher with the emergence of Garoppolo on the 49ers. Will the Rams continue to progress, or do they take a step back this year? Pittsburgh has some questions to answer on their defense, particularly after they took that torching from the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship. If the Steelers can’t play better defense this year, they won’t get to the Super Bowl. Ben Roethlisberger’s shelf life has to be running down, and when that happens, the dynamic offense won’t be able to carry the Steelers deep into the playoffs.