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How Do the NBA Playoffs Work?

 

No North American pro sports league has tried to approach the idea of championships and recognition than the NBA. The 82-game regular season was seen as drudgery, particularly in the early going, so the league came out with the Emirates NBA Cup. This takes place in the fall each year, shortly after the start of the regular season. Most of the games also count in the regular season standings, except for the knockout rounds. This reflects a similar move in international pro soccer leagues, where first-division teams also take part in national and international tournaments. However, in those soccer leagues, those outside competitions are not part of their domestic first-division league standings. Even with the playoffs, though, the NBA has tried in recent years to make the end of the regular season more exciting for more teams (and prevent as many teams as possible from “tanking” down the stretch). This push against perceived intentional losing to optimize draft position has been going on for 40 years now – in 1985, the league instituted a draft lottery, open to the teams that don’t make the playoffs, instead of simply awarding the top draft choice to the team with the worst regular-season record and moving downward from there in the draft order. The push for a more exciting finish to the regular season actually opens the door to 20 of the 30 teams to vie for the title after the end of the regular season.

Let’s look at the current NBA playoff format and learn how do the NBA Playoffs work, plus we get to discuss potential sports betting opportunities and the teams we like to get into the playoffs.

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What is the Playoff Format?

Each conference has 15 teams, and at the end of the regular season, the top six teams in each conference are guaranteed slots in the postseason, seeded 1 through 6 in their conference bracket.

The next four teams (7th through 10th place) in each conference go into a play-in tournament. The 7th place team hosts the 8th place team, and the winner gets the 7-seed. The 9th place team hosts the 10th place team, and the loser is eliminated. The winner visits the 7-vs-8 winner, and the winner of that game gets the 8-seed, with the loser eliminated.

Once the eight seeds are set in each conference, then bracket play begins. Each round features a best-of-seven format, with the higher seed hosting four of the games. The conference champions square off in the NBA Finals. 

Let’s look at a quick example. In the Eastern Conference today, here are the top 10 teams in order: Cleveland, Boston, New York, Indiana, Milwaukee, Detroit, Orlando, Atlanta, Miami and Chicago. The first six teams would automatically take the top six seeds. Orlando would host Atlanta, and the winner would have the seventh seed. Miami would host Chicago for the right to face the Orlando-Atlanta loser on the road for the eighth seed.

What wagers can you make right now for the playoffs?

There are several futures wagers you can make right now ahead of the NBA playoffs. One of them is to pick the eventual champion. Depending on the sportsbook, the favorite right now is either the Oklahoma City Thunder or the Boston Celtics. You can also wager on the winner of each conference and the winner of each division. Division titles are given out at the end of the regular season and have no bearing on playoff seeding, but those can be fun to track.

There also a number of end-of-season awards that you can place wagers on. The NBA Most Valuable Player, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, and Sixth Man of the Year. You can also still find some books that still take action on win totals for the 2024-25 regular season.

 

Who will Make the Playoffs?

Western Conference

Oklahoma City (44-10) finally got Chet Holmgren back from a fractured pelvis, and now the Thunder have a “Twin Towers” lineup featuring him and fellow 7-footer Isaiah Hartenstein. In their first two games together, the Thunder were +25 over 31 minutes with both of them on the floor – even though Holmgren showed a lot of offensive rust in those games. His rim defense is fresh, though – he blocked 9 shots over those two contests. In the playoffs.

Denver (36-19) has an eight-game winning streak going even with Peyton Watson and Russell Westbrook on the shelf due to injuries. They didn’t do any trades at the deadline, showing they believe in this roster to give Nikola Jokic the help he needs to make a deep playoff run. Jokic and Westbrook have a developing game chemistry, and Michael Porter Jr has a three-game streak with 30 or more points. Christian Braun has a 15-game streak with double figures in points. In the playoffs.

Memphis (36-18) has won five out of six, although they showed a lack of composure in their only loss in that stretch – a setback against Oklahoma City. They couldn’t get offensive boards in that game – and so they took 24 fewer shots than the Thunder did. Ja Morant  ame back to the lineup on February 3 and has played four games in a row. They need him to be hot as they continue a road swing that will end in Cleveland on FEbruary 23. In the playoffs.

The Lakers (32-20) are definitely on the rise after fleecing Dallas for Luka Doncic. He does have a minutes restriction after a six-week absence with a calf strain (and his conditioning problems that were well documented in Dallas). Doncic plans to train throughout the All-Star break, and if the Lakers can get strong inside play, the pairing of Doncic and LeBron makes this team a smart value pick to win the title, or at least the conference. In the playoffs.

Houston (34-21) has popped out of a six-game losing streak; they started their turnaround by opening a homestand with a defensive showcase against Toronto, holding the Raptors to just 87 points. Fred VanVleet and Alperen Sengun are on the shelf for now, so the injuries are adding up. In the playoffs.

Minnesota (31-25) saw Anthony Edwards put together a three-game streak with at least 40 points. However, they lost to Cleveland on Monday despite getting 44 out of the Ant Man. They lost to Milwaukee on Wednesday but bounced back the next night, taking down Oklahoma City at home. This is a dangerous team at times, but they will have a hard time winning a seven-game series against some of the top teams in the West. In the playoffs.

The Clippers (31-23) made some offensive moves at the trade deadline, including the addition of Bogdan Bogdanovic to add some crucial outside shooting. They also got Ben Simmons, an underrated ball handler who can run point with the second group while also adding length and size on defense and on the boards. Patty Mills and Drew Eubanks are interesting veterans to add some experience on the bench. I’m not sure these are enough to keep the Clips in the top six, though. In the play-in.

Dallas (30-26) sold its fans on how bringing Anthony Davis to town in exchange for Luka would transform the team’s culture and defensive mindset. He was dominating his debut until he went down with a non-contact adductor injury that has him on the shelf for weeks. Big men Daniel Gafford (knee), Dereck Lively II (stress fracture) and Dwight Powell (hip) are all out, and so two-way player Kessler Edwards has been manning the paint. This led to a ridiculous overtime loss to Sacramento, but the team bounced back with wins over Golden State and Miami. Max Christie came over in the trade with the Lakers, though, and the 3-and-D swingman has put up 17.0 points and 5.3 boards per game, shooting 51.2% overall and 57.9% from beyond the arc. In the play-in.

Golden State (28-27) has a 2-1 record since trading for Jimmy Butler, but they’re still just 16-24 since that 12-3 start to the season. Butler has worked on pick-and-rolls with Stephen Curry, and he has also built communication with Draymond Green. Butler can finish games, create shots, get foul calls, defend and distribute the balls. Those are all skills that the Warriors needed. How long do the Warriors have before Jimmy Butler’s penchant for drama reappears, though? How long will Green’s mindset hold? In the play-in.

Sacramento (28-27) has reunited Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, who were also in the same backcourt in Chicago. DeRozan knocked down the game-tying shot at the end of regulation in Dallas and also had the game-winner in overtime. That made 11 go-ahead shots in the last five seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime over the last 15 seasons. The only player with more is Stephen Curry (12). They split a pair of games down in New Orleans going into the All-Star break. In the play-in.

Notable Teams out of the Playoffs: Phoenix, San Antonio

 

Eastern Conference

Cleveland (44-10) got De’Andre Hunter from Atlanta before the trade deadline. Despite foul trouble limiting him to just 23 minutes in his debut, he put up 12 points. He also helped the Cavs beat Minnesota to get to 25 home wins, a number that leads the league. Holding that lead before the All-Star break would give them home-court advantage throughout the playoffs so long as they hang onto that top seed. In the playoffs.

Boston (39-16) is waiting for Jrue Holiday to come back from his right shoulder impingement. At the trade deadline, the Celtics didn’t do a whole lot because they see their roster as solid enough to win another title. However, if any other injuries creep up, they could suffer from some lack of depth down the stretch. In the playoffs.

New York (36-18) had won seven of their last 10 before they took a beating from Boston on Saturday. They did bounce back with a win over Atlanta, but losing to the Celtics by 27 in a game that was viewed as a test had to be disappointing. Mitchell Robinson and O.G. Anunoby are still not quite ready to take the floor, but when they do, the Knicks should be even more dangerous. In the playoffs.

Indiana (30-23) has enjoyed the acquisition of Pascal Siakam at last year’s trade deadline. He has shot a career-best 41.1% from behind the arc this year while putting up 20.7 points and 7.4 boards per game. Since January, the Pacers have been trending upward; if they can stay healthy, this is a system that is rolling. In the playoffs.

Milwaukee (29-24) has played the last six games without Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they’ve gone 3-3 in those games, including a 103-101 win in Minnesota that saw late heroics from Brook Lopez. Damian Lillard will represent the Bucks at the All-Star Game, as his scoring has helped the Bucks stay afloat as well. In the playoffs.

Detroit (29-26) has its first All-Star since 2019 in Cade Cunningham. Being in the Eastern Conference is definitely helping the Pistons’ chances of hanging onto a top-six slot and qualifying automatically for the conference quarterfinals. In the playoffs.

Miami (25-28) now has Andrew Wiggins in the rotation, but it didn’t help in losses to Boston, Oklahoma City and Dallas. Not even Tyler Herro’s 40-point night in Dallas could get the Heat to a win. Wiggins can shoot and defend, and he’s durable. But is it going to be enough to keep the Heat afloat? In the play-in.

Orlando (27-29) have played 11 games since getting Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero back from injury. They’ve won just three times, though. Those two players were working at a high level at the start of the season. They do have the fifth-easiest schedule left after the All-Star break. But can they move up? In the play-in.

Atlanta (26-29) had a three-game winning streak end in New York. However, their defense has started to show up, climbing from 21st to 11th in the NBA since December 2. In the play-in.

Chicago (22-33) is excited by rookie Matas Buzelis, who has moved to the starting lineup after the trade of Zach LaVine. In his first two starts, he played 29 minutes per game and put up 18.0 points and 3.7 boards per game, shooting 67% from the floor. Things are tough out of the break, though, with trips to New York and Philadelphia sandwiched around a home date with Phoenix. In the play-in.

