2018 Final Four Betting: Loyola-Chicago Analysis, Odds and Predictions

Did you have Loyola-Chicago in the Final Four of your bracket? You’re in select company indeed, because only 0.48% of the brackets (or 48 for every 10,000) in the ESPN Tournament Challenge agreed with you. Nevertheless, here they are, after three wins via the buzzer-beater in the first three rounds, and then an old-fashioned beatdown of Kansas State in the Elite Eight. The Sporting News gives the Ramblers a 44.52% chance of beating Michigan and reaching the national finals, but only a 10.92% chance of beating either Villanova or Kansas to win the whole thing. Take a look at our Final Four betting insights on Sister Jean’s Cinderella story.

2018 Final Four Betting: Loyola-Chicago Analysis, Odds and Predictions

We got our first look at the dance floor this morning. #OnwardLU #MarchMadness #FinalFour pic.twitter.com/Lv3ZzKEKFa

— Loyola Basketball (@RamblersMBB) March 29, 2018

What flaws do the Ramblers have?

It’s true that Loyola-Chicago is far from the first mid-major to make the Final Four as an 11-seed. George Mason did it in 2006, and Virginia Commonwealth did it five years later. However, both of those teams saw their surprising runs end in the national semifinals. The giant hurdle that mid-majors have to jump over at this point in the tournament is the talent differential between their own rosters and those of the power-conference schools that make up the rest of the bracket. Villanova has four players who will likely be in the NBA next season. Kansas has at least two, and Michigan likely has two more. Loyola-Chicago doesn’t have any. So even with a terrific team-based scheme, like the Ramblers have, there’s only so much you can do against NBA-grade talent.

Why should you bet on Loyola?

Head coach Porter Moser put his stamp on this team by giving them this motto coming into the season: “Why not us?” That sense of confidence and purpose has driven the Ramblers from Day One — which is a big factor in their 32 wins on the season. He describes his players as “greedy” and “hungry” — not in terms of selfishness, but in terms of what they want for the team. He brought in some junior college players and transfers from other programs to assemble a roster that had the chemistry he wanted. He has referred to a quality that each of his players has as “the winning gene.” Two of the Ramblers are Clayton Custer (MVC Player of the Year) and Ben Richardson (South Region Most Outstanding Player). They also played together in high school, winning two state championships along the way, and totaling more than 90 wins in four seasons. All told, seven of the players on the roster won state championships in high school, a feature that was a part of Moser’s strategy in building his roster. This chemistry has led to a team that runs its offense with speed and precision. They move the ball quickly, and they don’t turn the ball over. They all pass with skill and accuracy, and any of the players who are in the regular rotation can score. Consider Richardson’s performance in the Elite Eight matchup against Kansas State, when he put up a career-best 23 points, despite the fact that he is usually the leader on the defensive end of the floor, leaving the offense to others. In the 2016-17 season, more than a few of Loyola’s losses came late, as they gave up leads in the waning minutes of the second half. That motivated Moser’s grueling conditioning program in the summer, and it’s why the players hold up four fingers when there are four minutes left in regulation. That symbolizes their commitment to win in the clutch. That commitment has paid off with three buzzer-beaters, and strong play down the stretch against Kansas State to keep the margin in double figures.

Final Four Betting Prediction

How will Loyola’s system work against the likes of Michigan and (potentially) Villanova or Kansas? I think that Loyola will beat Michigan — the inconsistency of the Wolverines’ outside shooting will finally cost them, as Loyola’s strident defense will pay dividends. However, I don’t think Loyola makes it past Villanova in the championship — with four NBA-caliber players in their rotation, Villanova is simply beyond the Ramblers’ reach.