2018 Final Four Betting: Michigan Analysis, Odds and Predictions

As the regular season was winding down in college basketball, if you asked experts which Big Ten team was most likely to be around for the Final Four, you would have heard Michigan State or Purdue — but not Michigan. However, the Spartans fell by the wayside, as did the Boilermakers, but the Wolverines are still here. In fact, they haven’t lost a game since February 6. Now they prepare to face Loyola-Chicago in the national semifinal on Saturday night. The Sporting News gives them a 55.48% chance to knock off the Ramblers, and a 25.89% chance to win the national championship. Take a look at our Final Four betting insights on the Wolverines and their chance to hoist the trophy in San Antonio on Monday night.

2018 Final Four Betting: Michigan Analysis, Odds and Predictions

The one word to describe San Antonio: Festive! We’ve got your full report from today’s activities. 👇#GoBlue | #FinalFour pic.twitter.com/puTIO0VWf0

— Michigan Men’s Basketball (@umichbball) March 30, 2018

What flaws do the Wolverines have?

The talent level on this team is not as high as that of Villanova, or even Kansas. They have a center in Moritz Wagner who might be able to find a place in the NBA, as might guard Muhammad-Ali Abdur Rahkman. This is a team that lives and dies by the three-pointer. They were able to live by it big-time against Texas A&M, but when it goes cold, they tend to flounder on offense. So if they can’t find their range on the temporary nets put up in the Alamodome, things could go poorly for them. Also, they’re facing a Loyola-Chicago team that works hard on the perimeter to contest those outside shots.

Why should you bet on Michigan?

If you look at Michigan’s warmups, you see this motto: “Do More, Say Less.” There are a lot of college basketball teams who have players who do a lot of talking, but not at Michigan. This is a team that does what it does quite well but is more than happy to fly under the radar. If Loyola-Chicago has any inkling to turn up the tempo against Michigan, the Ramblers will pay a heavy price, because even though they might well be in elite shape, they don’t have the speed and quickness to keep up with Michigan. If you look inside with the Wolverines, you see a spectrum of different styles. Wagner is a stretch five who can also drift outside and knock down three-balls. Duncan Robinson is a stretch four who likes to spot up or penetrate, so he pulls his defender out of the paint. Joe Teske is a true center who doesn’t score much but who provides rebounding and tough defense inside. Michigan’s guards can sneak by you as well if you’re not paying attention. Freshman Zavier Simpson has smooth handles and can use his lightning-quick first step to get by you on his way to the rim. However, it’s Charles Mathews who is playing the best ball of anyone on the Wolverines’ roster at this point. He won Most Outstanding Player in the West Region, averaging 16.5 points per game in his four contests. He has only turned the ball once in seven of his last games. Abdur-Rahkman is a senior who puts up 13 points per game, and when he takes the floor on Saturday, it will be for his 143rd game, the third most in Michigan history. Finally, for all the kudos that Loyola-Chicago gets for their defense, Michigan’s defensive efficiency ranks #4 in the NCAA. They led the Big Ten in points permitted for just the fourth time in the last 102 seasons of basketball. So their numbers are actually better than the ones the Ramblers have put up over the season — and Michigan doesn’t play in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Final Four Betting Prediction

Michigan has put together a terrific run this season, using talent on the inside and the outside to shock teams and pull off some big victories. With that said, I don’t see Loyola-Chicago’s run as being over yet. They will contest Michigan’s shots and make a few daggers of their own. I see Michigan’s run ending in the national semifinal — but with plenty of pieces in place to come back in 2019.