Notable Teams out of the Playoffs: Brooklyn, Philadelphia

 
 

NBA Playoffs

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NCAA News: March Madness Bracket Strategy

The NCAA men’s basketball tournament – “March Madness” – has had the same 64-team bracket since 1985. The addition of the “First Four” games to settle the final 11-seeds and 16-seeds is more recent, but by the time the official first round begins, there are 64 schools ready to vie for a national championship. You can fill out brackets in any number of free online contests. You can also fill out a paper one (if you’re old-school like that) as part of an informal betting pool. Either way, if you fill out one, you’ll be making one of an estimated 60-100 million guesses as to the outcome of each game. Of the officially posted brackets, none have ever been perfect. In fact, the closest anyone has gotten is Gregg Nigl, who predicted the first 49 games of the 2019 bracket correctly. He made it to Game 50 – the second game of the Sweet 16 – where 3-seed Purdue beat 2-seed Tennessee, 99-94, in overtime.

Is Nigl a sports betting expert? Maybe, but that’s not his profession – he’s a neuropsychologist. Since then, the last perfect brackets have ended sooner – the 28th game in 2021; the first Friday of the tournament in 2022, when 11-seed Iowa State knocked off 6-seed LSU; the 25th game in 2023, when Fairleigh Dickinson shocked 1-seed Pursdue in the first round; and the 31st game in 2024, when 8-seed Utah State stopped 9-seed TCU.

We have put together some tips to help you get the most out of your bracket this year – so read on to maximize your College Basketball winnings.

 

NCAA News: March Madness Bracket Strategy

 

The Best Strategy for Filling Out a Bracket

You’ll be picking winners for 63 games in your bracket. The good news is that you don’t have to get them all right to win – as we saw above, no one has ever gotten close. However, if you’re going to win your pool or contend in one of the large online contests, you need to get a lot of them right. The NCAA has a Men’s Bracket Challenge Game (MBCG) each year, and if you look at the last eight winners in that contest, the average number of correct picks for the winning bracket is 51.4. That means that the average winner gets about 11 or 12 games wrong, but you have to make the right mistakes.

In most brackets, games double in value after each round, so being right matters more in the later rounds. Contest winners generally see their losses come in the early rounds. If we look back at the last eight MBCG winners, they combined to “lose” 93 games. Of those 93, 49 (53%) came in the first round. That’s not that surprising since 32 of the 63 elections (or 51%) come in the first round. The second round brought 29 combined winners. Beginning with the Sweet 16, though, you’re going to need to be just about perfect with your picks. Starting with the Elite 8, your bracket needs to be mistake-free for you to feel confident about winning.

How about those Elite 8 picks? If you get to that round with seven or eight of those picks left, then you’re still in good shape – as long as that eighth team you missed loses in this round. Even one or two mistakes can be survivable – seven of the last MBCG champions missed two Elite 8 teams or fewer. Combined, they picked 30 of the 32 Final Four schools correctly. The only exceptions were the Loyola-Chicago Cinderella in 2018 and the 2023 Miami Hurricanes. It becomes crucial, though, to get the picks right from here on out.

This means that you can’t stress about first- and second-round mistakes. If that 8-vs-9  matchup doesn’t go your way, or even if a 14-seed upsets a 3-seed, as long as you had that 3-seed fading before the Elite 8, you should be all right. After all, three of the last eight MBCG winners missed more than seven games in the first round. Five of the last eight winners have gotten at least one of their double-digit upset picks wrong, which means that the favorite won instead. In 2018, the champion won even though they had Virginia going to the Elite 8. That was the year Fairleigh Dickinson sent them home in the first round. What helped the champion that year was the number of brackets that had Virginia going even further – or even winning the whole thing.

One quick word about the championship game, though. Let’s say you get to the last game, and both of the teams are the ones you picked to get there. If this is you, you are way up high on the leaderboard. If you look back, the championship games matched some unlikely teams in the past. In 2017, we had UNC and Gonzaga. In 2019, we had Virginia and Texas Tech. In 2021, we had Baylor and Gonzaga. Picking finals matchups like that takes research – and a good bit of good fortune. Once you’re there, though, you’re miles ahead in terms of points. Yes, you want to get the winner correct, but depending on the size of your pool, and the picks that others make, things might even be academic at this point.

 

Common Bracket Mistakes

As you can see, there isn’t much room for error if you’re going to win a bracket pool. A lot of people focus on choosing the right upsets, but there are some obvious mistakes that you can help yourself avoid.

Don’t choose a team that has won fewer than six of their last 10 coming in. How have teams been playing in late February and early March? Some teams stumble into the tournament, standing tall in the early part of the regular season but then taking on some water in the second half of conference play. Then they get bounced in the first or second round of the conference tournament. They get an at-large pick to the Big Dance, but then they fall out in the first weekend, or even the first round. It might even be a blue-blood program! Just remember that the name on the front of the jersey (the school) is not what makes the plays to win.

Don’t let recent wins oversell you on a team, though. Yes, Oregon State rolled to a Pac-12 tournament title back in 2021. (Yes, there was still a Pac-12 in 2021, instead of the Pac-2 we have today). A team might go on a mighty run at the end of the regular season and sweep their conference tournament and take the automatic conference bid into the tournament. That team might have been underperforming all season, only to figure things out and play up to the level of their actual talent. They also might have been playing out of their minds during the conference tournament. In the first case, we can expect the opening round (or perhaps two) to go their way. However, once reality kicks in (and their later-round opponents get more game film on them), then it’s important to remember that the top seeds are the top seeds for a reason.

Don’t forget that a team’s reputation has nothing to do with this year’s performance. If you look at the ACC this season, you might not be surprised that Duke leads the men’s hoops standings. However, runner-up Clemson, which has been solid for a couple of seasons, is just a half-game out of the lead. Louisville has climbed out of the dumpster and sits in third. But how about North Carolina? They’re just seventh in the conference. Virginia? They’re just barely at .500 on the year at 12-12 (5-8 ACC). Syracuse (11-14, 5-9 ACC) is another historically great program struggling. Oh, and Miami – the 2023 Final Four team? Their head coach walked away a couple of weeks into the season, and the Hurricanes sit at 6-18 (2-11 ACC). So let’s say North Carolina is able to waltz through the ACC tournament somehow and get the automatic qualifier bid. They’re still an extremely shaky proposition to get to the second weekend, no matter how many championship banners hang in the Dean E. Smith Center.

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Don’t pick any 16-seeds to win in the first round 

Yes, Maryland-Baltimore County dropped Virginia as a 16-seed in 2018 – the first time in 136 tries that a 16-seed had beaten a 1-seed. Five years later, Fairleigh Dickinson did the same thing to Purdue. If you pick a 16-seed to win, and you end up being right, you can likely celebrate that win for about 48 hours, because a 16-seed won’t be winning two games on that opening weekend. The reward is a lot smaller than the risk – which includes marking off a team that could go all the way to the Final Four, or even further. So just avoid the temptation.

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Don’t Choose Your Favorite Team to Win – Unless They’re Also an Elite Team

It’s one thing to get excited when your alma mater makes the Big Dance for the first time since 1957 or something. But they’re now a 13-seed for a reason. Could they beat that shaky 4-seed? Maybe. But will they get any farther than that? Don’t bet on it. Similarly, don’t pick against teams because you dislike personalities associated with them. Each week, we see more and more reasons not to like UConn’s Dan Hurley, for example. However, his Huskies are two-time back-to-back champions, and while they’re out of the Top 25 right now, they did just win at Creighton, and his system will make them a tough out in the tournament.

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Tips for Picking Upsets / Reasons to Pick Higher Seeds

If you pick the favorites to win each game, you won’t win your pool. Choosing upsets is a must, but it’s important to be judicious. Not every 12-seed will knock off a 5-seed, even though this is the most common upset. You’ll want to pick some low seeds for upsets, but not too many. So how can you choose?

The selection committee gives some teams higher seeds than others for a variety of reasons. Their records might be better, but the committee also considers factors such as strength of schedule. However, sometimes the committee rewards program history and conference size too much. So a 5-seed from, say, the SEC who finished in the middle of the standings could be quite vulnerable to the second-place team from, say, the Atlantic 10. 

Other factors to consider have to do with team pace, strengths and weaknesses. Some teams are built like the 1990s Detroit Pistons – terrific interior defense combined with inconsistent outside shooting. Other teams are built like the Golden State Warriors from the next couple of decades, designed to run and gun, shoot from deep, and just overwhelm the other team with their ability to simply score, using more of a “small ball” approach. Some matchups will favor one team over the other, even when the seeding seems to point you in a different direction.

You’ll also want to keep a key eye on injury reports because the absence of even one key player can make a difference for a team’s fortunes. Even though you pick the whole bracket before the start of the tournament, you can still reduce the chances that injuries will derail your team with a quick check of those reports before you lock in your brackets.

In the final analysis, March Madness is very difficult to p redict – it’s called “Madness” for a reason. However, with enough research, you can keep a lot of the seemingly random factors at play from wrecking your bracket. 

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How Do the Stanley Cup Playoffs Work

No trophy in professional sports is older than the Stanley Cup, which dates back to 1892. It was originally the award for the top amateur ice hockey club in Canada and was named after Lord Stanley of Preston, the Governor General of Canada. The Montreal Hockey Club were the first winners, back in 1893, and pro teams became eligible to vie for it starting in 1906. Today, there are three Stanley Cups: the original bowl, the “Presentation Cup” and the “Permanent Cup,” which has been corrected for spelling. The Presentation Cup is usually the one that you can see at the Hockey Hall of Fame, but when it’s not there, the Permanent Cup sits in its place. The Presentation Cup goes to the winners of the playoffs, and each player gets a day with it. That has led to some needed repairs, as when one of the Dallas Stars, who won the Cup in 1999, dropped it in his swimming pool and it received a noticeable dent. We’re still a couple of months away from the start of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, but it’s time to start thinking about this event on your sports betting radar.

