NFL Game Odds: Bills vs Texans | Both teams bring identical 3–1 records into their Week 5 clash down in the Lone Star State. Another thing that both teams have in common is the nature of their losses – both of them were embarrassing routs on the road.
The Texans got run out of U.S. Bank Stadium, 34-7, by the Minnesota Vikings, in Week 3.
Last week, the Buffalo Bills went to Baltimore and got demolished, 35-10, by the Ravens. Both games showed shortcomings on offense and defense for two teams that view themselves as contenders in the AFC this season.
Both teams shared Stefon Diggs, a star wide receiver, in the past. Despite his major impact on the Bills’ success, they traded him to Houston in the off season. They questioned if they could sustain offensive success without him.
Now he’s putting up big numbers for the Texans, and it’s hard to imagine that he won’t have the motivation to make a huge statement against his former team.
If this game is on your sports betting radar for the weekend, don’t miss our predictions.
NFL Game Odds: Bills vs Texans in Week 5 | NFL 2024/25 Season
When: Sunday, October 6, 2024, 1:00 pm ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: CBS
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: ESPN+
Opening NFL Game Odds Subject to Change: Buffalo -1 / O/U 47.5
Buffalo Bills -118
How on earth are the Buffalo Bills road favorites against another 3-1 team after that unsightly show they put on in Baltimore last week? Well, it’s helpful to look at how rare that loss was. Before that game, the Bills had gone 43 regular-season games without losing by more than 10 points. This has been a competitive team, week in and week out, with Josh Allen at quarterback.
There was a point, early in the second half, when the Bills looked ready to make the game competitive again, but they fumbled on a trick play, gave up a Baltimore touchdown, and then watched Tyler Bass miss a field goal. The defense had no answer for Baltimore’s rushing game, but the Texans don’t have anything approaching the Ravens’ running attack.
JOSH. ALLEN. https://t.co/uR9bkvKEsk | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/qKbvLjqPCU
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 3, 2024
Josh Allen
Allen went 16 of 29 for 180 yards on the night. Of those 180 yards, 52 came on a highlight-reel pass to Khalil Shakir. He still hasn’t thrown an interception, which is development on his part. If we go one week earlier in the Bills’ schedule, we see their Week 3 trip to Jacksonville, a game that the Bills won, 47-10. Allen threw four touchdown passes in the first half as the Bills scored touchdowns on five possessions in a row.
The Bills’ defense only permitted 70 yards, five first downs and a field goal in the first half for Jacksonville. Houston’s offense is much better than Jacksonville’s, at least on paper, but the inconsistencies that Houston has on offense right now should be raising a lot of questions for sports bettors.
^Houston Texans -104
Last week, it looked like the Texans would follow up their humiliation in Minnesota with a sad home loss to a winless Jacksonville Jaguars team. They had put up 17 points in the first half, but then the offense went dark at the intermission, punting on five possessions in a row. Then C.J. Stroud led one last drive down the field, finding third-string tailback Dare Ogunbowale on a one-yard scoring pass with 18 seconds left.
Ogunbowale scored his first touchdown since 2022 thanks to injuries to Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce. That last drive totaled 69 yards on nine plays on a day when the mistakes were aplenty for the Texans.
They fumbled a punt in the early going and committed a dozen penalties – giving them a total of 35 over their last three games. Nico Collins had 12 catches (a career high) for 151 yards and a score, making it three 100-yard receiving games so far in 2024. He now has 489 receiving yards through four games, the highest mark by any Houston receiver.
In the AFC
While the Texans still might have the highest ceiling in the AFC, they’re still making things way too hard for themselves. Stroud has the ability to pull off heroics like he did on Sunday, but there was no reason for that to happen against a team like Jacksonville. Stefon Diggs is producing, and Nico Collins is off the charts at this point.
However, avoidable penalties are ending too many drives, which will cause problems against other elite teams. Can the Texans win this division? That still seems pretty easy, especially now that Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has gone down to injury. However, getting past that could be a real problem.
^Bills vs Texans Final Score and Prediction
The Buffalo Bills should get starting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard back this week. He left the Week 2 game with a pectoral injury, but he has practiced all week and should play. However, Pro Bowl edge rusher Von Miller starts a four-game ban that the league handed down Tuesday for violations of NFL’s personal conduct policy.
Safety Taylor Rapp (concussion protocol), nickel back Taron Johnson (forearm) and linebacker Matt Milano remain on the shelf, and defensive tackle Austin Johnson (oblique) did not practice Wednesday. Having all of these players out didn’t help the Bills deal with the Baltimore rushing attack – the team permitted an eye-popping 271 rushing yards. Derrick Henry gained 199 of them, including 78 on the game’s very first play. On offense, wide receiver Khalil Shakir sprained his ankle and left the game in a walking boot. He did not practice Wednesday and is doubtful.
Injuries
Houston did not have wide receiver Tank Dell (chest) or tailbacks Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce (hamstring) against Jacksonville. Offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil (ankle) left in the third quarter against Jacksonville and did not practice Wednesday. Mixon also did not practice Wednesday but remains questionable, and Dell is listed as day-to-day and was limited in practice Wednesday. Pierce did not practice Wednesday. Safety Jimmie Ward (groin) did not play against Jacksonville and was limited in practice Wednesday.
Keep an Eye
If you like Houston in this game, you see them fixing the issues that have caused inconsistency, such as the avoidable penalties, and you see them doing a better job of establishing the running game. The Bills should have made adjustments to keep running games from giving them so many problems, though, and the Texans don’t have Derrick Henry.
If you like Buffalo, you see them getting back to competitive football and using their aggressive front seven to force Stroud into poor decisions – and to get the offensive line to jump and hold, drawing yellow flags in the process. I predict a final score of Buffalo 27, Houston 23.
^HUGE game in Houston on Sunday with #BillsMafia coming to town licking their wounds but more importantly — @STEFONDIGGS REVENGE GAME!!#NFL #BUFvsHOU @TomPelissero pic.twitter.com/CpEOOdJQCq
— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) October 3, 2024
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