2019 NFL Conference Round SU Betting Picks

Thirty-two teams started the 2018 regular season with at least a mathematical chance of making it all the way to Super Bowl LIII, but now we are down to four. The New Orleans Saints mounted a furious comeback to knock off the upset-minded Philadelphia Eagles, 20-14, in their NFC divisional playoff, while the Los Angeles Rams took the Dallas Cowboys to the woodshed in a 30-22 win that was much less competitive than the final score sounds, to win their divisional round, and those two teams will meet in New Orleans for the NFC Championship. Kansas City came out rolling against Indianapolis and cruised to a 31-13 victory in their AFC divisional game, while New England ran out to a 35-7 lead over the Chargers and held on to win, 41-28, setting up the AFC Championship, which will take place at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time. If you’re considering doing your NFL betting straight up with money lines, take a look at our thoughts on each game below.

2019 NFL Conference Round SU Betting Picks

Who is YOUR @SuperBowl pick? #SBLIII pic.twitter.com/ROLz09u51R

— NFL (@NFL) January 16, 2019

How do money lines work? Take a look at the games below. You would have to bet $116 on the Rams to win $100 (and collect $216 total). For the Saints, you would have to bet $104 to win $100 (and collect $204 total). This suggests that the Rams are a slight favorite on the money line, while the Saints, with a three-point spread, are the favorites with against-the-spread betting. Those three points are basically there because the Saints are at home and that the books view the game as a pick’em line.

NFC Championship

L.A. Rams (-116) at New Orleans (-104) (3:05pm ET, FOX)

The Rams certainly looked more in control in their divisional round game than the Saints did in theirs, as Philadelphia rolled to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter before the Saints mounted their largest postseason comeback in franchise history to win. Meanwhile, the Rams ran all over Dallas, posting a 20-7 lead, before Dallas started inching its way back into the contest. The Rams were able to run the ball at will, pounding with both Todd Gurley II and C.J. Anderson. On defense, the Rams were able to predict that the Cowboys would run the ball on first down and were able to jam the line, thanks to Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald. New Orleans looked lost in the first quarter against the Eagles, but once they recovered, they were able to shut down the Philadelphia offense and put up 20 unanswered points for the win. On defense, they shut down Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles in the running game, and they were able to generate enough of a pass rush to force Nick Foles to hurry. Even so, it took a pass that clanked off the hands of Alshon Jeffrey into the waiting arms of Kareem Lattimore for the Saints to secure the victory. I see the Saints starting with more resolve this week, and while I don’t see this turning out to be a ten-point final margin, as in their regular-season matchup, I see the Saints eking out a win.

AFC Championship

New England (-110) at Kansas City (-110) (6:40pm ET, CBS)

Arrowhead Stadium’s first AFC Championship could also turn out to be one of the coldest ever, as current weather forecasts look for the temperature to be in the single digits on Sunday night. This is the Chiefs’ second AFC Championship ever, while the Patriots are in the semifinal for the eighth consecutive year. The Patriots went just 3-5 on the road this year, and while they did go 4-0 against their four opponents that made the postseason, but both teams will face cold climes for the second week in a row. Will age take its toll on such players as Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski? Bill Belichick definitely enters the game with an advantage as far as strategic coaching goes. Brady has all the experience in playoff situations as opposed to Patrick Mahomes II, appearing in just his second postseason game. Mahomes, though, appears to have none of the postseason jitters that one might expect; he simply goes out there and plays ball. With all the angst in the stands (as the Chiefs have only been this close to a title one other time in the last 49 seasons) and on the sidelines (as the Chiefs have a history of postseason blunders), Mahomes does not seem to let any of that faze him. I see him leading the Chiefs up and down the field and, given the conditions and the crowd, I like the Chiefs to have the bounces go their way and end up with the win.