Must-Bet Games and Expert Analysis: NFL Week 5 Betting Guide

Must-Bet Games and Expert Analysis: NFL Week 5 Betting Guide

A month has gone by, and now we are continuing with the NFL Week 5! Is Mason Rudolph’s quarterback career back from the grave? He came off the bench for the Tennessee Titans and led them to a season-high 31 points in their Monday night win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 4.

Once Will Levis threw his sixth pick of the year (a league high, along with his nine total turnovers) and injured his shoulder diving for a first down, in came Rudolph.

The Titans used a run-first approach but hid it behind various formations and motions, leading to 142 yards on the ground.

And how about Jared Goff? He had thrown four interceptions in his first three games, raising some question marks whether Father Time has started to catch up for him.

Then, also on MNF, he went a perfect 18 of 18 for 292 yards. He threw for two touchdowns and scored another on a catch from wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown on Detroit’s remake of the Philly Special.

The Lions went 19 for 19 passing as a team, the first time since at least 1933 that a team had a 100% pass completion rate in a game while having more than one player throw a pass.

Don’t overlook these sports betting picks for Week 5 if you include the NFL in your wagering.

 

NFL Week 5: Must-Have Bets for Sports Bettors | Odds & Expert Analysis

 

N.Y. Jets (+2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings (O/U 40.5)

When: Sunday, October 6, 9:30 am ET, NFL Network (in London)

Don’t look now, but the Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 after their dramatic win at Lambeau Field last week. The Vikings built a dominant 28-0 lead in the first half before the Packers got off the mat and made things way too interesting for Minnesota fans, with the Vikings just barely clinging to a 31-29 win. Sam Darnold is playing efficient quarterback for the first time since his days at USC. This time around, though, he will face a stiff New York Jets defense. The Jets’ offense only managed nine points last week in a surprising loss to Denver, but I expect the Jets’ ball security to be much better this time around. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen have to bounce back from a ridiculous rushing performance last week, so expect the Jets to benefit from watching film of the near-collapse that the Vikings had last week against Green Bay.

NFL Pick: Jets to win and cover.

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Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Chicago Bears (O/U 41.5)

When: Sunday, October 6, 1:00 pm ET, FOX

Andy Dalton played a solid game against Cincinnati last week. He didn’t get the win over the Bengals, though, and now he will have to lead the Panthers against a tough pass defense at Soldier Field. Chicago’s secondary can manage the Carolina receiving corps, which isn’t elite, and their pass rush can make the not-very-mobile Dalton rush into bad decisions. As far as the Chicago offense is concerned, Caleb Williams is figuring out how to play off the run and distribute the ball around the offense, finding the ideal matchup.

NFL Pick: Bears to win and cover.

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Miami Dolphins (+1) at New England Patriots (O/U 35.5)

When: Sunday, October 6, 1:00 pm ET, FOX

Yes, that’s right. The Miami Dolphins are road favorites at Gillette Stadium despite entering with a third-string quarterback. Patriots fans have to be mourning the depths to which this rebuild has brought the team. However, Miami’s Tyler Huntley has played well in the past, coming on in relief of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson for extended stints, and he still has Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill running routes. The New England secondary can be torched, and if the Patriots’ defense tries to load up against the pass, then De’Von Achane can burn them for some long gains. As far as offense is concerned, it’s beyond time for the Pats to consider trying out Drake Maye or Joe Milton III at quarterback. The O-line needs to protect more effectively, but Brissett looked cooked indeed in San Francisco last week.

NFL Pick: Dolphins to win and cover.

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Buffalo Bills (-1) at Houston Texans (O/U 47.5)

When: Sunday, October 6, 1:00 pm ET, CBS

Houston came back after playing poorly and stopped Jacksonville at home last week. Buffalo got torched left and right by the Ravens last week. Stefon Diggs will be looking to get revenge against his former team, and given the way both offenses work, this game could easily turn into a track meet. Yes, C.J. Stroud has the better wide receiver room, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell out there with Diggs, but Josh Allen has the better running game, with James Cook at tailback and his own ability to pick up big gains. The Texans have some gaping holes on defense, as we saw in their loss to Minnesota, and the Bills will be ready to exploit them.

NFL Pick: Bills to win, take the over.

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Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 49.5)

When: Sunday, October 6, 1:00 pm ET, CBS

Baltimore just dismantled the previously unbeaten Buffalo Bills in prime-time on Sunday night. Derrick Henry started the game with a long touchdown run, and the Ravens just kept running the ball all night. However, the Cincinnati Bengals have proven to be a difficult foil for the Ravens in the past, and Joe Burrow finally got the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense up and running a week ago. He has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins healthy and back on the field, and the retooled Cincinnati line will give him time in the pocket. He will find targets down the field in ways that Josh Allen did not, because the Bengals aren’t trying to reintegrate an entirely new group of wide receivers this season.

NFL Pick: Bengals to cover.

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Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) at San Francisco 49ers (O/U 50)

When: Sunday, October 6, 4:05 pm ET, FOX

Brock Purdy has developed his downfield passing game, and with George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel getting open down the field, that gives him three legitimate targets – more than the Arizona secondary can contain. Even with Christian McCaffrey (Achilles tendon) on the shelf, the 49ers will still be able to run the ball. Kyler Murray looked all-world in that rout of the L.A. Rams in Week 2, but now he’s falling back into a slump. Nick Bosa and the rest of the San Francisco pass rush should make life very difficult for him.

NFL Pick: 49ers to win and cover.

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SNF Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U 43)

When: Sunday, October 6, 8:20 pm ET, NBC

Yes, the Cowboys come in off the 10-day mini-bye with some momentum after beating the New York Giants on the road last Thursday. However, the Giants had a chance to win it on a last-second Hail Mary, a sign that the game was much, much closer than it should have been. The Cowboys struggle to run the ball, and they also struggle to stop the run. Were they able to limit the effectiveness of the Giants’ running game? Yes, especially in the red zone, but they couldn’t stop the Giants from driving into field goal range. If the Giants had managed just one touchdown, we could have seen overtime, or even a New York win. The Steelers like to run the ball over and over again, and with Justin Fields at quarterback, that makes a legitimate two-runner threat along with Najee Harris. The Steelers have a fierce pass rush, and they can take advantage of injuries on the Dallas O-line. Expect this to be a low-scoring affair, but also expect Pittsburgh to dominate both lines.

NFL Pick: Steelers to win and cover, take the under.

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