We’re almost at the end of the 2024 Olympics Games in Paris with the closing ceremonies set for 9:00 pm on Sunday, August 11, in Paris (3:00 pm Eastern time).
There are still some great matchups to watch, such as the bronze and gold medal games in men’s basketball – about which we have written a separate sports betting prediction.
For those of you who want to keep the Olympics in your wagering over the weekend, we have a discussion of some of the props from the men’s basketball gold-medal showdown between France and Team USA.
Also, check out some wagering opportunities from the last rounds from some of the other competitions.
We also have an updated medal count after the action on Friday, August 9.
Olympic Betting Props for the Weekend Betting Action and Medal Count
Olympic Medal Count (Top 10, Friday, August 9)
|
POS
|
COUNTRY |
GOLD
|
SILVER
|
BRONZE
|
TOTAL
|
|
1
|
United States
|
33
|
39
|
39
|
111
|
|
2
|
China
|
33
|
26
|
23
|
82
|
|
3
|
Australia
|
18
|
16
|
14
|
48
|
|
4
|
Japan
|
16
|
8
|
13
|
37
|
|
5
|
Great Britain
|
14
|
20
|
23
|
57
|
|
6
|
France
|
14
|
20
|
22
|
56
|
|
7
|
Republic of Korea
|
13
|
8
|
7
|
28
|
|
8
|
Netherlands
|
13
|
6
|
10
|
29
|
|
9
|
Germany
|
12
|
9
|
8
|
29
|
|
10
|
Italy
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
36
|
|
69
|
India
|
0
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
Props from Team USA-France (Gold-Medal Game, Men’s Basketball)
Kevin Durant OVER 13.5 points
That number could drift upwards, but until it hits 16, you should still take the over.
Yes, he’s finished under 13.5 points for three games in a row, but KD wasn’t really needed to beat Puerto Rico or Brazil, and Steph Curry, Joel Embiid and LeBron took over in the win over Serbia.
Against France, Team USA will need KD’s height to shoot over Victor Wembanyama, Guershon Yabusele and Mathias Lessort.
If Rudy Gobert’s finger is feeling better, that’s another big defender for KD to shoot over.
The smaller wings are likely to give way to the taller KD, who has shown he can take over big games.
Remember, he was the leading scorer for the men’s team in the Tokyo Olympics, which helped earn him the 2021 USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year award.
LeBron James OVER 31.5 PRA (points, rebounds, assists)
LeBron James seems to have embraced his role as the elder statesman on this team, negotiating his way through his last Olympic run. He played 32 minutes (of 40) against Serbia and had a triple-double. He leads Team USA in points, rebounds, and assists. In three of the five games so far, he has played at least 20 minutes, and he’s beaten this PRA number in two of those games. If France stays with their small-ball approach, that leaves more avenues for LeBron to get to the rim.Evan Fournier OVER 1.5 3-pt field goals
Fournier has to get hot from downtown for France to have any hope in this game. So far, he has made 35 percent of his three-ball attempts in these Olympics (9 of 26).
France’s small-ball approach means jacking up a lot of shots from downtown. They have made 33 percent as a team, putting up 28.2 shots from distance in their five games.
Victor Wembanyama leads France in three-point attempts, but Fournier is right behind him.
Joel Embiid OVER 12.5 points
When Embiid has faced Gobert and Wembanyama, he has taken them both to the woodshed.
Since Gobert went to Minnesota, Embiid has put up 32, 39 and 51 points against him – and Gobert is one of the best rim defenders in the NBA.
Embiid has faced Wembanyama once – and he put up 70. The other options for France? Putting Guerschon Yabusele or Mathias Lessort on him.
Are you kidding? Wembanyama cannot afford foul trouble, so expect Team USA to start by running the offense through Embiid. He might be over this total by halftime.
^Women’s Handball Gold-Medal Game: France (+105) vs Norway (+120) (Draw +600, O/U 50.5)
If you are thinking that handball is that game where you smack a ball about the size of a tennis ball against a wall, you’re not thinking of team handball.
In this game, you run up and down a basketball court, carrying a ball slightly smaller than a basketball, trying to throw it into a goal. France won the 2023 World Championships and is back in the gold-medal match, stopping Sweden, 31-28, in overtime on Thursday.
France was down by four goals in the second half before roaring back to force overtime, when the Swedish composure fell apart.
