UFC Fight Night 129 Preview: Maia vs Usman

UFC remains in South America for a second consecutive week, moving to Santiago, Chile, to make its first appearance ever in that Pacific nation. The main event features welterweight contender Kamaru Usman against Demian Mara, who is standing in for Santiago Ponzinibbio, who had to withdraw due to injury. The co-main event features strawweight prospects Tatiana Suarez (the TUF 23 winner) and Alexa Grasso). The early preliminary card starts at 6:30pm Eastern time on UFC Fight Pass, and the preliminary card gets underway on Saturday night at 8pm Eastern time on FS2, with the main card starting two hours later on FS1. Check out our MMA odds on each tilt as well as our sports betting insights on the main event and some of the other bouts as well.

UFC Fight Night 129 Preview: Maia vs Usman

Main Card

• Demian Maia (+305) vs Kamaru Usman (-365)
• Alexa Grasso (+380) vs Tatiana Suarez (-475)
• Jared Cannonier (+220) vs Dominick Reyes (-260)
• Andrea Lee (-335) vs Veronica Macedo (+275)
• Guido Cannetti (+140) vs Diego Rivas (-160)
• Chad Laprise (+175) vs Vicente Luque (-210)

Preliminary Card

• Zak Cummings (-155) vs Michel Prazeres (+135)
• Brandon Moreno (+110) vs Alexandre Pantoja (-130)
• Poliana Botelho (-165) vs Syuri Kondo (+145)
• Gabriel Benitez (-200) vs Humberto Bandenay (+170)

Early Preliminary Card

• Enrique Barzola (-195) vs Brandon Davis (+160)
• Henry Briones (+230) vs Frankie Saenz (-270)
• Claudio Puelles (+250) vs Felipe Silva (-300)

Demian Maia vs Kamaru Usman features redemption for Usman, after a fashion, because he has been looking for a top-five matchup in his division. Maia represents a completely different sort of opponent than Ponzinibbio would have — with Maia featuring solid jiu-jitsu skills that are elite in all of MMA. If Maia can get Usman down onto the mat, he could get an early submission. He pushes forward, using body kicks and a straight left to keep opponents from trying to work around him. However, most of his early strikes are just decoys, particularly in the early going, so that he has plenty of energy later in the bout. As his opponent tires, then he moves in and pushes toward the cage. Once he has his opponent close enough to the fence, he will push him into it and either bring his opponent to the mat or start working his way around to the rear. One common tactic that he uses is to pull the adversary down to half guard and then move into a sweep or single. Usman also has considerable skill in wrestling, as he is a former Division II national champion in the sport. He brings immense strength to the fight, with the result that his opponents often end up having to submit or be suffocated. He has a 6-0 record in UFC to this point, having won TUF in season 21. He also has considerable power when it comes to striking. His flaws are in the area of head work and defense, because his movement toward pressure opens him up to more strikes than most MMA fighters. He was able to dismantle Sergio Moraes in his last fight back in September, but he had to absorb some bombs from a fighter not known for bringing big power. Maia has lost two straight decisions to wrestlers he was not able to bring them to the ground. Neither Tyron Woodley nor Colby Covington have the strength of Usman, and Maia has a significant hill to climb to beat a fighter of Usman’s strength. There is also the question of age, as Usman is 31 — but Maia is 40. UFC Fight Night Betting Prediction: Usman wins via submission Alexa Grasso vs Tatiana Suarez features a promising UFC newcomer in Grasso, who dominated Heather Jo Clark in her promotion debut but then took her first career loss in her second UFC fight against Felice Herrig. Against Clark, she was able to use her advantage in footwork to move around her opponent and fire in enough jabs to open up space for combinations. She also has a solid kick game that can dismantle an opponent in a hurry. However, she tends to lose focus sometimes, and that’s what happened against Herrig. Herrig slid into Grasso’s pocket and delivered some stunning combos, slowing Grasso’s ascent to the top. Suarez won a bronze medal at the worlds freestyle wrestling competition, but thyroid cancer and a neck injury kept her from the Olympics. However, she has turned into one of the top female wrestlers in MMA, especially at the strawweight class. She doesn’t do much boxing, preferring to work in and tie up opponents, and I see her doing this to Grasso. UFC Fight Night Betting Prediction: Suarez wins via submission