Let’s go over how the NHL playoffs work and how you can start building it into your wagering.

 

NHL News: How Do the Stanley Cup Playoffs Work?

 

What is the playoff format?

The NHL currently has 32 clubs, and 16 of them qualify for the playoffs. The league is divided into four divisions (Metropolitan and Atlantic in the Eastern Conference, and Central and Pacific in the Western Conference). The top three finishers in each division qualify for the playoffs, and then the next two best records from each conference qualify as wild cards. Standings are based on points – teams receive two points for regulation, overtime or shootout wins and one point for an overtime or shootout loss.

In the first round, the wild card team with the worst record opens against the division winner from that same conference with the best record. The other wild card team opens against the other division winner. The second-place and third-place teams within each division open against each other. All series are in best-of-seven format. If the division champions win their opening rounds, they would face the winner of the second- and third-place series from their own division.

To give an example, let’s look at how the Western Conference side of the bracket would look if the season ended today (February 11, 2025).

In the Central Division, the top three teams are the Winnipeg Jets, the Dallas Stars, and the Minnesota Wild. In the Pacific Division, the Edmonton Oilers, the Vegas Golden Knights, and the L.A. Kings are the top three. After those six teams, the team with the next-best record is the Colorado Rockies, who have 68 points. After that, the other wild-card team would be the Vancouver Canucks, who have 63 points.

The Jets have the best record in the conference, with 81 points. They would open against the Canucks. The Oilers would open against the Rockies. The Stars and Wild would square off, as would the Golden Knights and the Kings.

What wagers can you make right now for the playoffs?

There are a number of futures props out there for NHL bettors right now. You can bet on which team you think will win the Cup, as well as each division at the end of the regular season, and the conference just before the Cup Finals. There are futures props on each of the end-of-season awards, such as the Hart Trophy (league MVP), the Vezina Trophy (the top goalie), and the Art Ross Trophy (the individual scoring leader). There’s also the Jack Adams Trophy (for the league’s best coach), but it can be hard to find odds for that before the league names finalists late in the season.

Who will make the playoffs?

Western Conference

The Winnipeg Jets took off winning at an historic pace. They did cool off a bit, but they now have a six-game winning streak and an 8-2-0 record over their last 10 games. They lead the NHL with total points and their +64 goal differential. The question down the stretch is whether Connor Hellebuyck can carry them in net through the playoffs – as it has been for the last few seasons. In the playoffs.

The Edmonton Oilers finally have ownership willing to spend on talent – which is a must in today’s NHL. It’s not like the 1980s, when the Oil could run off multiple Cup titles without sinking big dollars into free agency. The Oilers are now the NHL’s sixth-most valuable franchise at US$2.45 billion. In 2002, they were only worth $86 million, which ranked 30th. Investing in quality pays off in franchise value, and the pairing of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl makes Edmonton one of the most dangerous teams in the league, night in and night out. In the playoffs.

The Dallas Stars are still rolling along despite missing Tyler Seguin and Miro Heiskanen. It’s possible that they won’t return for the rest of the regular season. They do have an elite goalie in Jake Oettinger, and they’ve added Cody Ceci and Mikael Granlund, but with those two big holes in the lineup, they need another scorer and another defenseman to secure things down the stretch. In the playoffs.

Did you know that the Vegas Golden Knights have made the playoffs each year of their existence as a franchise except for 2021-22? They won the Cup two years ago before getting bounced in the first round last year, and now they’re making another case as a contender, sitting in second in the Pacific. Imagine what might happen if Adin Hill and Ilya Samsonov (or at least one of them) started playing up to their past excellence in net. In the playoffs.

The Minnesota Wild have some injury worries, but they’re tight against the salary cap, so they don’t have a lot of room to bring in outside help. If they do make a move, they’ll have to do so by finding greatness in the bargain bin. The 10-game suspension that Ryan Hartman got for sending Tim Stutzle’s face into the ice with his whole body weight in the last seconds of their game against Ottawa hasn’t helped, either. However, they’re already at 70 points and are eight points clear of sliding out of the postseason…for now. In the playoffs.

The Colorado Avalanche brought in Martin Necas via trade, and he has fit in quite nicely. Along with Jack Drury, Necas has come to Colorado to push their chances of another Cup. He already has five points in five games, including a SportsCenter Top 10 goal. However, the scoring drought of Casey Mittelstadt (two goals in his last 38 goals, 10 straight games without a goal) could make him expendable if the Avs can find a taker before the deadline. In the playoffs.

The L.A. Kings got Drew Doughty back on January 29, and the next night he played 27:43 of ice time against Tampa Bay. Their offense ranks last in scoring per game (2.18) since January 1, and the power play is a primary culprit, lighting the lamp only 9.1% over the time during that time frame. Even so, defense wins games. In the playoffs. 

The Calgary Flames shipped Andrei Kuzmenko and Jakob Pelletier to Philadelphia in exchange for Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost. Frost had been struggling with the Flyers and looks for a fresh beginning. Farabee focuses on the penalty kill, and anything that boosts the Calgary D is a bonus. In the playoffs.

The Vancouver Canucks finally solved their drama problem by shipping J.T. Miller east to the New York Rangers. Quinn Hughes is a Norris Trophy contender and could get some Hart Trophy nods as well. They also brought in defenseman Marcus Pettersson. How long will Thatcher Demko be absent in net? The Canucks won’t get back to their winning ways consistently without him. Also, Elias Pettersson, known to the fans as EP40, must figure out how to score. He has just 17 goals in 52 games so far, and the team needs more from him.

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Eastern Conference

The Washington Capitals are galvanized by Alex Ovechkin’s chase for the all-time goal record. However, their offense is much bigger than one skater, even a skater for the ages. Over their last 10 games, the Caps have gone 7-1-2, and part of their 2024-25 legacy, even if the Cup doesn’t come to D.C., should be a new record holder for goals scored. In the playoffs.

The Florida Panthers are rolling along, but they could use a big blueliner. Dmitry Kulikov has to play just about 20 minutes a night, which is too much of a workload. The fatigue of the long season is likely to wear him down, particularly once we get to the grind of the playoffs. The Panthers need to add another name to their defense to help get them a deep run. In the playoffs.

The Carolina Hurricanes made a seismic move when they added Mikko Rantanen. That made their offense legit again, and now they’re back in Cup contention. Before that, they had to rely too much on their defense. Rantanen has taken a bit to fit in, but he’s rehabbing an injury and had no idea the trade was even coming – this was the NHL’s version of the Luka-for-AD trade that rocked the NBA. In the playoffs.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in second in the Atlantic Division, but they could really use a third-line center who can find the back of the net in the playoffs. Once the postseason rolls around, opposing teams find ways to lock down the top two scoring lines, so having some scoring depth will help the Leafs finally make that deep run we’ve been hearing about since Mike Babcock took the reins. In the playoffs.

The Ottawa Senators are hanging around in fourth place in the Atlantic and would have the top wild card slot in the East if the season ended today. They do have some holes in the forward group and on the blue line, but they need to add scoring. Forward Josh Norris should return from injury soon after the 4 Nations Face-Off, but Nick Cousins’ knee surgery will keep him out until the end of March. Playing competitive hockey without those two contributors is a positive sign, though. In the playoffs.

The Tampa Bay Lightning still have a fired-up coach in Jon Cooper. His name is on the Cup twice already, and he’s been to another Cup Final. They could use one more player on the second scoring line to go along with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. Having that third contributor on that line would make the Lightning much more dangerous once they start running into better defenses in the postseason. In the playoffs.

The Columbus Blue Jackets are looking to get back to the Cup chase for the first time in five seasons. They should be buyers, but not for short-term rentals. This is a young team with a potentially long title window, so the additions they make should be in their prime but also come with team control for multiple seasons down the line. In the playoffs.

The Detroit Red Wings currently hold the last wild card in the East, although they’re just a point ahead of Columbus and Boston. Their biggest flaw right now is the penalty kill, which has only stopped 69.7% of man advantages on the season. Their biggest trade deadline priority should be someone to help lock down that defense. Their core is young, fast and talented, with none of their key contributors over the age of 24. The top players in that group have been Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, but Simon Edvinsson, Elmer Soderblom, Jonatan Berggren, and Marco Kasper have all been chipping in. In the playoffs.

The New Jersey Devils have started to take on some water. Over their last 10, they’re just 4-4-2. They lost captain Nico Hischier and top goalie Jacob Markstrom, and the Metropolitan Division, where they sit third, is extremely crowded. They need to find some ways to deal with adversity until they get those two contributors back. It’s hard to see them holding their own as some of other teams around them pick up steam. Out of the playoffs.

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What is the Best Super Bowl Bet? Moneyline, Point Spread or Point Total?

Before the Big Game begins, let’s see the Best Super Bowl bet, but what about those old-school bets? The moneyline, the point spread and the point total? Let’s turn some attention their way as you consider how to finalize your wagering strategy for Super Bowl LIX.

 

Understanding Betting Against the Spread – Pros and Cons

For Sunday’s showdown, the point spread opened at Kansas City -1.5 but has tightened to a single point. So what does this mean? If you take the Chiefs to cover this spread, they have to win by two or more points. If they win by one point, it’s a “push” – all bets refunded. If the Eagles win outright, you lose the bet.

Betting against the spread balances uneven sports matchups, providing better odds. This approach enables support for strong favorites without the high moneyline risk of straight betting. In mismatched college football games, spreads may reach 30s or 40s, showing large programs’ dominance over smaller schools.

 

The Risk of an Underdog

Betting against the spread also cuts into your potential risk. If you like the underdog, even if they don’t win the game outright, they can still cover the spread, which means that if you bet on them, you can still rake in the profits.

There are some cons, of course. The price for more balance in the odds is additional difficulty. You don’t just have to figure out which team will win – you have to figure out whether the favorite will win by enough – or if the underdog can stay within a particular point range. This takes a more complex form of analysis.

