On Saturday, the IndyCar racing world experienced “Bump Day,” when the field of entrants to the Indianapolis 500 is cut down to the final field of 33. At the start of the day, there were 35 cars looking to qualify, and two were sent home. The greatest degree of intrigue revolved around Will Power, who is the 2018 Indy 500 champion and the 2014 IndyCar Series champion, but he still needed to make a gutsy move at qualifying to make it into the final field.
Let’s take a look at his decision and how it might impact your IndyCar betting for the Greatest Spectacle in Racing.
NTT IndyCar Update | Indy 500: Upsets and Surprises
Along with Power, the other driver to qualify at the last minute was Simona de Silvestro of Paretto Autosport. De Silvestro is part of a female forward organization, with most of its staff and team (along with its driver) made up of women, getting support from Team Penske. Charlie Kimball (AJ Foyt Racing) and R.C. Enerson (Top Gun Racing) were the two that got sent home, which was not really a surprise on the basis of their performance the prior week, including Fast Friday.
Power almost ended up heading home instead of one of those two, though, when he scraped into the wall at Turn 2 of his last lap of qualifying. He decided to stay on the gas and managed an average of 228.876 mph. The contact kicked the tie from his right rear tire, and the event rules kept the team from repairing the damage. If Power had opted to come out and go back to make a second attempt, with the damage impacting the car from the start, he might not have been able to get a qualifying time.
Power managed to avoid becoming the first Team Penske racer to miss the Indy 500 since 1995. Given the fact that Penske failed to land a driver in the Fast Nine Shootout for the second year in a row, this was a real danger for the team. Scott McLaughlin put up the best performance on Saturday for any Team Penske driver, coming in 17th. Other Team Penske drivers included Josef Newgarden, a two-time IndyCar camp, who came in 21st, and Simon Pagenaud, who finished 26th.
Both Kimball and Emerson withdrew their initial times looking to knock de Silvestro from the 33rd and final spot, but neither could generate the speed to do so. This makes six career starts for de Silvestro at the Indianapolis 500, and her first in six years.
At this point, Scott Dixon remains the favorite after a win and a fourth-place finish at Texas Motor Speedway. Power is even with Simon Pagenaud as the fourth-best choice on the odds list. An interesting value pick is Takuma Sato, the defending champion, who is down at +1200 at this writing. Marco Andretti, who started on the pole in 2020, offers +2200 odds as he makes his 2021 debut in the circuit.
Josef Newgarden should come in with plenty of motivation after having pit trouble take away a win at Road America Race 1. Overall, given the 2021 season so far, it is difficult to argue for a true dark horse surprising the field. However, going outside the top two or three in terms of favorites can bring some value without sacrificing much in win probability.
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