2021 British Open PGA Betting Preview: Jon Rahm is the Favorite

The 2021 edition of the British Open, or the Open Championship (as it is called in Britain) will take place at Royal St. George’s golf course. It is a shorter course compared to what has greeted PGA Tour players in recent months, with a par-70 layout, so big bombers like Bryson DeChambeau will not necessarily be rewarded. There is a premium on finding the fairway, due to the thick rough and the pot bunkers that are a part of golf in Britain. So as you consider your sports betting options for this weekend, look at stats like driver accuracy and Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. There is always wind at the Open, which makes accuracy and consistency even more important. Sand saves are another important statistic because of the deep and treacherous bunkers on this side of the Atlantic.

Check out the PGA odds for the field as well as our wagering suggestions.

PGA News: 2021 British Open Betting Preview

Top Contender Odds

Shane Lowry returns as the defending champion, seeking the first repeat victory since Padraig Harrington pulled off the double at Carnoustie in 2007 and Royal Birkdale in 2008. Tiger Woods had won the previous two years, at St. Andrews in 2005 and Royal Liverpool in 2006. Lowry rolled to a six-stroke victory in 2019 at Royal Portrush, finishing with a 63 on the last day, setting a course record.

Russell Henley (+10000) makes for an interesting sleeper. In this field, he is in the top ten in sand save percentage, and his 0.901 Strokes Gained: Approach the Green is also in the top ten. He is 37th in driver accuracy in this field, and he came in 13th at the U.S. Open. Given these odds, he’s definitely worth a flyer. His driver distance (289.6) is just 163rd on the PGA Tour, which could cause him issues on some of the longer holes, but his accuracy and consistency should compensate. It helps that Royal St. George’s only features two holes over 500 yards.

Jon Rahm comes in as the favorite, but there are several compelling reasons. His wind play is elite, as he has gained over 60 strokes over his last 24 rounds played under windy conditions. His Strokes Gained: Approach the Green numbers rank seventh in this field. His sand save percentage (52.2%) and driver accuracy rank (65th) are around the middle of the field, but his recent play and his overall tee-to-green performance still make him a solid betting choice despite the lack of value as the favorite.

Collin Morikawa (+2500) leads the PGA Tour with 1.502 Strokes Gained: Approach the Green per round. Paul Casey sits almost a half-stroke back of Morikawa, in second place. Morikawa sits in 11th place in this field in driver accuracy, which should keep him out of danger with the windy conditions. His driver distance (294.9) is 114th in this field, but again, this is a shorter course, so that should not hinder him significantly.

Bryson DeChambeau offers a lot of value, thanks in large part to his sudden caddy change during the Rocket Mortgage Classic and his implosion on the back nine on the Sunday of the U.S. Open, when he had a clear shot at winning until he fell apart. Phil Mickelson (+8000) is an intriguing longshot, but remember that he missed the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge the week after winning the PGA Championship. He is still hitting the ball well, but consistency in these conditions will be an issue. His last British Open win came in 2013 at Muirfield. Jordan Spieth has been one of the top players in the world in 2021, but he hasn’t been able to put things together consistently for four days in any tournament yet.

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