 

The Margin Error

Betting against the spread minimizes risk but increases margin for error. If you expect one team to dominate, betting on them to win outright is straightforward. However, betting on them to win by a certain margin can be precarious. A late field goal can result in a “backdoor cover,” where the underdog sneaks within the spread just before the game ends.

Point spreads can change after release, as seen with the Chiefs-Eagles line shifting half a point. Significant adjustments occurred before Super Bowl XIII. The two-week gap lets teams rest and injured players recover. Tracking injury reports is essential, as “questionable” players often participate if possible in crucial games.

This game features a tight point spread, so check the various bookmakers. If you think the Chiefs are going to win, take advantage of the value you can get in that direction. If there is a house that offers a positive money line for Kansas City, take it. A Chiefs win generates more profit for you, unless they win by only one point, in which case you lose nothing.

The point spread in Super Bowl LV can be adjusted to shift the point spread. The Chiefs’ defensive line was inefficient due to injuries and inconsistency. Philadelphia’s DC Vic Fangio has an elite pass rush, making it a wise pick to bet on the Eagles to win by 7-12 points. If Philadelphia can gain an early lead, let their pass rush run wild, and use Saquon Barkley to control the clock and increase yardage, this could be a wise pick.

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Best Super Bowl Bet: The Appeal of Moneyline Betting

Money lines have shifted for both teams as well, with both of them sitting at -110. That means that, no matter what team you choose, you have to bet $110 to win $100 and take home $210.

The benefit of this type of bet is its simplicity. You just pick the team you think will win. If you select the favorite, and it wins, the payout is low, but the risk is low. If you pick the underdog, and it wins, the payout is higher, taking advantage of line imbalances. You just need to choose the winning team.

When you’re dealing with a high point spread, then your money lines will reflect that. So if your team is favored to win by double digits, you might see a moneyline along the lines of -1500. That means you’d have to bet $1500 just to win $100 and take home $1600. With a lower point spread, though, the differential isn’t that wide.

In this matchup between Kansas City and Philadelphia, although the Chiefs are 1-point favorites, the money lines are even. The money line decision is a little simpler, but similar. If you choose against the line and the Chiefs win by one, you’ll only get a refund.

 

Take a look at the options available

  • Kansas City (-1) over Philadelphia
  • Philadelphia (+1) to cover against Kansas City
  • Kansas City (-110) to beat Philadelphia
  • Philadelphia (-110) to beat Kansas City

Super Bowl LIX’s popular bets include Philadelphia on the money line, per FOX Sports, despite the Chiefs being favored on the point spread. Many writers suggest that the Eagles possess a superior roster, but the game’s outcome will ultimately hinge on coaching and system effectiveness.

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Best Super Bowl Bet: Point Total Bets in the Super Bowl – How to Predict Game Scoring and Set Strategy

This bet revolves around whether the total game score will exceed a specific number, currently set at 48.5, down from 49.5. Wager on “over” if you expect a combined score of 49 or more points, or “under” if you anticipate a lower total. Game winner is irrelevant.

The last Super Bowl match between the Chiefs and Bills was two years ago, with the Chiefs winning 38-35 and scoring 73 points. This time, the Chiefs and Bills combined for 61 points in the AFC Championship. The Chiefs had not played in a game that went over 48.5 points since Week 12. They have done just enough to win, relying on defense to prevent the opposition from mounting too much of a threat and doing enough on offense for the result. They have come from behind seven times during the regular season and again against Buffalo in the AFC Championship.

 

Eagles’ Last Games

Philadelphia have been a strong team, generating numerous points in various games, including the NFC Championship, divisional round game against the Rams, and Week 17 win over Dallas without Jalen Hurts. Their explosive scoring, including 60+ yard rushing touchdowns by Saquon Barkley in 2024, and their deep threats of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, have contributed to their success.

The game could be a defensive struggle or a track meet, with both teams having elite pass rushes and quarterbacks exploiting opposing blitzes for big gains. Both teams have quality ball security, can lead long drives, and score on big plays. The choice depends on whether they can evade each other’s defenses and score four touchdowns apiece, or if one team will get an early lead and then start the race. The “over” is more likely, as defense becomes less relevant in the second half with offensive units like these.

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Super Bowl Game Odds: Chiefs vs Eagles Preview, Prediction & Analysis

Super Bowl Game Odds: We’re just a few days away from Super Bowl LIX, between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. Their showdown is a rematch of Super Bowl LVII, just two years ago, which the Chiefs won, 38-35.

The site of the game is Caesars Superdome in New Orleans as the Crescent City will host its 11th Super Bowl overall, its eighth in the Superdome, and its first since Super Bowl XLVII in 2013.

The first three Super Bowls in New Orleans were held at the old Tulane Stadium, which could seat 81,000 fans.

If that seems like a lot of seats for the home stadium of an AAC team, Tulane actually was part of the SEC until 1966 when they left due to their inability to field competitive football teams in conference play.

It’s impossible to imagine any school in the SEC voluntarily leaving today, due to the television revenue that, say, Vanderbilt gets in exchange for taking beatings from the likes of Alabama and Georgia each year (with 2024 being a bit of an exception).

The Chiefs actually won their first world championship at Tulane Stadium when they beat the Minnesota Vikings, 23-7, in Super Bowl IV, the last Super Bowl before the AFL-NFL merger.

The Vikings still haven’t won a world championship, but the Chiefs have a chance to make it three in a row if they can beat Philadelphia on Sunday.

You can catch the telecast on FOX or stream the game on Tubi. Read on to get the latest sports betting odds on the game as well as our predictions on the outcome.

 

NFL Betting: Super Bowl Game Odds

 

Details on the Game

As you can imagine, the entertainment world is descending on Super Bowl Sunday. Post Malone is the headliner for a tailgate party concert outside the Superdome with YouTube as the sponsor. Jon Batiste will sing the U.S. national anthem, and Lauren Daigle and Trombone Shorty will perform “America the Beautiful.”

“Lift Every Voice and Sing” will be performed by Ledisi. Kendrick Lamar, who was a co-headliner at the Super Bowl LVI halftime show three years ago, is the headliner for this year’s halftime show, with SZA as a guest performer.

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Super Bowl Game Odds for Kansas City

The Chiefs are favored to win by 1.5 points, and they come with a -120 moneyline. The point spread has not changed since the line opened, although the point total (48.5) has dropped from its opening (49.5).

 

So why should you take the Chiefs?

Jalen Hurts excelled in the NFC Championship against Washington and previously against Kansas City, but Philadelphia’s passing attack has struggled in 2024, ranking 14th in dropback success rate. They’ve masked these issues with Saquon Barkley’s elite performance and a strong shutdown defense.

The Chiefs have a tougher defense than Washington, with Kansas City DC Steve Spagnuolo bringing pressure through blitzes. Hurts’ day could be disrupted by the Chiefs’ pressure, as Spagnuolo has taken sacks against them on 13.2% of their blitzes. If the Chiefs can keep the Eagles at or behind the chains, they could outscore them.

 

Eagles’ Defense

The Philadelphia Eagles have the best defense in the NFL, but the Chiefs have a game-changing quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes struggled in Super Bowl LV against Tampa Bay due to a Buccaneers pass rush. The Chiefs’ offensive line has been teetering due to injuries and inconsistency this season.

Philadelphia’s Jalen Carter could dominate the game, potentially terrorizing Mahomes. Kansas City’s Trey Smith could handle Carter without assistance, allowing the Chiefs to send help to left guard Mike Caliendo. Eagles DC Vic Fangio hasn’t moved his linemen frequently, and Carter’s usual starting point is Smith. If they can manage Carter, Mahomes should have the time to cause problems in the pocket.

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Xavier Worthy

Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who grew up in the Chiefs’ hurry-up offense, has made significant strides. He had a 1.21 EPA per touch or target, surpassing any player in the AFC Championship who played in five plays. Worthy’s 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the combine led some observers to believe he would run deep patterns like Hill.

He has largely been utilized near the line of scrimmage, primarily with push passes, jet sweeps, or short passes. Most targets occur within ten yards, with an average reception of 3.9 yards, but he gains over 11 yards after the catch. Expect Reid to leverage this for offensive disruption.

 

I’m not a big believer in intangibles in the NFL

Players’ extensive experience in high-pressure situations helps them stay focused, despite occasional individual mistakes. Intangibles are crucial for managing college football wagers. Notably, quarterback Mahomes, after leading the Chiefs to victory over the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, confidently predicted a three-peat. Since joining the NFL in 2018, Mahomes has lost only three playoff games, showcasing his exceptional performance under pressure.

Mahomes has faced Tom Brady twice and Joe Burrow once in overtime losses. Throughout his career, he has achieved 25 fourth-quarter comebacks and 30 game-winning drives, including seven in the playoffs. Notably, he executed game-winning drives against San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV and LVIII, as well as against Philadelphia in Super Bowl LVII. In the 2024 regular season, he led seven game-winning drives, making it challenging to argue against betting on Mahomes this time.

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Super Bowl Game Odds for Philadelphia

The Eagles are 1.5-point underdogs, and they come with an EVEN moneyline (you bet $100 to win $100 and take home $200).

 

So why should you take the Eagles?

In the previous 58 Super Bowls, underdogs have triumphed 21 times and covered the spread 27 times. The Eagles could exploit the Chiefs’ O-line issues, particularly at left and right tackle. While Joe Thuney has performed well at left tackle, a strategic shift by the Eagles, moving Carter to the right and partnering him with Nolan Smith Jr., may enable effective blitzing against Mahomes. This tactic could limit Mahomes’ mobility. Meanwhile, the Chiefs plan to pressure Hurts with cornerback blitzes on critical downs.

 

Can Hurts get the pass to the receiver who’s left open and do some damage that way?

Philadelphia’s passing game struggled in their losses, particularly evident in 2024, where they had six games with quarterbacks posting a passer rating under 90.0, finishing 3-3 in those matchups. However, they triumphed in all other games. Jalen Hurts achieved a career-best passer rating of 103.7, averaging eight yards per attempt, ranking fourth in the league. Saquon Barkley’s performance helped create space as defenses focused on stopping the run, allowing Hurts to utilize his elite receivers, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown.

