Saturday will feature both of the national semifinal matchups of the NCAA Division I men’s college basketball tournament. Kansas takes on Villanova in one semifinal, with the Jayhawks favorited by four points. Duke takes on North Carolina in the other semifinal, with the Blue Devils set at 4 ½-point favorites. If you are looking for a March Madness betting underdog to bring some value to your wagering for the weekend, we recommend one of these games – but not the other. Read on to find out which underdog we would back.
NCAA News: Final Four Betting Predictions
Kansas (-4) vs Villanova
The Jayhawks have rolled to the Big 12 regular season and tournament titles – and to a Final Four – with a seven-man rotation anchored by Ochai Agbaji, an All-American guard who scores 18.9 points per game to lead the team. Dajuan Harris (averaging 5.1 points per game) and Remy Martin (8.1) share the point guard duties, and Christian Braun (14.6) can add points from the wing, either through attacking the rim or burying three-pointers. Braun is also the “glue” player for the team – the one who holds the chemistry together. When the second half began against Miami, it was Braun who got things going with a couple of plays on the fast break that turned the tide of momentum. Up front, the paint is patrolled by Jalen Wilson (11.0) and David McCormack (10.0) with Mitch Lightfoot coming in off the bench (4.7). With this rotation, the Jayhawks have had enough depth to smother teams with imposing defense.
Agbaji is an unselfish player who moves extremely well without the ball, and it is easy for him to get lost in the other team’s defense, only to pop out, catch a pass, and score an easy basket. He also distributes the ball well, as he has only shot more than 15 attempts in one game over these nine consecutive wins Kansas has stacked up. Agbaji is shooting 51 percent overall through the last four games and has averaged 17.8 points per contest over that stretch. On defense, Kansas has limited the opposition to 34.1% shooting from the floor for the season.
Villanova would be my pick here – they have more success in the Big Dance over the last five or six years, and Jay Wright is the savvier of the two coaches right now. However, Villanova won’t have Justin Moore, who tore an Achilles tendon late in the Wildcats’ victory over Houston. The Wildcats only had a six-man rotation as it was, so seniors Collin Gillespie (15.6 points per game) and Jermaine Samuels (11.1) will have to do more. Bryan Antoine and Chris Arcidiacono, bit players off the bench, will now combine to become the “sixth” player in the rotation. Without Moore, Villanova won’t have the stamina to keep up.
Prediction: Kansas to win and cover
Duke (-4) vs North Carolina
Duke comes in as an unsurprising favorite, for a number of reasons. They have had a better season overall, their offense has a higher ceiling, and they have all the intangibles, including a desire for revenge for their home loss to North Carolina to end the regular season as well as the chance to give Coach K a national title in his very last season. He has brought the Blue Devils to 12 Final Four semifinals, and Duke has won nine of those matchups. They have not lost a national semifinal in 18 years.
North Carolina has an intriguing resume here, though. The Tar Heels have lost just one straight up in their last ten games, and they have covered eight times in that stretch. They beat UCLA and Baylor in the NCAA tournament as an underdog, and they beat Duke on the road – also in upset fashion. North Carolina’s game revolves around Armando Bacot, a 6’10” forward who puts up 16.4 points and 12.5 boards per game, and he can control the paint against Duke. Caleb Love (15.7 points per game) and Brady Manek (15.1) can both pour in the points, which should counteract Duke’s high-octane attack. Can the Tar Heels win? I don’t know. Can they cover? I don’t see Duke pulling away late. Get on this line before it shrinks.
Final Prediction: Duke to win / North Carolina to cover
College Basketball Betting Odds
Love betting NCAA basketball? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date college basketball lines
