Top Picks for the First Round of the 2018 College Football Bowls

With the 2018 college football Power 5 conference championships in the books, the majority of the press buzz has focused on the national semifinals, set for December 29, as Clemson will face Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl and Alabama will face Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. However, there are 34 other bowl games set to take place, as any FBS team with six or more victories gained eligibility for a postseason game. The first bowl game is the Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl, featuring Alcorn State and North Carolina A&T and set for high noon Eastern time on December 15. After that, 33 other matchups between teams who are not competing for the official national championship (sorry, UCF) will unfold. How will the early round of college football bowl games go? We have some NCAAF betting thoughts for you to consider.

Top Picks for the First Round of College Football Bowl Games

🚨Bowl season power rankings! 🚨 @ScoobAxson sizes up all 78 teams https://t.co/tY2NiYBN6N

— SI College Football (@si_ncaafb) December 6, 2018

Saturday, December 15

North Carolina A&T (-7.5) vs Alcorn State

• Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl (12:00pm ET, CBS Sports)
• Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Alcorn State won the SWAC, rolling to a 9-3 (8-1 SWAC) record and won their games by an average of 12 points. Noah Johnson threw for 1,451 yards and 10 touchdowns (along with eight picks) and also led the team in rushing with 664 yards on just 89 carries, averaging over eight yards per attempt. Tailbacks De’Shawn Waller and P.J. Simmons combined for just under 1,200 yards. North Carolina A&T won the MEAC and finished with a record of 9-2. They won their games by an average of 15 points, led by quarterback Lamar Raynard, who threw for 1,247 yards on the season with 15 touchdowns against just five picks. Zachary Leslie caught seven of those touchdown passes, with 33 receptions on the year. Tailback Marquell Cartwright led the team with 634 yards on the ground. Despite that sizable spread, I see North Carolina A&T controlling the game with their defense and ball security. College Football Bowl Prediction: North Carolina A&T 27, Alcorn State 16

Fresno State (-3.5) vs Arizona State

• Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl (3:30pm ET, ABC)
• Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas

If we look at S&P+, Fresno State is in the top 10, while Arizona State doesn’t crack the top 50. The only teams that kept Fresno State within double digits this year were Minnesota (who beat them by a touchdown at home), San Diego State (Fresno won by nine) and Boise State twice. The Broncos beat Fresno State at home in the regular season but then lost the MWC Championship to Fresno, once again up in Boise, falling 19-16 in overtime. Arizona State beat in-state rival Arizona in the season finale after losing at Oregon. They did knock off Pac-12 South champion Utah at home. However, I see the Sun Devils running into some yawns with regard to playing a Group of Five team in a very minor bowl, while Fresno should come in full of motivation. College Football Bowl Prediction: Fresno State 30, Arizona State 23

Thursday, December 20

Marshall (+2) vs South Florida

• Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl (8:00pm ET, ESPN)
• Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

South Florida plays in their home stadium, which might sound like an advantage but often ends up draining the motivation out of the home side, because they don’t get a trip to go along with all those extra practices at the end of the regular season. Marshall ranks ahead of South Florida in terms of S&P+. Plus there’s the fact that South Florida started 7-0 — but it was a deceptive 7-0, as they only beat East Carolina by a touchdown at home — and then lost their last five, including a 38-10 shellacking at the hands of UCF in their finale. Marshall also lost their finale, at Virginia Tech, but before that had a three-game winning streak down the stretch. I see South Florida lying down once again. College Football Bowl Prediction: Marshall 33, South Florida 16