Despite Barkley’s struggles, Hurts achieved a 2-1 record, completing 73.5% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, and a 113.1 rating. Super Bowl threat Dallas Goedert, recovering from a knee injury, excels with yards after the catch.

The Eagles excel at forcing turnovers in the NFL, often influencing Super Bowl outcomes. They secured multiple turnovers against Washington in the NFC Championship. Kansas City’s Nikko Remigio, a rookie kick returner, has struggled with fumbles this season. The Super Bowl’s pressure might prove challenging for him as he seeks to perform.

 

Saquon Barkley

Don’t overlook Barkley. The Chiefs have yet to allow a tailback to gain 100 yards this season, but Barkley’s talent rivals that of Derrick Henry. Despite James Cook’s success against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, if the Eagles maintain momentum and run effectively against Kansas City, it could control the clock and limit Patrick Mahomes’ time on the field. Notably, opponents have frequently stacked the box against Barkley, yet he still averages 4.5 yards per carry.

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Super Bowl Game Odds & Winning Pick

The Eagles might start strong against the Chiefs, replicating their Super Bowl LII strategy. They succeeded with the Philly Special to score and maintain momentum, leaving the Patriots helpless. One could contend that this current Eagles team’s skill positions surpass those of the past.

Kansas City has shown remarkable resilience throughout the season, consistently grinding out wins regardless of the opponent or location. Their only loss came against the Bills in Buffalo, but they rebounded in the AFC Championship, eliminating Josh Allen’s team. With a strong, opportunistic defense and Mahomes’ ability to dismantle defenses through both passing and rushing, the Chiefs remain formidable. The game’s pace is uncertain, making it risky to bet heavily on the point total. Ultimately, it seems that the last team with possession will secure victory, and the Chiefs will likely continue their trend of being that team.

I predict a final score of Kansas City 30, Philadelphia 27.

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March Madness Betting Predictions: Teams to Reach the Big Dance, Elite 8 Handicaps & Expert Analysis

Let’s take a closer look at the March Madness betting predictions, likely field and talk about teams we expect to see in the Elite 8 as well as how to identify Cinderella teams before they knock your picks out of the bracket.

 

March Madness Betting Predictions, Analysis & Handicaps

 

Who Will Make the Big Dance?

The NCAA men’s basketball tournament invites 68 teams

Thirty-two of them get an automatic bid after winning their conference tournament. The other 36 receive at-large bids from the selection committee, which also seeds them. The bracket consists of four regions, each with 16 teams, for a total of 64.

However, there are four games that take place before the first round – called the First Four. The lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the four lowest-seeded at-large teams square off – the lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers play for 16-seed positions in the bracket, and the at-large teams play for 11-seed positions.

Teams that do not win their conference tournament but who are in the AP Top 25 or NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) will generally get an at-large spot. Sometimes the committee overlooks those metrics, though, such as in 2004, when Utah State went 25-2 in the regular season but lost in their conference tournament and didn’t make the Big Dance despite being in the Top 25.

The NET ranking system includes game results, strength of schedule, location of key games, scoring margin, net defensive and offensive efficiency, and quality of wins and losses. To determine the quality, the NCAA uses a “quadrant” system, in which opponents are listed as Quad 1-4 depending on the location of the game and their NET ranking at the time when they play.

 

The field of “bracketology”

This topic was popularized by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi – has emerged to project, on a week-by-week basis, which teams will get into the field of 68. As of this writing, he has 16 teams “on the bubble” – which means their chances of getting in are precarious. Right now, his last eight teams to make it are: Utah State, Ohio State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, San Diego State, BYU, Pitt, and Nebraska.

 

His “First Four Out”

Traditionally, the teams that don’t make the Big Dance but do get the four 1-seeds in the NIT – would be UCF, Xavier, Arizona State, and USC. His “Next Four Out” – teams that would typically get high seeds in the NIT – include Wake Forest, SMU, North Carolina, and Arkansas. Obviously, according to March Madness betting predictions, these teams could move up and down depending on how they play in the last three to four weeks of conference action as well as in their respective conference tournaments.

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Elite 8 Showdowns: Handicapping the Most Intense Matchups

 

We don’t have the brackets yet, of course, and we won’t have them until Selection Sunday

Yes, the bracket is split into geographical regions, but it’s been decades since teams were actually all assigned to the geographical region in which they play. If three teams from the East Coast all earn 1-seeds, you’ll see them all over the country.

From Joe Lunardi’s projected brackets, though, one intriguing possible matchup from the South would involve 2-seed Houston and 1-seed Auburn. The Cougars (17-4) had a 33-game home winning streak snapped last week by Texas Tech. At the time, no other Division I team had a longer active home winning streak. We’ll see how they respond when Oklahoma State visits on Tuesday. Houston has length on the perimeter and quality rebounding inside. When their outside shooting is on, they’re just about impossible to beat.

The Tigers (20-1) are the top-ranked team in the nation and would hold the top overall seed in the bracket if things hold. They have currently won 13 in a row. Since Bruce Pearl came down from Tennessee in 2014-15, Auburn has pulled off five winning streaks of at least 12 games; right now, they have a 13-game winning streak going, heading into Tuesday night’s home date with the Oklahoma Sooners. If seeding holds and Houston takes on Auburn, Houston’s defense will be tasked with slowing down Auburn’s high-flying offensive attack.

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In the West region, I think projected 1-seed Tennessee is a little shaky

Yes, they held Florida to just 44 points despite missing two starters, but I think a team that slows the game down like 4-seed Wisconsin will punch their ticket home in the Sweet 16. On the other side of the bracket, Iowa State has a reputation for getting a high seed and then falling off the table in the Big Dance. 7-seed UConn is lurking on that side of the West – so how would an Elite 8 game between this two look?

The Badgers (17-5) are 4-0 this season when John Tonje scores at least 25 points. The Wisconsin guard has been filling up the basket lately, and his team has been cruising as a result. The Huskies (16-6) were really starting to list, but then they won at Marquette. The Huskies have made a reputation the last two seasons for turning things up once the calendar hits March. To get to the Elite 8 (and beyond), the Huskies would definitely be approaching Cinderella status, but this is a team that knows what it takes to win as an underdog on this stage.

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In the Midwest region, can 1-seed Alabama get by Saint Mary’s?

Um, yes. The Gaels have all kinds of talent, for a West Coast Conference team, but Nate Oats’ offense should be able to take charge of this game in the first half. Whether the Tide can get by 4-seed Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 is a tougher question, but I still think Alabama can hold off a Red Raider team that can get crazy hot shooting out of its backcourt.

A matchup between 1-seed Alabama and 2-seed Purdue in the Elite 8 would be something to see, though. The Crimson Tide (19-3) have a 32-game winning streak going when they are up by at least 10 at the intermission, a streak that dates back to March 10, 2022, when they shockingly lost to Vanderbilt. Purdue has a reputation for being an inside-first team on offense, playing at a more pedestrian pace, which should keep things closer than a more track-meet approach. The Boilermakers (17-5) are taking care of business in the Big Ten, but it’s hard to see Purdue matching Alabama’s scoring firepower in this potential showdown.

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March Madness Betting Predictions & Upsets: Spotting Cinderellas

We published a full-length article about “Cinderella” teams last week – the ones who either snagged an automatic qualifier bid to the Big Dance because they won one of the smaller conference tournaments, or bigger schools who got at-large bids but are still fairly low seeds and then go on a run. Last year, the big Cinderella was the N.C. State Wolfpack, who came out of nowhere to win the ACC Tournament and snagged an 11-seed.

Despite their 17-14 final record for the regular season, they rolled all the way to the Elite Eight, with 2-seed Marquette as their most notable victim. Cinderella teams just about always see their dreams end before the end of the tournament – although 8-seed Villanova won the whole thing back in 1985, so you just never know. One of the more recent Cinderella stories was Loyola-Chicago. The Rambles entered the tournament as an 11-seed in 2018 and made it all the way to the Final Four, just two wins short of their first national championship since 1963.

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So how can you spot a Cinderella?

There are some metrics that make it easier than you might think. You don’t want to just take every underdog in the bracket – as the rounds go by, you’ll see your winnings decreasing as teams regress toward their normal performances. One metric that you can use is elite offensive efficiency, a number that KenPom developed. If you are looking at an underdog that ranked in the top 50 in the nation in offensive efficiency, their chances of making the Sweet 16 is pretty favorable even if their seeding is low.

That 2018 Loyola-Chicago team fit the profile. So did another 11-seed in that same 2018 bracket that also made the Final Four – the Syracuse Orange. Cornell entered the 2010 tournament as a 12-seed and got to the Sweet 16. It doesn’t guarantee a deep run, but that number has a great chance of getting your underdog to the second weekend of the tournament.

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Another useful metric is turnover margin

If you can take the ball away from your opponent, you get free extra chances at the basket. In 2011, VCU went to the Final Four after entering asn an 11-seed, and they had a 5.0 turnover percentage differential between takeaways and giveaways. In 2005, Wisconsin-Milwaukee made it to the Sweet 16 as a 12-seed, and they took the ball away on a whopping 24.5% of opponent possessions. That number ranked 32nd in the nation.

They stopped Alabama and BC in the first two rounds of the tournament, prying the ball away 41 times combined while only coughing it up 23 times. They ran a full-court pressure scheme that frustrated teams and helped them get to the third round.

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Take a closer look at the team’s roster as well

Teams that have more experience at key positions tend to go further. It’s true that blue-chip recruits tend to last a season or two at the college level before trying their hand at the NBA, but teams that keep their players three or four years can sneak up on “one-and-done” programs.

Obviously, Kentucky’s 2012 team and UCLA’s 2015 team showed that programs with young, elite first- and second-year talent can win titles, but we’re talking about looking for Cinderellas to make runs that are deeper than expected. Both Cornell (2010) and Richmond (2011) made it a couple of rounds further than the sports betting world expected, and the top three scorers on each of those teams were seniors. It’s hard to find teams with three starters that are seniors these days, but this is a factor that still plays a role.

