NCAAF Playoff First Round Lines | If you look at the main problems that SMU football has faced over the last two years, they begin with opponents who have superior size on the offensive line and who can pound the ball on the ground against them.
We saw this in the Mustangs’ loss to Boston College in last season’s Fenway Bowl, and we saw it in their home loss to BYU in the regular season.
They got revenge on BC and won at home this season, but the Eagles’ ability to dominate the line of scrimmage when they had the ball and run the ball mostly at will made life harder for SMU.
Penn State ran for 292 yards in their Big Ten Championship loss to Oregon.
SMU’s rushing defense has been solid this season, ranking fourth in the nation and permitting just 93.4 yards per game, but even in the ACC, most of their opponents haven’t had the line advantage that Penn State has.
Kaytron Allen ran for 124 yards and a touchdown for the Nittany Lions against Oregon. Nick Singleton ran for 105 yards, and quarterback Drew Allar ran for 54 yards and a touchdown.
Can SMU slow the Penn State rushing attack down – or keep up, using their tempo offense? We have your sports betting preview right here.
NCAAF Playoff First Round Lines: SMU Mustangs at Penn State Nittany Lions
NCAAF Odds: Penn State -8.5 / O/U 53.5
When: Saturday, December 21, 2024, 12:00 pm ET
Where: Beaver Stadium, State College, PA
TV: TNT
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAAF Playoff First Round Lines, Final Score and Prediction
Did you know that Penn State is just 6-7 against the spread this year? When they have entered as the favorite, they have covered six times in 10 opportunities. If SMU is going to post the upset, they will have to give Kevin Jennings protection. The Mustangs are 23rd in the nation in sack percentage permitted, but the Nittany Lions are 23rd in the nation in defensive sack percentage.
Also, SMU has to avoid the sort of disastrous start that they put out there in the ACC Championship, giving Clemson two short fields and allowing two easy touchdowns in the first five minutes of the game. SMU did come back to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, but it was a matter of too little, too late. The Mustangs have done well in tough road environments – Louisville and Duke particularly come to mind – but Penn State is next level.
SMU should be able to stay within a touchdown here, though, and if the Mustangs can generate pressure on Allar, they have an excellent shot at prying a turnover or two away.
I predict a final score of SMU 27, Penn State 24.
^SMU Mustangs Analysis
Quarterback Kevin Jennings led Dallas South Oak Cliff (TX) to a Texas state football championship. He came off the bench to lead SMU to an AAC Championship win at Tulane last season. This season, he’s improved once again, taking the starting job from Preston Stone and earning praise from no less than Nick Saban, who has referred to Jennings as the “most underrated quarterback” in the nation. He has thrown for 3,050 yards and has a 22:8 TD:INT ratio. He has also run for 379 yards and five scores.
🗣️ "Kevin's a dawg, man."
— SMU Football (@SMUFB) December 18, 2024
Coach Lashlee had high praise for QB1 on the @PatMcAfeeShow 🔥#PonyUp pic.twitter.com/dxtAa5Wqlm
His top receiver is Roderick Daniels Jr, who has 38 catches for 599 yards and three touchdowns, and he has run for three other touchdowns. Key’Shawn Smith has caught 31 balls for 512 yards and five scores. Jordan Huson has 35 catches for 382 yards and five scores as Jennings has excelled at spreading the offense around. On the ground, Brassard Smith has run for 1,270 yards and four scores. L.J. Johnson has 277 yards on the ground and five scores.
The defense is 28th in the nation in points permitted, and 30th in yards permitted. Kobe Wilson is the top tackler with 110, along with three sacks, two picks, two passes defensed, a forced fumble, and a defensive touchdown.
^Penn State Nittany Lions Analysis
Quarterback Drew Allar has responded to challenges after last season that he needed to stretch the ball and bring more dynamic action to the passing game. He has thrown for 2,894 yards and 21 touchdowns with seven interceptions. On the ground, he has 279 yards and six touchdowns.
SN First Team All-Americans@1NCRDB1 x #TylerWarren#WeAre pic.twitter.com/QrVLdfTUzc
— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) December 18, 2024
Wide receiver Tyler Warren has 88 catches for 1,062 yards and received votes in the Heisman Trophy race. Harrison Wallace III has 39 catches for 638 yards, and he and Warren have combined for 10 scores. Tailback Kaytron Allen has run for 822 yards and six scores, and he has 119 receiving yards and a pair of touchdown catches.
Nicholas Singleton has 838 rushing yards and seven scores, and he caught 37 balls for 335 and four more touchdowns. The Penn State D ranks seventh in points permitted and fifth in yards permitted. Abdul Carter has 10 sacks, three passes defensed and two forced fumbles.
^Xbet NCAA Football Odds for the Game
NCAAF Playoff First Round Lines for SMU Mustangs at Penn State Nittany Lions
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