Trojans Likely to Get NCAAF Betting Win, But Colorado Will Keep it Close

Friday Night’s college football odds will feature an interesting game between the Colorado State Buffaloes (4-6) and the USC Trojans (6-3) in a Pac-12 Conference matchup. The Buffaloes will be playing in front of their home supporters, but are placed as massive underdogs in the online betting NCAAF betting lines against the visiting Trojans. On paper, the college football betting lines make sense since Colorado a perennial bottom-table team, while the Trojans rank up there among Pac-12’s football powerhouses. However, the Trojans have been far from perfect this season and have struggled against every major underdog they have faced in the Pac-12 play this season. This sets up an intriguing scenario for bettors interested in wagering on this game. Below is a brief betting guide that should help in clarifying where the real betting value lies in this somewhat tricky matchup. Venue: Folsom Field, Boulder, CO Date: Friday, November 13, 2015 Time: 9:00 PM ET TV: ESPN2 NCAAF Odds: Colorado (+16.5) USC (-16.5) OVER/UNDER 61.5

After a slow start, the Trojans turned the story around and put on a show for #USCHomecoming. A new #UNFILTERED: https://t.co/510ciT7Pnq

— USC Trojans (@USC_Athletics) November 9, 2015

USC @ Colorado Betting Preview and Analysis

The Buffaloes are coming into this game ridding on a two-game losing skid against UCLA and Stanford respectively. Although QB Sefo Liufau has not been as impressive as was expected by many fans this season, his ability to limit mistakes have allowed the Buffaloes to win more games than they did last season (four compared to two in 2014) and remain competitive in others. Against UCLA two weeks ago, the Buffaloes had a very strong performance on the road in Los Angles, falling a little short of upsetting the then 24th-ranked Bruins in a spirited 35-31 loss. Last Saturday, Stanford proved to be too much with a 42-10 home win, but Liufau wasn’t that bad, as he completed 10 of 18 for 125 yards with just one interception. In all the Buffaloes victories this season, Liufau has thrown five TDs to Zero interceptions while in all the losses, Liufau has thrown just four TDs to six interceptions. None of these stats are awe-inspiring, but they show that the QB has been a serviceable performer, something that is likely to see him figure out decently in Friday’s scores. Aiding the Buffaloes’ charges this Friday is the fact that WR Nelson Spruce, Pac-12’s all-time leader in receptions, has been very instrumental in the Buffaloes offense this year. On the season, he has secured 67 receptions for 728 yards with two scores. Against Stanford, Spruce recorded five receptions for 75 yards. If Liufau and Spruce can continue to link up well, the pair could trouble the Trojans’ defense that is giving up 21.9 points per game and 395.5 YPG this season. As a point of concern, though, Colorado’s defense has been too leaky, allowing 28.3 PPG with 428.2 YPG, despite racking up 22 sacks, 6 fumble recoveries and 11 interceptions in the process. With such numbers, there is no doubt that they will have an uphill task against the Trojans offense that is averaging 37 points per game with 480.1 YPG this Friday. Conversely, USC has won its last three games in a row, including the 38-30 win over Arizona last Saturday, and is looking very strong after an iffy show in the first half of the season that saw their coach get fired. The Trojans passing game has particularly been top-notch, helping the team to hang in games where their defense has not shown up. The cannon-armed QB Cody Kessler is the chief architect of this offense, leading the Trojans with 2511 passing yards and 20 TDs against just five INTs on the year. Against Arizona, Kessler threw 22 of 36 passes for 243 yards with two TDs, while Ronald Jones II also had a solid game, rushing for 177 yards on 19 carries and breaking a freshman school record in the process. Juju Smith-Schuster, Kessler’s No. 1 target this season, continued his stellar season with eight receptions for 183 yards and one TD. Given their current motivation and their surging performances, Kessler and Co. could easily tear apart the Buffaloes’ suspect defense that has been leaking massive yards and points both aerially and on the ground. The Trojans’ defense has had its ups and downs, recording 23 sacks, seven fumble recoveries with 11 interceptions. Decent as such numbers look, this defense will need to stop the Buffaloes from extending drives like it did against Stanford earlier this year and got punished for it. This will be very important, as the Liufau-led Colorado offense has been secretly stacking up good numbers, averaging 27.9 PPG with 424.8 YPG on the season.

Key Betting Trends

The Buffaloes are 1-5 SU in their last six games The Trojans are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games The Buffaloes are 2-7 SU in their last nine games at home The Trojans are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games on the road The buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing Southern Cal The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing Colorado The Buffaloes are 0-5 SU in their last five games when playing Southern Cal The Trojans are 5-0 SU in their last five games when playing Colorado The total has gone OVER in six of Colorado’s last nine games at home The total has gone UNDER in six of Southern Cal’s last seven games on the road

USC at Colorado Game Prediction

USC seems to be in full momentum coming into this game compared to the Buffaloes whose momentum is already dented with back-to-back losses. Plus, with Jones’ emergence, USC is likely to keep the ball on the ground more than usual, thus shortening the game. All in all, a moving clock will not help Colorado to win the game, but it will help Liufau, Spruce and company keep it close. So in short, take USC to claim the road win, but ride on Colorado to keep the game close for a cover of the spread, as the total most likely goes OVER.