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Betting Super Bowl: Favorites vs. Underdogs?

Ready for Super Bowl Betting? The Kansas City Chiefs have a shot at NFL history as they enter Super Bowl LIX with the chance to become the first team to win three straight Lombardi Trophies.

They were actually the underdogs going into Super Bowl LVII (+2) and Super Bowl LVIII (+1), but they finally go in as the favorites this time (-1.5). In 58 Super Bowls, the favorites have ended up losing 21 times straight up.

The favorite has only covered the spread 29 times in 58 Super Bowls. In the other 29, two ended up in a push, while the underdogs covered against the spread 27 times.

Some of this has to do with the fact that sports betting lines tend to be quite small in the Super Bowl. After all, the NFL is all about parity – draft order favors teams who don’t succeed in the regular season.

The schedules that teams play are based on how they finished in their divisions the prior season, so if you win your division, you end up playing three division champions the next year, two from your conference and one from the other conference.

 

Super Bowl Betting: Favorites and Underdogs

 

The team that came in last in your division?

They get to see three last-place teams from those same divisions. That comparative difference in schedule difficulty is designed to help teams gain better equity in terms of outcomes. Sometimes, though, you have some mammoth point spreads.

 

Super Bowl III

If you look back, the New York Jets entered as 18-point underdogs. Jets quarterback Joe Namath famously guaranteed that his team would win outright, and win they did, even though the Colts had nailed down the NFL Championship with an emphatic 34-0 win.

They scored the first 16 points of the game and held on for a 16-7 win over the then-Baltimore Colts. “Broadway Joe” rode that prediction all the way to the Hall of Fame and a career in show business, sports broadcasting and other endorsement opportunities.

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Super Bowl XXXVI

Here, the New England Patriots entered as 14-point underdogs against the then-St. Louis Rams. Kurt Warner led the offense known as the “Greatest Show on Turf,” and the Rams were looking at their second title in three seasons.

At the time, Tom Brady had only started 16 games in his career. However, the Pats built a 17-3 lead going into the fourth quarter, before the Rams woke up and scored a pair of touchdowns, tying the game with a minute and a half left in regulation.

Brady led the game-winning drive, and the Pats kicked the field goal to win, 20-17, as the clock hit zeroes.

Let’s talk about the different factors associated with taking favorites and underdogs – and which is the better choice for Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.

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Super Bowl Betting on the Favorite: Pros and Cons

The “favorite” is the team that is expected to win, such as KC -1.5 in the Super Bowl. On the money line, they have negative numbers, e.g., KC -120. The more negative, the greater the expectation of victory. To win betting on the Chiefs, they must win by at least two points. Betting on the money line, you risk $120 to win $100 and take home $220.

 

Decimal or Fractional Odds

Outside the United States, odds may be represented in decimals or fractions. In decimal odds, favorites are below 2.0, with smaller values indicating stronger favorites. In fractional odds, a value under 1, like ⅝, suggests a team’s high winning expectation.

 

Key Factors to Consider

Bookmakers determine favorites and underdogs by assessing team form, recent results, injuries, player availability, and weather conditions. Historical performance between teams is also crucial. In Super Bowl LVII, Kansas City defeated Philadelphia by three points. Despite the Eagles hiring two new coordinators since then, many key players for both teams remain unchanged, influencing betting odds and expectations for their upcoming matchup.

 

Opening Odds

After their release, bookmakers adjust point spreads and moneylines based on betting action to ensure profits and align with public sentiment. For high-stakes games, like the Super Bowl, this can significantly sway lines. Currently, the line indicates a strong belief in the Chiefs’ chances of winning, especially given their tendency for late scoring drives, which has become a hallmark of their performance this season.

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So what is the biggest “pro” when it comes to betting on favorites?

You have a greater likelihood of winning. However, the biggest “con” is that the favorite is expected to win, and so your payout is going to be smaller as a result. If you only bet on favorites, you’re not going to make money over time as a sports bettor.

Why? The best teams often lose when expected to win, and overconfidence can contribute to this. Heavy favorites may not take their opponents seriously or maintain focus. Injuries before and during the game can also impact outcomes. Weather conditions, such as hot and humid conditions or cold and snowy conditions, can also influence outcomes.

Also, Washington’s victory over Chicago in the season’s game was a result of a lack of attention by the Bears’ secondary and a lucky bounce and catch by the Commanders, who turned a loss into a win. This illustrates the power of one miraculous play.

It’s also possible to fall prey to errors in judging odds value. Let’s say a team has a -1000 moneyline to win. You put down a $100 on what is a sure thing. You’re only going to take $110 home. If your team gets upset, then you’re down $100. That risk-to-reward ratio doesn’t make that bet on the favorite worthwhile over time.

 

So how can you bet on favorites and make money over time?

Combining multiple bets into one parlay wager can increase payouts by including favorites. This makes it safer than adding an underdog. For instance, if you believe Saquon Barkley will exceed the total in rushing yards, adding Kansas City to win and cover (the favorite choice) increases the payout for both teams, making the value of taking the Chiefs higher.

You can also hedge your bets. Let’s say you take the Chiefs, but then the Eagles get a touchdown on their first drive and then swipe a pick-six to go up 14-0. Yes, the Chiefs could still come back and win, but you might want to place a smaller live betting odds on the Eagles to cover possible losses.

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Super Bowl Betting Underdog: How to Spot Value and Capitalize on the Underdog

Losing more underdog bets than winning can still yield profits due to higher payouts from plus point spreads or moneylines. In closely contested games like Super Bowl LIX, if you believe the Eagles will cover, it’s beneficial to also bet on them to win outright, given the minimal point spread difference.

To determine when to bet on the underdog, seek value—where the underdog has better winning chances than implied by the odds. For instance, in the Eagles vs. Chiefs matchup, despite Kansas City’s strong late-game performance, the game’s result may hinge on which team controls the final moments.

Both teams boast powerful offenses that could exploit defensive weaknesses over time, despite their top-tier status. Factors like defensive fatigue and rules favoring offense suggest a high-scoring game. Therefore, betting on the Eagles in this seemingly balanced scenario offers more value, making it a sensible choice.

Analyzing your matchup is crucial, as it involves assessing both teams’ strengths and weaknesses. Consider factors like recent form, player availability, and key injuries. Although some sports favor upsets, historical data shows that in 27 of the last 58 Super Bowls, underdogs have beaten the spread, and 21 have won outright, highlighting the underdog’s strong potential.

 

Does your underdog have momentum?

That’s an important consideration. Last year, the Eagles cratered into the playoffs, turning a 10-1 start into an 11-6 finish before imploding in an embarrassing playoff debacle in Tampa Bay. Since their 2-2 start to the season, the Eagles have only lost once – a game in which they lost their starting quarterback and still managed 33 points on the day. Since then, they have won five straight. The Chiefs, of course, also have momentum, but it’s not like the Eagles are listing at this point.

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Psychological Factors in Betting

It’s important to consider at this point just why you’re betting on the Super Bowl. Are you putting down $50 on a fun bet? Then put it down and enjoy the game. If you’re a serious bettor trying to make money this way, though, then you want to remember that emotions can keep you from profiting.

Emotions can significantly harm your finances, particularly in live betting. For instance, if you bet $100 on the Chiefs to score first, but the Eagles score a quick touchdown, you lose that $100 instantly. Frustrated, you might feel inclined to bet another $100 on Isaiah Pacheco scoring on the next drive, neglecting the fact that the Chiefs usually prefer passing in expected running scenarios. This emotional impulse can lead to further losses.

Embrace excitement about the Super Bowl but avoid emotional investment in betting for money. Be smart with your choices and avoid sending more good money after bad through your wagering app. Hand your smartphone to a friend when upset about a prop outcome to prevent further negative outcomes.

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Props Betting Super Bowl: NFL Expert Betting Analysis about the Halftime Show

Each year, we have the best Super Bowl Betting Props, so the halftime show at the Super Bowl is considered the biggest entertainment stage in the world.

After all, the Super Bowl is the most watched sporting event in the world, so that’s an immense audience for the halftime performer.

At Super Bowl LIX, Kendrick Lamar will headline the halftime show, and SZA will be the special guest.

Caesars Superdome in New Orleans will have over 80,000 fans alone, and based on last year’s Nielsen numbers, approximately 100 million more people will watch the performance on television.

Lamar also appeared at the halftime show for Super Bowl LVI, making a cameo along with Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem and Dr. Dre.

The halftime show should start between 8:00 and 8:30 pm Eastern time, depending on the flow of the game, and the performance should last between 12 and 15 minutes.

You can include props about the halftime show in your online betting, so dig in to find out how to maximize your winnings.

 

Super Bowl Betting Props: All About the Halftime Show

 

Top past performances

Most of the first decade’s worth of Super Bowls – an era that began in 1967 – simply featured a college marching band. Starting with Super Bowl III, each halftime show had a theme (a tradition that would last through Super Bowl XXXI. Television was not nearly the vehicle for sports broadcasting then that it would later become in the 1990s and beyond. Moving in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the halftime show would have more variety, such as drill teams and other ensembles. In the 1990s, we first started to see popular music acts as the networks showing the Super Bowl started to fight back against efforts from other networks to draw viewers away during the halftime.

 

Super Bowl XLVII

Here, one of the most memorable halftime shows involved Beyoncé. She came out of a cloud of smoke and reunited with her bandmates from Destiny’s Child, taking over the stage with both her old and new hits. She would return a few years later with Bruno Mars and Coldplay, but when she had the stage to herself, the performances of “Crazy in Love,” “Independent Women,” and – most of all – “Halo” remain iconic YouTube sensations.

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Super Bowl LVI

It was Lamar’s first halftime show appearance, and for people who grew up in the 1990s, this is probably still their favorite show. The most memed performance from that show was Fifty Cent hanging upside down while performing “In Da Club,” but Eminem’s performance – that included a kneed at the end, which may have been designed to irritate the powers that be in the NFL – and Blige’s masterful singing really set the tone for a wonderful show. Dr. Dre’s piano solo in the later part of the show also remains as one of the top performances at a Super Bowl.

