Alabama at Tennessee Week 7 Betting Pick

It doesn’t get much better than this. We’ve talked about it all summer and now it’s finally here. The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide will face off against No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers in an earth-shaking college football showdown at Neyland Stadium this Saturday. Join us as we preview this game, complete with free college football betting picks.

Alabama at Tennessee Week 7 Betting Pick & TV Info

Putting in work. #BAMAvsTENN #RollTide pic.twitter.com/jtKM7a6mOL

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) October 12, 2016

Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN When: Saturday, October 15, 3:30 PM ET TV: CBS Radio: Alabama / Tennessee Live Stream: SEC Live NCAA Football Lines: Alabama (-13), OVER/UNDER 57

Why Bet on Alabama?

Alabama (6-0, 3-0 SEC) maintained its perfect start to the season with a 19-point win over the Arkansas Razorbacks last week, thanks to a strong performance from quarterback Jalen Hurts and a good-enough performance from the Tide’s defense, especially in the first half. Bama will be hoping to use the same formula to take down the Volunteers this weekend. On paper, the Tide have nearly everything in their favor, starting from their stellar 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 overall games against Tennessee to the fact that they’ll be facing a banged-up Tennessee squad that absorbed a lot of damages against A&M last week. Not to mention, the Crimson Tide bring with them plenty of momentum, having won a nation’s-best 18 straight games dating back to last season. But then again, with the experienced Volunteers team set to play at home in front of a predictably raucous crowd, things may not be that easy for the largely young and inexperienced Bama players.

Why Bet on Tennessee?

The Vols are coming off a disappointing 45-38 double-overtime loss at Texas A&M, and they are looking to regroup in time to give themselves a winning chance against the Crimson Tide. Finding the motivation to beat Alabama should not be a problem for Tennessee, considering the fierce rivalry that has existed between them and Bama for many decades. Plus, prior to the A&M loss, the Vols had the second-best winning streak in the nation dating back to last season (at 11), including a bunch of thrilling wins over top-tier opponents like Virginia Tech, Florida and Georgia, which should give the Tennessee players confidence in their abilities. That being said, the Vols have been bugged by some costly turnovers in their games (for example, they had seven turnovers last week); something that has to change if they are to beat the extremely disciplined Crimson Tide team. Needless to say, the Vols must also find ways of correcting their slow starts, as Alabama is highly unlikely to allow Tennessee back in the game in the same way Florida, Georgia and A&M did.

My Pick and Prediction

I really don’t like the spread or money line value for this game for two reasons. One; Tennessee played tough against Alabama last season (losing 19-14) and the Vols bring back the majority of the players from that game, meaning they could easily do the same or even better with their extra experience. Two; Alabama is so far unbeaten, but we all saw how they were wobbly against Ole Miss– a game they could have lost if the Rebels took their chances– so it’s hard to trust the visitors for a win in Knoxville, let alone doing so by as many as two touchdowns. So although I am leaning on Tennessee’s ATS value at +13, I feel I should focus better on the total lines which I believe will offer a surer betting value. Now, Alabama has played two big games this season, and they’ve allowed tons of points in those games with the total going OVER in both occasions (48-43 win vs. Ole Miss, 49-30 win vs. Arkansas). Given that Tennessee is just as talented as both teams in offense, I highly expect the experienced Vols to put up some decent points against the Tide’s young defense. In the same line of thought, all of Tennessee’s big games have been relatively high-scoring affairs–45-24 vs. Virginia Tech, 38-28 vs. Florida, 34-31 vs. Georgia and 38-45 vs. Texas A&M– so Alabama’s fluid offense (averaging 44.83 PPG scoring this season) should equally be able to put up some big points on the board. Then, of course, there are plenty of betting trends to support this narrative. To mention a few– the total has gone OVER in 4 of Alabama’s last 6 road games; the total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 6 home games at home; and the total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 6 overall games between Alabama and Tennessee. If all that doesn’t point to an OVER as a sure pick for this game, then I don’t what will. Writer’s NCAA Football Pick: OVER 57.5