Center back Tamara Horacek had eight points, including the goal that tied the game and sent it into the extra frame.
Norway stopped Denmark, 25-21, to meet France for the title. Norway built an early lead and held onto it the whole way, leading by six with six minutes left and then holding off a furious rally from the Danish side.
Norwegian goalie Katrine Lunde blocked a penalty shot and had a 34% save percentage (which is quite high for team handball).
Kristina Jorgensen notched four goals in the game, but the Norwegian onslaught was just too much.
The gold-medal game should be an offensive showdown, and I like France to win, but I am even more confident in taking the over.
^Women’s Water Polo Gold-Medal Game: Spain (-175) vs Australia (+240) (Draw +600, O/U 18.5)
Can Spain finally win a gold medal in women’s water polo? They took silver in Tokyo three years ago and a dozen years ago in London.
Anni Espar Llaquet is one of four players on this year’s team that were on both of those silver-medal sides.
They’ve been the top team in these Olympics, going 4-0 in group play before smacking Canada by ten goals and then sending the Netherlands home in a semifinal shootout.
Next up is a date with Australia, after they sent Team USA in the semifinals. The Americans are the defending Olympic water polo champions, but the gold medal will rest on a new team after tomorrow’s action.
Australia limited Team USA to only eight goals during regulation and then won in a shootout. Both semifinals, then, went to shootouts.
Interestingly, no women’s water polo semifinal match at any Olympics had ever gone to penalty shots, but this year, it happened in both of them.
Australia has won three of their six games so far in penalties; the last time they won gold in women’s water polo was 2000, when the Olympics were down in Australia.
^An Olympic chalk toss! 💨 pic.twitter.com/XcPbfaU26m
— The Olympic Games (@Olympics) August 10, 2024
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Olympics Betting Props, August 2, 2024
The 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris have proven historic for athletes from around the world. Adriana Ruano broke an Olympic record en route to winning the women’s shooting trap final, bringing Guatemala its first Olympic gold medal ever. North Korea earned its first Olympic medal in diving, as the women’s synchronized 10-meter platform event proved fruitful for them. In rugby sevens, the United States won bronze after scoring on a try on the last play of the third-place match against Australia – the first medal for the U.S. in any rugby competition in 100 years. As we go into the weekend, let’s look at some of your the best sports betting props.
Olympic Betting Props for the Weekend: Men’s Soccer Quarterfinals Preview
Men’s Basketball: Puerto Rico (+33.5) to cover against the United States
Team USA has beaten Serbia by 26 and South Sudan by 17 so far in their group play action. Is South Sudan better than Serbia? Well, they have more length in the frontcourt, and their waves of rebounders and their ball distribution allowed them to play competitive ball against the top-ranked basketball team in the world.
You could argue that it comes down to motivation. After all, South Sudan almost beat Team USA in a warmup game, as it took a late layup from LeBron James for Team USA to escape with the 101-100 victory. However, South Sudan held their own in the African Games and has shown no fear against anyone. They might just be this good. However, the United States also beat Canada by 14, and the Canadian team is the second-most talented in this tournament.
So will Team USA make a statement by blowing the doors off Puerto Rico? Or will they cruise along to a win – but a more modest win? They would need to play four quarters of intense ball to cover this spread, but using that much energy could detract from the stamina they have for the knockout rounds. So winning by 15 or 20 points is certainly a much more reasonable expectation. I would take the underdogs to cover here.
^
Olympics Men’s Basketball: South Sudan (+14.5) to cover against Serbia
Just because South Sudan has only been a country since 2011 does not mean that they are not here to play legitimate basketball. Carlik Jones can fill up the stat sheet, even when his shooting from downtown is on the cold side. The forwards can all score, and if they could take advantage of the paint against the United States, they can do it against Serbia. They scored 86 in their loss to the United States and dropped 90 on Puerto Rico in a double-digit victory, and if Puerto Rico had pushed the pace, South Sudan could easily have broken triple digits.
Serbia allowed 110 points in their loss to Team USA, so an offense with talent and speed can get all kinds of points. South Sudan can get to the basket and score, and if Serbia isn’t careful, South Sudan might end up not just covering but taking this game straight up and finishing in second place in this group.