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Super Bowl XXXVIII

This one still has a reputation for the most notorious halftime show as Justin Timberlake accidentally exposed Janet Jackson’s breast in what was referred to as a “wardrobe malfunction.” Three years later, though, as the NFL was still seeking to resurrect its image, they brought in Prince at Super Bowl XLI. Given his widespread popularity across all of American culture, he was a natural choice. He came in to “We Will Rock You,” followed it up with “Let’s Go Crazy” and then took the audience through his top hits, such as “1999,” before covering songs like “Proud Mary.” He finished his show, of course, with “Purple Rain.”

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After 9/11

The first Super Bowl after the attacks in New York City was XXXVI, and the league brought in the world’s biggest rock act at the time – U2. During the show, the band ran the names of all the lives lost on a screen. They only played three songs – “Beautiful Day,” “MLK” and “Where the Streets Have No Name,” but their show was a major statement of unity around the world, punctuated by lead singer Bono – an Irishman – showing a U.S. flag on his jacket’s lining.

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Super Bowl LVII

Two years ago, featured Rihanna putting on her first solo live performance in five years. Some of the show took place on a flying stage, and her songs included such hits as “Only Girl (In the World)” and “Where Have You Been.” She also sang individual versions of such collabs as “Run This Town.”

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Can I bet on the Super Bowl halftime show?

Remember – the Super Bowl is the most watched sporting event in the world. So you can imagine that there are sportsbooks out there that will take action on just about any prop you can come up with.

If there’s a question you can think of about the halftime show, there’s probably a prop about it. What will Kendrick Lamar wear? What will he sing first? Which songs will show up on his set list? What guest performers will pop up on stage? How many songs will he sing? How long will his performance last? The answers to all of those questions are available on sportsbooks as props for you to consider. The same is true for Jon Batiste’s national anthem performance – and even the coin toss at the start of the game.

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What are the top props and winning picks?

 

How many songs will there be? (O/U 10.5, Under -122)

If we go back the last five years, halftime shows have been as short as nine songs (2021) and as long as 15 songs (2020). Last year’s performance lasted 10 songs. This means that U2’s three-song performance in the wake of 9/11 was a definite outlier. Given that we already know that SZA will show up as a special guest – and that other special guests are possible – keeping this prop under makes sense. Given the early odds on the “under,” it looks like a lot of action has already headed that way.

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What other special guests will show up on stage?

Here is a list of some of the top possibilities with the latest available odds:

  • Future (+125)
  • Metro Boomin (+125)
  • Baby Keem (+170)
  • Lil Wayne (+185)
  • Jay Rock (+205)
  • Doechii (+210)
  • Travis Scott (+250)
  • Eminem (+750)
  • Taylor Swift (+750)
  • Drake (+3500)

Research on this type of betting is limited compared to betting on the outcome of the game or individual performance. It relies more on luck than preparation, so consider how much to bet. The last three options are interesting – will the NFL allow Eminem to return after he took a knee last time?

Taylor Swift’s presence at the game is expected, given her relationship with Travis Kelce. She has collaborated with Lamar in the past, making her an intriguing choice. In contrast, Drake’s rivalry with Lamar adds surprise potential, while Lil Wayne, a New Orleans native, has had prior issues with him.

Although it appears patched, tension lingers, particularly with Lil Wayne’s disappointment over not landing the main role. Travis Scott, linked to Kendrick Lamar through previous collaborations, is a compelling choice that reflects their strong relationship.

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What song will Lamar play first?

  • Humble (+170)
  • Not Like Us (+380)
  • King Kunta (+430)
  • Squabble Up (+430)
  • DNA (+500)
  • ADHD (+500)
  • Euphoria (+600)
  • N95 (+600)
  • Swimming Pools (+750)
  • Like That (+750)
  • United in Grief (+750)
  • Luther (+750)
  • Gloria (+750)
  • TV Off (+750)
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“Humble” serves as Lamar’s biggest song and a solid opener, bringing big energy to the show. It’s a strategic choice, allowing a solo performance before SZA joins. Additionally, “Swimming Pools” is anticipated for its high energy and greater overall value.

 

What song will Lamar play last?

  • All the Stars (+210)
  • Not Like Us (+550)
  • Euphoria (+800)
  • N95 (+900)
  • United in Grief (+1000)
  • Swimming Pools / Drank (+1100)
  • DNA (+2600)

Lamar’s top songs rank high on odds lists, suggesting he may want to open or close with hits. Consider whether he seeks a strong start or finish, influencing song selection. A favored option could be a collaboration with SZA to conclude the show, creating an emotional vibe and allowing for a powerful finale together.

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Super Bowl Betting: Will the Kansas City Chiefs Win the Super Bowl LIX?

Ready for Super Bowl Betting? In their earliest days, the Kansas City Chiefs were a football dynasty. They were one of the charter members of the American Football League and started their existence as the Dallas Texans.

Their first season, 1960, was also the initial campaign for another storied team in the same city – the Dallas Cowboys. The teams shared the original Cotton Bowl for games, and the Texans won the AFL title in 1962.

They relocated to Kansas City in 1963, winning league titles in 1966 and 1969, advancing to Super Bowl I against the Packers and Super Bowl IV against the Vikings.

That second win really paved the way for a full merger between the NFL and the AFL.

After 1969, the Chiefs faced a 50-year title drought. The hiring of Andy Reid and drafting Patrick Mahomes revitalized the team, creating a new dynasty.

They have gone to seven straight AFC Championships and six of the last seven Super Bowls, including next month’s Super Bowl LIX, where they will take on the Philadelphia Eagles for the second time in the last three years. Will they win?

Read on to get our sports betting perspective on the Chiefs’ chances of becoming the first team ever to win three Super Bowls in a row.

 

Super Bowl Betting: Will the Kansas City Chiefs Win the Super Bowl 59?

 

Why Will the Chiefs Win?

Andy Reid makes his sixth Super Bowl appearance, tying with Don Shula for second-most, behind Bill Belichick’s nine. Patrick Mahomes will also tie John Elway with five Super Bowl starts, second only to Tom Brady. The Chiefs’ defense has been pivotal this season, allowing just 19.2 points per game, ranking fourth in the league. Their pass rush has excelled in the playoffs, recording 10 sacks in victories over Houston and Buffalo in the divisional and conference championships.

 

Philadelphia

Eagles’ passing game hasn’t been all that prolific this season. Some of this has to do with a conservative philosophy on offense – the Eagles have an elite tailback in Saquon Barkley who has scored on long runs (60+ yards) at an historic rate this season. Ball security has been a plus for the Eagles as well. Jalen Hurts, who was turnover-prone last year (and at the start of this year) has only committed three turnovers since the Eagles’ Week 5 bye. However, their offense can be predictable, and with top-shelf wide receivers like DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, this attack should be more dynamic.

 

Kansas City

The Chiefs excel in passing, ranking second for pass rate over expectation, and generating significant yards after the catch (YAC). They average 0.16 EPA more on dropback plays compared to designed carries. An impressive 58% of their receiving yards come after the catch, the highest in the league. Rookie Xavier Worthy is a standout with 439 YAC this season, following in the footsteps of former stars Tyreek Hill and Rashee Rice. He led all players with 85 receiving yards in the AFC Championship and had seven targets, showcasing his growth in the latter half of the regular season and playoffs, remaining difficult to contain.

Winning three consecutive titles would be unprecedented in the Super Bowl era, but the NFL has seen it before. The Green Bay Packers achieved this feat twice: first from 1929 to 1931 when there were no playoffs and again from 1965 to 1967, encompassing the last NFL Championship and Super Bowls I and II.

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Saquon Barkley

Barkley is expected to excel against Kansas City, having dominated other teams this season. In the NFC Championship against Washington, he scored a 60-yard touchdown on the Eagles’ first play, establishing a strong tone for Philadelphia’s victory.

On the day, he finished with 118 total rushing yards and three scores. During the regular season, he ran for 2,005 yards, the eighth-highest total in league history, and in three playoff games, he has run for 442 more yards. However, Washington ranked 28th in the NFL in yards permitted per rush (4.8).

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Against Los Angeles

The Rams allowed Barkley to accumulate 205 yards and finished the regular season tied for 23rd in yards allowed per carry (4.6). The Chiefs tied for fourth (4.1). The Chiefs will make it more difficult for Barkley moving forward compared to the Rams or Commanders.

Kansas City went into the AFC Championship riding an eight-game turnover-free streak. Mahomes did have a key fumble, but the Chiefs were able to overcome it. Overall, the Chiefs should represent a much stronger test for Barkley and the whole team than the Rams or Commanders did.

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Super Bowl Betting Winning Bets: Straight, Parlay, Teaser, and other Options

Let’s start with the basics. The Chiefs are currently 1.5-point favorites to win, a line that has not changed since the opening. On the money line, they offer -125 (you bet $125 to win $100 and take home $225). The point total is 48.5, a point down from where it opened.

 

Taking the Chiefs to win and cover isn’t a bad choice here

Patrick Mahomes has achieved remarkable success in leading game-winning drives, with 19 fourth-quarter comebacks and 23 game-winning drives in the regular season. Notably, during the 2024 season, he led seven game-winning drives, starting with a 26-25 victory over Cincinnati in Week 2 and concluding with a 19-17 win against the Chargers in Week 14. In the playoffs, Mahomes boasts six fourth-quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives, including crucial moments in Super Bowls LVII and LVIII, as well as an AFC Championship victory over Buffalo. His consistency promises to deliver results again.

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The point total is a different story

The Chiefs and Eagles exhibit grinding defensive styles and methodical offensive strategies. While the Chiefs occasionally throw in expected run situations, they primarily rely on short- and medium-range passes, gaining yards after the catch. Neither team executes rapid drives. Both possess strong pass rushes that can disrupt opponents. Given these factors, a conservative approach to point totals is advised, leading to a preference for betting the under.

