How to Handicap the 2019 NFL Offseason

Casual sports betting enthusiasts tune in one week at a time, picking a game or two here and there against the spread, maybe putting together a parlay to make things more interesting. However, the casual bettor does not typically pile up a stack of cash this way; while you can win now and then using this method, you’re not going to build up sustainable profits over time. Are you looking to turn sports betting into a way to make some money over the long haul? Then you need to do the work in the summer to get ready. Here are some tips for you to follow if you want to profit from the action in the NFL odds.

How to Handicap the 2019 NFL Offseason

John Fox believes Bears had NFL’s worst offseasonhttps://t.co/Uco3kU6A0z pic.twitter.com/r9W960Mhc1

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) June 18, 2019

Watch free agent movement during the offseason

When the 2019 campaign opens, the rosters will be significantly different — not just in terms of the marquee players but also in terms of the worker bees — the linemen on both sides of the ball, the linebackers and the secondaries. Consider the erosion that took place on the New England defense after they won last year’s Super Bowl. Not surprisingly, Bill Belichick has moved to fill many of those holes. However, the gap that Rob Gronkowski leaves in the offense with his retirement remains largely open. How many teams have filled gaps — even though much of the betting public might not know about it? The research that you do will make your sports wagers pay off.

Research the newest crop of rookies

Remember when Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott became the first pair of rookies to start at quarterback and tailback in a Pro Bowl? Elliott was a touted back because of his performance at Ohio State, but Prescott came on when Tony Romo suffered a back injury in a preseason game, and many thought the Dallas offense would suffer as a result. After all, the last time Romo went down, such retreads as Matt Cassel and Brandon Weeden could not budge the Dallas offense. This rookie duo led the Cowboys to an NFC East title. Can Dwayne Haskins bring similar glory to Washington as their rookie quarterback? Knowing your rookies’ tendencies and evaluating their potential in the pro game are essential steps in handicapping.

Keep an eye on team schedules

The NFL designs its schedules to keep parity in the league. The winner in each division plays the winners of the other divisions in their conference the next year; the last-place team plays the last-place teams in the other divisions. The purpose of this is to help the bottom-feeders work their way back up. A trip to London for a game can have a significant impact on a team’s performance for a week or two afterward, and a West Coast team playing a 1:00pm game on the East Coast faces a significant disadvantage because of the time change. Also, some teams end up on three-game road trips, while others get three-game home stands. These trends matter over the course of the season.

Go over your own performance in past years

If you have tried to make money via sports betting in the past, go back through the wagers from last year, or multiple past seasons, and see which bets made you the most money — and which bets cost you the most. Are you biased toward particular teams? Do you perform better with underdogs, or with favorites? Understanding the flaws in your own strategy is an excellent way to improve your performance this year. If there are some statistics that you always use, maybe finding a new statistic (and new metrics are always emerging) to understand and then to put to work for you could make the difference when it comes to betting profits. You are not the only one out there working to improve your betting outcomes, so the harder you work, the more likely you are to walk away with cash at the end of the season.