Olympics Men’s Swimming: 1500m Freestyle – Ryan Finke (+350) to win
On the women’s side, Katie Ledecky won this event so emphatically that she could have stopped and had a quick snack near the finish line before the runner-up would have gotten close enough to catch her. This won’t be the case in the men’s event, as Robert Finke and Daniel Wiffen will push each other hard, just like they did in the 800m free.
Interestingly, though, Wiffen comes in as the heavy favorite, giving Finke a ton of betting value. Wiffen did run away with the 1500m at the World Aquatics Championships earlier this year, but Finke wasn’t there. When Finke won the 1500m at the 2023 World Aquatics Championships, his time was faster than Wiffen’s time earlier this year. Having them both in the pool at the same time will make watching a mile-long swim unusually exciting.
After these two swimmers, the rest of the field drops off significantly. Florian Wellbrock just isn’t fast enough to keep up, and Gregorio Paltrinieri is losing the battle against Father Time.
Olympics Men’s Track and Field: 100m Dash
The favorite here is Noah Lyles, the defending World Champion. The field also includes Fred Kerley, the 2022 World Champion, Lamon Marcell, who won gold at the 2020 Tokyo Games, and nine other men who could all realistically end up on the podium. Let’s look at the odds list for everyone with odds lower than +10000:
- Noah Lyles (USA) -120
- Kishane Thompson (Jamaica) +130
- Oblique Seville (Jamaica), Fred Kerley (USA) +950
- Kenny Bednarek (USA) +2000
- Letsile Tebogo (Botswana) +3100
- Ferdinand Omanyala (Kenya) +4200
- Lamon Marcell Jacobs (Italy) +4500
- Ackeem Blake (Jamaica) +5500
- Akani Simbine (South Africa) +6500
- Zharnel Hughes (Great Britain) +7500
- Andre de Grasse (Canada) +8000
It makes sense to see Lyles as the favorite, as he is not only the defending World Champion but is currently ranked first in the world in this event. However, Kishane Thompson (9.77) has the best active time, which he pulled off at the Jamaican trials just over a month ago. That was a career mark for him; his previous best had been 9.85. In his most recent event, in Hungary in July, he posted a 9.91. His competition has not been as solid as it will be in Paris, so we’ll see if that pushes him or causes him to falter.
Oblique Seville got injured in the final at the Jamaican trials, but he worked with Usain Bolt’s doctor and is reportedly at 100% for the GAmes. He beat Noah Lyles in Kingston back in June and is a threat to take gold here. Kerley is another runner with a chance, especially since he has solved his issues getting out of the blocks. However, if he doesn’t start well, he can’t catch the other top runners here. Lyles has a chance to win the 100, 200 and 4×100 in these Olympics; no one else is better than him coming out of the blocks as well as finishing. Picking Seville to medal, though, makes a lot of sense, if you’re looking for a wager with more value than just taking Lyles to win.
^
Olympics Women’s Track and Field: 100m Dash
Like we did on the men’s side, let’s look at the contender odds (lower than +10000).
- Sha’carri Richardson (USA) -310
- Julien Alfred (St. Lucia) +460
- Melissa Jefferson (USA), Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce (Jamaica) +1300
- Tia Clayton (Jamaica) +1300
- Marie-Josee Ta Lou (Ivory Coast), Twanisha Terry (USA), Dina Asher-Smith (Great Britain) +5500
This race lost a bit of its competitiveness when Elaine Thompson-Herah, the defending gold medalist, didn’t come to Paris. Also, Shericka Jackson withdrew from the 100m earlier this week so she could focus on the 200m. Fraser-Pryce won silver at the 2020 Tokyo Games but has been dealing with injuries over the last 12-15 months, and she hasn’t gotten below 10.91 in 2024. That would be her worst year best since 2018 (10.98).
Richardson won her first Olympic race (her 100m preliminary heat), and she is the heavy favorite as the Jamaicans who swept the podium in Tokyo are all either off the track or looking a lot less dangerous. She doesn’t come with nearly as much value as she did in the early spring and summer.
You can find some value in the market for the “To Medal” prop. Melissa Jefferson is between +185 and +200 on a lot of books, and Fraser-Pryce also has reasonable odds to medal. Jefferson has beaten Fraser-Pryce’s season best in all three of her trial heats for the Olympics. It looks like the betting market is giving Fraser-Pryce a bit too much credit thanks to her silver medal from Tokyo, so you can leverage that imbalance here.
^
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