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Looking for a solid parlay pick?

Consider this bet: Chiefs to win (ML), Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns, and Travis Kelce 6+ receptions (+233). Mahomes often relies on Kelce in crucial situations, particularly on third downs and in the red zone. While Xavier Worthy is emerging, Kelce’s ability to exploit zone defenses keeps him in Mahomes’ sights. The Chiefs prefer Mahomes’ improvisation over a ground game, especially near the end zone, with solid support from tailbacks like Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.

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How about a teaser?

I feel confident about the current point spread, so I don’t plan to alter my payout. If you believe the Chiefs will win by three, you could adjust it to KC -2.5, but it risks a two-point win due to strategic decisions affecting the score. I’m unsure about this game’s money line; it could resemble a high-scoring affair like Buffalo-Kansas City, or it may lean towards a defensive battle initially. Due to this uncertainty, I don’t have a clear direction for the point total. There are better betting opportunities elsewhere, so I recommend leaving the teasers alone for the time being.

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Super Bowl Betting Top Props for the Chiefs

 

Patrick Mahomes, UNDER 0.5 interceptions (-128)

A single tipped ball could jeopardize your wager, but the Chiefs have only one turnover in their last seven games, a fumble by Mahomes. His ball security has improved this season, aided by an effective O-line that allows him time to make smart decisions, avoiding sacks and risky throws.

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Kareem Hunt, UNDER 1.5 receptions (-180)

When Hunt enters the game, it’s usually time to run the ball. He has been receptive to the ball in the past, but this time his approach has not been that. He averaged 1.77 receptions per game in the regular season, but has just two receptions in two playoff games.

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Anytime TD Kareem Hunt (+135)

While he isn’t likely to catch a lot of passes, he has scored touchdowns in four straight games. When the Chiefs hand the ball off in the red zone, he’s usually the recipient.

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Isaiah Pacheco OVER 5.5 rushing attempts (-145)

During the regular season, Pacheco averaged 11.9 carries per game. In the playoffs, he has dropped to 5.0, as the Chiefs have opted for a more aerial approach. Their strategy could be more conservative against the Eagles defense, increasing carries for Pacheco.

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Super Bowl Bets: Will the Philadelphia Eagles Win the Super Bowl LIX?

The Philadelphia Eagles, established in 1933, are among the oldest NFL teams, replacing the bankrupt Frankford Yellow Jackets.

The Eagles share intense rivalries with the New York Giants, Washington Commanders, and Dallas Cowboys, all members of their NFL division.

The Eagles have made the playoffs 31 times and won their division 16 times (including 13 NFC East titles). They won three NFL Championships before the NFL-AFL merger (1948, 1949 and 1960).

The 1960 victory was the sole occurrence of an NFL team defeating Vince Lombardi’s Packers in a title game. Afterward, they faced a lengthy drought, losing Super Bowl XV.

Since 2001, they have won 11 NFC East titles and reached four Super Bowls, but only managed one championship in Super Bowl LII, with Nick Foles leading Philadelphia to victory.

The Eagles appeared in Super Bowl LVII only to watch the Kansas City Chiefs lead yet another late scoring drive and swipe the victory out of their hands.

Will the Eagles secure their second Super Bowl title in three years? Explore sports betting insights on Philadelphia’s matchup.

 

Super Bowl Betting: Will the Philadelphia Eagles Win the Super Bowl 59?

 

Why Will the Eagles Win?

After a disappointing finish in Super Bowl LVII, head coach Nick Sirianni guided the Eagles to a promising 10-1 start in 2023. However, the team’s performance declined sharply, with Jalen Hurts struggling to connect with the offense and defensive strategies failing, leading to an 11-6 finish.

The anticipated division title went to Dallas, and the Eagles lost to Tampa Bay in the wild-card playoff round. Entering 2024, the Eagles faced challenges, starting 2-2. Yet, adjustments by Sirianni propelled a turnaround, resulting in 12 wins out of 13 games to clinch the division. Saquon Barkley excelled, amassing 2,005 rushing yards and contributing significantly in the playoffs.

Philadelphia boast a fierce pass rush, which has troubled the retooled Kansas City O-line, impacted by injuries and inconsistency. Patrick Mahomes faced a career-high 36 sacks during the regular season, plus five in two playoff games. The Chiefs rotated through four starting left tackles, eventually settling on Joe Thuney, resulting in Mahomes’ season QBR of 67.6, his second lowest.

 

Saquon Barkley

The Eagles boast the best running game and defense, highlighted by Barkley’s 60-yard touchdown in the NFC Championship, totaling 118 yards and three touchdowns. Their dominant O-line excels at controlling the game, leading to a top time of possession (32:22). The defense excels in ball-hawking, showcasing impressive physicality on both sides of the ball.

 

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith

The Eagles’ passing game lacks dynamism despite having Brown and Smith. Brown recorded 1,067 receiving yards, a modest total considering the 17-game season and favorable defensive rules. Missing four games due to injury and the team’s run-first strategy contributed to this figure. However, Brown achieved an impressive 3.3 yards per route run, ranking fourth among NFL receivers since 2007 with at least 200 routes.

ESPN’s scoring for wide receivers rated him a 99, reflecting his separation, catchability, and yards after the catch. Since 2017, no player has surpassed this score. He may excel in the Super Bowl, but the Chiefs’ defense aims to redirect passes to running backs and tight ends.

We hear a lot about Travis Kelce, the Kansas City tight end, but don’t sleep on Dallas Goedert. The Eagles’ tight end missed four weeks with a knee injury, but in the NFC Championship win over Washington, he led the Philadelphia offense in catches (7) and tied A.J. Brown with eight targets. He also had 85 receiving yards. No team gave up more receiving yards per game to tight ends than the Chiefs did.

 

The Comparison

Comparing the current Eagles team to the 2022 squad that narrowly lost to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII, the 2022 team showcased better running efficiency with Miles Sanders, averaging 5.9 yards per play versus 5.6 this year. The rushing offense improved to 4.9 yards per carry compared to 4.6 previously. Both teams had strong defenses, but this season, the Eagles excelled against the run. To defeat Philadelphia, the Chiefs will need to focus on their aerial attack while handling the Eagles’ pass rush.

 

Jalen Hurts

Some argue Hurts isn’t as skilled as Patrick Mahomes, but he doesn’t need to be. In the NFC Championship, Hurts showed accuracy under pressure. His offense demands less from him now compared to 2022, with Sanders outperforming Barkley in efficiency, yet Barkley remains more explosive than Sanders ever was.

The Philadelphia O-line has to give Hurts time in the pocket, though. Under pressure, Hurts was just 19th in the NFL in success rate when pressured and 14th in EPA (expected points added) per dropback. In similar situations, Mahomes ranked second and fourth, respectively.

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Super Bowl Betting Winning Bets – Straight, Parlay, Teaser, and other Options

The Eagles come in as 1.5-point underdogs. If you think that their pass rush can overwhelm the Kansas City offense like Tampa Bay did in Super Bowl LV, then this point spread is a no-brainer. With a spread this small, just going with the moneyline wager makes a lot of sense as well. At this writing, you can get the Eagles at +105 to win, which means you would bet $100 to win $105 and take home $205.

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Point Total

This one sits at 48.5 after opening a point higher. There’s a sense that this is going to be more of a defensive struggle than Super Bowl LVII, which ended 38-35 in the Chiefs’ favor. Some of this has to do with the fact that the Chiefs’ offense is not as prolific as it was – and Philadelphia’s offense has gotten more conservative. As we’ve seen in this postseason, though, scoring can explode at any moment. I don’t have a good sense of which way this game will go in terms of scoring, but there are plenty of other ways to find wagering value for this game.

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How about a teaser?

Like I said earlier, you might think that the Eagles’ defense will shut down the Chiefs’ attack like they did the Commanders’. If you do, then you might want to push that point spread over to the Philadelphia side and take on a higher payout if those higher odds pay off. I actually feel pretty good about this point spread, so I don’t see a lot of reason to reduce my payout to move it in one direction or the other.

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My Analysis

I think this is going to be a back-and-forth game, and the team that has the ball last is likely to pull off the win. If the Chiefs finish the game with a touchdown or field goal to win, they will likely cover their side of that line. You could pay to move it a couple of points higher – a Philadelphia +3.5 line would likely cost you, but if you think the Chiefs will pull off another late miracle, then you would still have a lot higher chance of covering.

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Super Bowl Betting: Looking for a parlay opportunity on the Philadelphia side of the ball?

 

Jalen Hurts UNDER 27.5 pass attempts AND 18.5 pass completions

Despite needing to come from behind, the Eagles maintained a balanced approach, with Hurts averaging 16.5 completions in the regular season, dropping to 16 in the playoffs. A snowy game against the Rams emphasized the run, while a strong lead against Washington minimized Hurts’ workload.

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Top Props for the Eagles

One more plug for the Eagles and the point spread. They are 2-0 against the spread when they’ve been underdogs in Super Bowls. Again, though, given this tight spread, they’d almost have to win outright just to cover.

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Saquon Barkley UNDER 113.5 rushing yards

Barkley began the NFC Championship with a 60-yard touchdown run, finishing with 118 rushing yards. He rested in the fourth quarter as the game was secure. Notably, it has been 23 years since a Super Bowl featured a player with over 114 rushing yards. The Chiefs have allowed just two runs of 26 yards or more in their last 20 postseason games.

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Dallas Goedert OVER 51.5 receiving yards

Goedert averaged 49.6 receiving yards in the regular season but has improved to 62.7 yards in the playoffs after returning from injury, including 85 yards against the Commanders. The Chiefs allow the most tight end receiving yards, enhancing his value.

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A.J. Brown UNDER 4.5 receptions

Brown can dominate, but the Chiefs effectively contain Philadelphia’s passing game, focusing on Barkley, Gainwell, and Goedert while shutting down wide receivers. Despite having elite receivers like Brown and Smith, the Eagles’ conservative offense offers potential value on this prop bet.

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