2018 Home Run Derby Betting Odds & Preview

A lot of the big names in Major League Baseball as far as home run totals aren’t taking part in this year’s Home Run Derby. Aaron Judge is demurring after seeing his skyrocket totals shoot up after last year’s competition. Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, Mike Trout and some of the biggest bats in MLB are staying home. However, we have Bryce Harper from Washington as the favorite, and seven other hitters who can rake. Take a look at the sports betting odds in what should be a wide-open field, as none of the eight sluggers have ever won a derby before. The MLB betting  action gets underway on Monday night at 8:00pm Eastern, on ESPN.

2018 Home Run Derby Betting Odds & Preview

Will @Bharper3407 win the @TMobile #HRDerby on @espn in front of the home fans?@MLBTheShow thinks so… pic.twitter.com/EPDHGiSokW

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 16, 2018

Contender Odds

• Bryce Harper                                      +225
• Kyle Schwarber                                  +333
• Jesus Aguilar                                      +500
• Javier Baez                                         +550
• Rhys Hoskins                                      +650
• Max Muncy                                         +700
• Freddie Freeman                                +850
• Alex Bregman                                     +1100

First of all, Nationals Park is a stadium friendly to the home run, ranked 12th in MLB, so we should see plenty of bombs in the derby. Bryce Harper has not hit well for average but has knocked 23 home runs this year, on pace to beat his career best of 42 (2015). In his career, he has 86 home runs at Nationals Park and will come in with plenty of motivation to show off for his home crowd — so long as that pressure doesn’t get to him. Kyle Schwarber has an uppercut swing that makes him sort of a feast-or-famine hitter, as he will launch some moon shots when he makes solid contact, but he also misses a lot. Over his last 682 at-bats, though, he has mashed 47 long balls. He will look a lot like Justin Bour did in 2017, sending a lot of big shots deep into the night. Jesus Aguilar is the current MLB home run leader with 24 long balls and has 40 home runs in his last 544 at-bats. He has a lot of muscle, who he doesn’t have to swing out of his shoes to get the ball going. One risk for him, as with other larger hitters, is the fatigue factors, which can lead to poorer results in the later rounds. Javier Baez has hit 18 long balls on the season, so he’s definitely got his career best (23) in his sights. Baez is one of those people who swings from the heels, so if he can make contact, he can make some hay here. He would be the fourth winner from the Chicago Cubs if he can prevail — the Cubs are just one behind the Yankees for all-time derby winners. Rhys Hoskins hit 18 home runs in his first 34 career games last year, the fastest in MLB history. He only has 14 this year, as pitchers have figured him out a bit, but he has the sort of swing that can send balls into the night. He has a great track record at Nationals Park, having hit four home runs in just 10 games. Max Muncy made it to 20 career home runs in just 183 at-bats, faster than any other player in the storied history of the Dodgers. He has 22 total for the year, and he can mash to all fields. At Nationals Park, he has a home run in 13 at-bats, but it’s a lot easier when you’re facing a friend throwing soft pitches at you. Freddie Freeman has 16 home runs on the season and should easily hit the 20-homer mark for the sixth time. He’s not one of the biggest power hitters in the game, but he is smart with his swings and should be able to hit well without wearing himself out. He faces Washington a lot as he plays for Atlanta and has seven home runs at Nationals Park, in 63 career games. Alex Bregman has hit 20 home runs already this year — a career high, and he is hitting in some of the less hitter-friendly American League parks. He is a long shot here, but long shots have come through in the Derby before.