How are the US Politics Odds? Few presidential elections in the history of the United States have been as tumultuous as the 2024 election.
The Democratic Party looked ready to nominate the sitting President, Joe Biden, to run for a second term in office.
However, after a poor performance in a debate on June 27, pressure from the media and from within the Democratic Party caused President Biden to withdraw from the election.
The timing of his withdrawal, coming after the Republican Party had already held its convention and nominated Donald J. Trump as its candidate for the third straight election, left the Democrats with no real options beyond coalescing around Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris.
Let’s look at the odds for contenders as well as some thoughts about the race.
US Politics Odds: Betting on the 2024 Presidential Election Props | Contender Odds to Win the Election
- Donald Trump -175
- Kamala Harris +135
- Michelle Obama +6500
- Hillary Clinton +15000
- Gavin Newsom +8000
- Gretchen Whitmer +10000
- Robert Kennedy Jr. +8000
If we look past Trump and Harris, the odds get long in a hurry. The only one of those four “candidates” actually running is Kennedy.
He has stayed in the race despite having difficulty getting on the ballot in many states because of his low performance in polling and his staff’s trouble meeting filing deadlines in terms of signed petitions.
He is running as an independent, and some of his positions, such as embracing conspiracy theories with respect to a wide range of vaccines, and some issues from his past, such as sexual harassment allegations that he has basically laughed off, have kept him from getting more widespread popularity.
The rest of the Kennedy family has disavowed his candidacy, instead standing behind the Democratic Party candidates.
Recently, audio of a conversation between Kennedy and Trump was released, in which Trump attempted to get Kennedy to drop out of the race by promising him a job in his administration. For now, though, Kennedy has stayed in the race.
^Michelle Obama
Obama has repeatedly indicated that she has no interest in running for President.
She was the First Lady for former President Barack Obama and held a high profile for a number of important initiatives during his time in office. However, her popularity among certain parts of the Democratic Party has kept her name in the conversation.
^Hillary Clinton
Clinton was the First Lady for former President Bill Clinton. She also served as a senator from New York and as Secretary of State for President Obama.
She was the Democratic nominee for President in 2016. For her to end up running for office now, the Democratic Convention would have to break down and enter a period of chaos, resulting in her nomination.
This could also lead to legal challenges from the Republican Party about her eligibility to hold the nomination after not having run in the primaries. The same problems could arise if Michelle Obama were suddenly to run.
^J.D. Vance
Vance is the Republican nominee for Vice President. For him to run, Trump would either have to withdraw or suffer a fatality between now and the election.
J.D. has been in the press a lot lately for a wide variety of controversial statements and other facts.
His comparison of childless women to “cat ladies” with “no physical stake” in the future of the United States has drawn a lot of criticism.
^In the current race between Trump and Harris, such details as the controversial comments that Trump made in front of a gathering of the National Association of Black Journalists claiming that Harris recently decided to “turn black” seem to be pushing the polling in Harris’ direction.
Harris comes with a little more betting value, and as the current critique of the Trump-Vance campaign as “weird” takes root, the numbers may shift more in Harris’ direction.
USA Presidential Election Opinion Polls Predictions as on July 25, 2024:
— World Info (@Worldinfo_354) July 25, 2024
Source: Real Clear Politics pic.twitter.com/wNf9Kiqbgv
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