What are the March Madness Surprises? Every now and then, one game changes the course of an entire sport. Within the world of college basketball, we’ve seen that happen several times. One of the most fundamentally important games happened on March 19, 1966, when Texas Western (now Texas-El Paso) won the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, knocking off Adolph Rupp’s Kentucky Wildcats, 72-65, despite entering as 6 ½-point sports betting underdogs.
Texas Western, under coach Don Haskins, won a national championship by changing a longstanding paradigm and starting five African-American players. No other school in the American South had African-American players on their basketball teams, and football in the South was only starting to integrate as well. This woke the South up to the possibility that African-Americans could get college scholarships in sports.
If you turn on college football or basketball games today, you can see how integration has brought not just opportunities to one group but new levels of excellence to these games. Because very few college basketball games were televised nationally in the 1960s, most of the United States had no idea what Texas Western was doing until the championship game broadcast.
Sports bettors who knew how good Haskins’ team was were able to leverage that awareness into big winnings. As we approach the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament, how can you turn this year’s trends into profits?
Which Trends Could Help Predict March Madness Surprises?
Team Performance Trends
Not all 20- or 25-win seasons are equal. A team starting 21-0 may falter later, while a 2-5 starter improving to 27-6 could excel in the conference tournament. Favor teams peaking in March Madness for better chances of success.
^Late Season Surge
The Florida Gators are poised for a significant tournament run, breaking free from the dominance of Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee in the SEC. With a recent road victory over Alabama (99-94), they hold a record of 26-4 (13-4 SEC), securing a 2-seed and a double bye in the SEC Tournament. Projected as a 1-seed for the NCAA tournament, they boast a commendable 4-2 record against ranked teams.
Walter Clayton Jr.
The Gators are a formidable challenge, especially with their solid point guard play. Setter Clayton Jr. has shown offensive versatility with 21 points and eight assists against Alabama, and has a Florida record by hitting a three-pointer in 52 consecutive games. Richard and Martin excel in long-range shooting, while Klavzar and Aberdeen add depth to the team.
Gators’ Frontcourt
Features center Rueben Chinyelu (6-10, 7-6 wingspan) and forwards Alex Condon (6-11) and Thomas Haugh (6-9), who is a contender for SEC Sixth Man of the Year. With Micah Handlogten (7-1) back, they have depth in the post, enhancing their rebounding advantage. They outperformed Alabama in rebounds (50-35) and second-chance points (19-10), crucial for tournament success.
The Gators excel in teamwork, with no selfishness in their play. In the win over Alabama, Condon (27) and Clayton (22) led with double figures. They achieved 14 assists and rank third nationally in fast break points.
^Conference Tournament Performance
Each conference sends its tournament winner to the Big Dance
Some conferences, particularly the stronger basketball leagues, also receive at-large picks. However, there are times when a team will come out of nowhere to go on a streak and take that automatic-qualifier spot by winning the conference tournament even though they weren’t projected to get into the tournament at all.
N.C. State had a challenging season, finishing 26-15 (9-11 ACC)
They needed to win five games in the ACC tournament to qualify, defeating notable teams like Louisville and Duke. Despite a four-game losing streak at the end of the regular season, their success continued in the NCAA tournament as they advanced from the 11-seed, beating teams like Texas Tech and Marquette to reach the Final Four. Their remarkable run ended with a close loss to Purdue, 60-53.
How does this work?
Chemistry and execution go hand in hand in this sport, and sometimes teams just find lightning in a bottle and find a way to ride it a long way. If a team can steal an automatic-qualifier slot in the tournament in one of the power conferences, or in one of the strong basketball conferences like the Atlantic 10 or the Big East, take a hard look at them to keep pushing several rounds into the Big Dance.
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March Madness Surprises: Statistical and Analytical Trends
Advanced Metrics
There is a ton of research out there about college basketball, so take advantage of all of the research that you can. Look at such basic stats as points per game and defensive efficiency (points permitted per 100 possessions), but also look at KenPom (Ken Pomeroy’s rating system, which uses a variety of advanced statistical models to predict outcomes of games).
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index is another composite ranking system that evaluates a team’s strength. Given the fact that March Madness will match up teams that haven’t played in the regular season, or perhaps even in years, having those numbers will help you decide which way to make your bets.
^Three-Point Shooting Variance
In March Madness, the “lottery effect” of the three-point line is noticeable. Teams with a consistent three-point shooting percentage from the beginning to the end of the season show stability. However, if there is no correlation in their numbers, it could indicate random results, which poses a risk to them and their opponents.
The danger in upsets stems from underdogs often outshooting favorites in three-pointers during crucial games. When favored teams lose, their shooters frequently struggle from long range. This dynamic increases the potential for surprises, as defenses exert less control over outside shooting compared to shots near the basket. Despite aggressive perimeter defense, blocking long-distance shots is far less common than defending close-range attempts like layups or dunks.
^Turnover Margin and Rebounding
A team’s turnover margin is the difference between the number of turnovers a team gains through steals and mistakes by the opposition and the number of turnovers they lose. Some turnovers come off bad passes, while others come through violations such as traveling, double dribble, or a shot clock violation – problems that can come from the defense but are also more the fault of the offensive team. Offensive fouls also count as turnovers.
Teams with positive turnover margins are more likely to win and can upset favorites with neutral or negative turnover ratios. They excel in ball security, effectively running their offense for timely shots, and they remain composed throughout the game, contributing to their success.
A team’s rebounding margin is similar
The difference between the rebounds a team gets and the rebounds its opponents get is crucial. Also considered is the “second chance points” statistic, which is the points scored after an offensive rebound. More offensive rebounds generate fatigue and discouragement in the opposing defense.
^Free Throw Shooting
The last 40 national champions have a free throw average roughly two percentage points higher than all tournament teams combined, a crucial difference in close games. Tournament outcomes often hinge on single possessions, making free throws significant.
UConn holds the largest single-season free-throw percentage difference at +7.2% in 2014. Free throws reflect a team’s ability to drive to the basket rather than relying on outside shots, providing easy points just 15 feet away. Remember this stat.
^Intangible and Situational Trends
Coaching Experience
The average Final Four coach needs 10.5 years on the job to reach a men’s Final Four. Eighteen coaches required more than two decades; 49 achieved it in five years or less.
The coach who took the longest to get to a Final Four was legendary Kansas coach Phog Allen, who made it that far in 1940 – his 34th year as a college head coach.
Player Experience and Leadership
Between 2010 and 2018, the average roster experience for 34 Final Four teams was 2.4 years, excluding the vacated Louisville teams. No team exceeded an average of 3.0 years, with North Carolina’s 2016 roster at 2.94 years.
The five players with the most minutes averaged 2.6 years of experience. While having experience can influence outcomes, it isn’t a significant determinant for winning championships.
Injury and Roster Changes
Injuries significantly impact the Houston Cougars’ performance, as demonstrated in recent tournaments. Last year, they lost their Sweet 16 game to Duke after point guard Jamal Shead suffered an ankle injury, resulting in a narrow three-point defeat.
The previous season, the Cougars advanced to the Elite Eight despite missing guards Tramon Mark and Marcus Sasser, aided by Shead’s strong contributions. Monitoring injuries is crucial for teams expected to contend as the tournament progresses.
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March Madness Surprises 2025
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