NASCAR 2019 First Data 500 Odds & Betting Preview

The third round of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs opens this week at Martinsville Speedway, the shortest track in the NASCAR circuit. This often leads to some bumping and pushing among the cars, particularly in the waning moments of the race when everyone is jockeying for a winning position. Joey Logano comes in as the defending champion, as he shoved Martin Truex Jr out of his way to grab the win, which he needed to make it to the championship. This year, both Logano and Truex will likely make the championship round as they are in the top four of the NASCAR standings, but Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are all on the outside right now, so expect a major push down the stretch. We have your NASCAR odds for this race as well as suggestions for your wager cards.

NASCAR 2019 First Data 500 Odds & Betting Preview

The first chance to punch a ticket to Homestead is here. It’s about to get wild at @MartinsvilleSwy! pic.twitter.com/CHSSRg25er

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 25, 2019

• When: Sunday, October 28, 2019 at 2:30 PM ET
• Where: Martinsville Speedway, Martinsville, VA
• TV: NBC Sports
• Live Stream: NBCSports.com

Driver Odds to Win the 2019 First Data 500

• Kyle Busch                                                                                                      5/2
• Denny Hamlin                                                                                                 9/2
• Martin Truex Jr                                                                                               6/1
• Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott                                                7/1
• Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney                                                                           14/1
• Clint Bowyer                                                                                                   25/1
• Kyle Larson, Erik Jones, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch                                 40/1
• Daniel Suarez, Aric Almirola                                                                           60/1
• Aelx Bowman, William Byron, Matt DiBenedetto                                           80/1
• Austin Dillon, Ryan Newman, Ryan Preece, Ricky Stenhouse Jr,
• Paul Menard                                                                                                   300/1
• Chris Buescher                                                                                               500/1
• Ty Dillon, Daniel Hemric, Darrell Wallace Jr, Michae McDowell,
• David Ragan                                                                                                   2000/1
• Matt Tifft, Corey LaJoie, Landon Cassill, Ross Chastain                               5000/1
• FIELD (all others)                                                                                            1000/1

Who Should You Bet On?

Kyle Busch has an average finish of 3.8 in his last nine starts at Martinsville, tops in the entire series. He has eight consecutive top-five finishes here, including two wins in 2016 and 2017. At the spring race at Martinsville Speedway, he came in third. Martin Truex Jr won here in 2017, turning Martinsville Speedway into one of his top courses after having difficulties here early in his NASCAR career. Over the last four races here, he has three top-five finishes, and (as we mentioned above) he was winning heading into the last turn here a year ago. At the spring race here, he came in eighth. Brad Keselowski won the spring race at Martinsville Speedway, leading 446 laps to dominate the action. Last week saw Keselowski eliminated from contention in the playoffs, so now he is just aiming for the victory. He has won two of the last seven races at Martinsville Speedway and has not finished outside the top ten in any race here over the last four seasons. Denny Hamlin used to be THE driver at Martinsville, as he won three consecutive races here over the 2009 and 2010 seasons. His track record has dwindled since then, but he may lead all active drivers in total laps driven at Martinsville. He won at Kansas last week to collect his fifth checkered flag of the year. Joey Logano is the defending champion here and has cracked the top ten in four of his last six races at Martinsville Speedway. This means that his 19th-place finish here in the spring race is the outlier and that you should consider him as a solid option. Kevin Harvick has four consecutive top-ten finishes at Martinsville Speedway — including consecutive fifth-place finishes in 2017-18. Clint Bowyer has four top-ten finishes here in his last five races, and he won the whole thing here in 2018, leading 215 laps en route to the checkered flag.

Which drivers should you avoid?

Kyle Larson has only posted an average finish of 21.2 over the last ten races at Martinsville Speedway. Over his last six races here, he has not finished better than 14th. Ricky Stenhouse Jr only has two top-ten finishes in his last ten starts at Martinsville Speedway. Erik Jones has raced here five times but has never finished better than twelfth. David Ragan has raced at Martinsville twice a year going back to 2015 but has never finished higher than 18th.