7 Things to Know Before Betting the 2018 Final Four

One of the most popular sports betting events in the world is about to wrap up this weekend, as Kansas, Villanova, Michigan and Loyola-Chicago travel to San Antonio to tangle in the Final Four. The two semifinal games take place on Saturday night, with the national championship set for Monday. We’ve put together some information for you to consider as you put together your Final Four betting picks for these last three games that will determine college basketball’s champions.

7 Things to Know Before Betting the 2018 Final Four

They never said the road to the #FinalFour was easy… 👉 https://t.co/ZGto42jV2k pic.twitter.com/t5bzd4WwZv

— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) March 29, 2018

Kansas does the worst job covering the spread of these four teams

The Jayhawks have only covered the spread 20 times in their 37 games this season. Which team is the best? It’s the Cinderellas from Loyola-Chicago, as Sister Jean’s crew have covered 24 times in 33 games. Then comes Villanova (25 times in 38 games) and Michigan (24 times in 38 games). Kansas opened as five-point underdogs against Villanova, and Michigan is favored to beat Loyola-Chicago by 5 ½ points.

Kansas has the least depth of any of the remaining teams

The Jayhawk starters average more than 31 minutes per game, led by 37.8 minutes from Devonte’ Graham. Svi Mykhailiuk (34.7), Lagerald Vick (33.1) and Malik Newman (31.4) are also out there for long stretches of time. None of the other Final Four teams have more than two players averaging more than 31 minutes. So while conditioning might not be an issue, foul trouble could become one if Kansas has to turn to their bench earlier than they are used to doing.

Loyola-Chicago is the nation’s “luckiest” team remaining

KenPom has a “Luck” metric that looks at the difference between a team’s expected number of wins (which comes from such statistics as scoring differential) and the number of games they actually win. Teams with a higher “Luck” metric tend to win a lot of close games, but as the season presses on, they start to lose more of those close games. Loyola-Chicago is #20 in the nation as far as luck, ten slots ahead of Kansas, 45 ahead of Michigan and 203 slots ahead of Villanova. Of course, the Ramblers did go through an intense conditioning program in the summer to stay fresh late in games, and they do hoist four fingers at the four-minute mark of regulation to remind themselves to play hard down the stretch. So is it luck?

Michigan has the worst shooting percentage of the Final Four teams

The Wolverines shoot 47.1% from the floor, just 53rd in the nation. Kansas is ninth (49.8%), Villanova is fifth (50.4%) and Loyola-Chicago is third (50.7%). Michigan shot lights out in their rout of Texas A&M, and they have made clutch shots in their run in the Big 12 Tournament and the NCAA tournament, but shooting percentages catch up with you eventually.

Michigan’s defense is the best left standing

In the first four games of March Madness, Michigan has permitted just 59.0 points per game. As far as defensive efficiency goes, they are the only team in the nation’s top ten remaining in the Big Dance. Can they lock down a quick Loyola-Chicago team that distributes the ball as well as any — and can nail clutch shots from inside and outside the arc?

No one scores more points than Villanova

That’s in the nation, not just the Final Four. They averaged 87.1 points per game on the season, and even though Texas Tech was able to slow them down (they just scored 71 points in that win), they still won by 12. The next best team remaining in the Final Four is Kansas (81.5 points per game, good for fifth in the nation).

Villanova does not have a senior who plays at least 30 minutes per game

This stat sets the Wildcats apart — and it makes them scary for next season as well. The last team to win the national championship without a senior playing for at least 24 minutes per game was Connecticut, back in 2011. The other three teams have at least one senior playing that much — but Villanova has no seniors who have even averaged more than a minute and a half per game. Don’t think that’s a youth movement, though, because four of their top six producers on offense are juniors, and they remember what it took to win two years ago.