Texas A&M at Alabama NCAA Football Week 4 Odds & Pick

The Aggies of Texas A&M University head to Tuscaloosa on Saturday for their seventh meeting with Alabama since the Aggies joined the Southeastern Conference. Alabama has won five straight contests between the two programs, dating back to the 2012 upset led by Johnny Manziel for the Aggies. Overall, the Aggies have won just two of the ten meetings between the programs. Now that Jimbo Fisher is at the helm for Texas A&M, can they go to Alabama and deliver an upset? Or will the Crimson Tide turn the Aggies into their latest victims? Take a look at our NCAA Football Week 4 betting preview for this SEC matchup.

Texas A&M at Alabama NCAA Football Week 4 Odds & Pick

“It’s a great opportunity, another opportunity to get better.” 🔊 @TheJhamonAusbon #GigEm pic.twitter.com/67Z3EqizmZ

— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) September 17, 2018

When: Saturday, September 22, 2018, 3:30pm ET Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL TV: CBS Radio: Texas A&M Sports Network / Alabama Crimson Tide Sports Network Live Stream: CBSSports.com NCAA Football Week 4 Odds: Alabama -26.5

Why should you bet on the Aggies?

The Aggies played Clemson very close at home, losing a tough 28-26 game to the Tigers. The Crimson Tide might have an even more potent offense than the Tigers do, but the defense that the Aggies played was stout enough to make Clemson sweat things out in the end. They only permit 79.7 rushing yards per game, ninth best in the nation, and their scheme forced Clemson to get creative. There are few offenses that can match Alabama’s prowess, particularly with both quarterbacks firing on all cylinders, but the Aggie defense should be up to the test — not necessarily to win, but to keep things within four touchdowns. On offense, Jimbo Fisher has the Aggies rolling. They average almost 600 yards of combined offense per game, ranking fifth in the nation through three games. Kellen Mond has played well at quarterback, completing 63 percent of his passes and accounting for nine touchdowns, six through the air and three with his feet. Trayveon Williams has been the featured tailback, averaging over six yards per carry and scoring four touchdowns of his own. Alabama has a fast, physical defense, but the Aggies have the tools to keep the ball for sustained drives and put points on the board.

Why should you put your money on the Crimson Tide?

I thought that Alabama would struggle to cover at Ole Miss last week, as the Rebels have a wide-open offense and the talent to move the ball at warp speed, but then the Crimson Tide went in and laid down the law in a 62-7 rout on the road. Tua Tagovailoa continues to show the brilliance that he demonstrated in the second half against Georgia in the national championship game last year, throwing for eight touchdowns in three games so far. He’s a big reason why the Tide are averaging 56.7 points per game. The defense might be the untold story for Alabama so far, though. They have permitted just 9.3 points per game so far, eighth in the nation. They have covered the spread in four of their last five home games, and the home team has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these two teams. If you like the Tide here, you see their offense simply overwhelming the Aggie defense and the Tide defense showing the speed and physicality to keep Texas A&M from getting first downs.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I don’t think that the Tide is ripe for the kind of upset that took place here six years ago. However, this point spread doesn’t seem realistic given the way the Aggies played against Clemson. I think the Aggie offense can score on Alabama, and I also think the Aggie defense will make some big plays. I predict a final score of Alabama 34, Texas A&M 20, with the Aggies covering but the Tide taking another step toward yet another spot in the College Football Playoff.