UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Lee MMA Betting Preview

This Saturday night features a stacked UFC Fight Night card, headlined by a bout between Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee. The action will take place in Atlantic City, as Boardwalk Hall will host all of the bouts. The early preliminary bouts will be available on UFC Fight Pass, and the rest of the prelims and the main card will be on FS1, with the bout between Barboza and Lee set for 10:00pm Eastern time. Check out our MMA betting preview of the main bout as well as the list of matchups leading up to it.

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Lee MMA Betting Preview

FS1 Main Card

• Edson Barboza vs Kevin Lee
• Frankie Edgar vs Cub Swanson
• Chase Sherman vs Justin Willis
• David Branch vs Thiago Santos
• Alijamain Sterling vs Brett Johns
• Jim Miller vs Dan Hooker

FS1 Prelims

• Ryan LaFlare vs Alex Garcia
• Magomed Bibulatov vs Ulka Sasaki
• Siyar Bahadurzada vs Luan Chagas
• Corey Anderson vs Patrick Cummins

Fight Pass Prelims

• Leslie Smith vs Aspen Ladd
• Merab Dvalishvili vs Ricky Simon
• Tony Martin vs Keita Nakamura

Preview: Edson Barboza (+110) vs Kevin Lee (-130)

Edson Barboza comes in with a record of 19-5, with 11 of those wins coming via the knockout. He has won six of his last nine bouts, although his last fight, back in December, ended in a loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. That fight went to the cards despite the fact that Nurmagomedov managed to land 154 strikes during the fight, and he’ll need that iron chin against Lee. He averages 3.79 significant strikes per minute, landing 40.8% of his punches. He has posted a takedown average of 0.54, with a 53.8% accuracy rating. Against Lee, Barboza is trying to avoid losing two fights in a row for the first time ever. He looks to win by landing shots by the busload, which is why he prevails so often by knockout. He is more of a stand-up fighter than a grappler, and he brings enough power with the vast majority of his blows to bring the fight to an end with just about any punch. While he does better standing than grappling, he does well defending against opponents who want to take him to the floor — in two of his last three fights, his opponent has not been able to get him onto the mat. Kevin Lee brings a 16-4 record into the octagon, with eight of those victories coming via submission. In his last eight fights, Lee has won six, although his last bout, back in October, didn’t go his way, as Tony Ferguson got the better of him. That saw him lose the UFC lightweight belt even though he landed more strikes and put together three takedowns, as the loss came via submission. Lee also brings punches in volume, landing 3.64 significant strikes per minute, and he is slightly more accurate than Barboza, at 42 percent. Since Lee also has never lost two fights in a row, one streak will come to an end in this fight. Lee excels in the takedown, having pulled off a dozen combined in his last four fights, and the only time he has lost via submission was against Ferguson. He averages seven times as many takedowns as Barboza (3.45) but is slightly less accurate, at 42.4 percent. When it comes to standing and fighting, Lee is improving, but he gets his victories by taking his opponents to the ground and either submitting them or getting enough points to win. Barboza has the size advantage and should win if he can keep the fight upright. He did get taken down in his last loss, but in his career that has been an extremely difficult endeavor. Lee brings a ton of aggression in his approach to grappling, and he has produced at least one takedown in six straight fights, a streak that goes back to his 2015 bout against Leonardo Santos. Because Lee has that advantage, and because Barboza went down via the takedown in his last fight, I see Lee winning this one.