MotoGP Odds and Analysis for Grande Premio Tissot de Portugal

MotoGP has undergone a change in format for 2023, as sprint races will be part of each event. A sliding scale of points will go to the first nine finishers. This makes a rider’s starting position even more important, because there are now two starts. The sprint race will start at 3:00 pm local time on the Saturday afternoon of racing weekends. The qualifying sessions will still determine the grid for the sprint as well as the Sunday races.

The sprint race will last about half of the full race distance, and half of the points will go to the top nine finishers. A 15-minute grid procedure will be in place; this is the only rule change for the sprint race. The nine riders who qualify for points will follow this progression, starting with first place: 12-9-7-6-5-4-3-2-1.

The Yamaha riders may be at a disadvantage going into 2023, at least according to Fabio Quartararo, who notes that the manufacturer has “made a step forward” with the new engine but is still “far away” from what riders need. Yamaha’s bikes have faced a deficit in top speed, and this could hinder Quartararo in defending his world championship from a year ago. Yamaha brought in Lua Marmorini, formerly the engine chief for Formula 1, to help develop the 2023 engine, and the changes brought positive speed trap figures during winter testing. Quartararo was not convinced that the engine was optimal during testing, but he went back to some parts from 2022 and improved his results. Compared to Ducati, though, Quartararo feels like he will be running at a disadvantage.

Joan Mir, on the other hand, comes into 2023 brimming with optimism after joining Marc Marquez with the Honda squad. Mir is the fifth rider in the last six seasons to make the jump to join Marquez, hoping that he will end up with better outcomes than his predecessors; since 2018, all those who made the change have had challenges on the bike. Testing ahead of the season has been a struggle for Honda this year, and Marquez said on Thursday that the bike he will ride “is not a title contender.” Mir came out of testing in 13th place – but tops among Honda riders. He was 0.8 seconds behind world champion Francesco Bagnaia on his combined times, but in the first practice round on Friday, he came in second, which made him feel more optimistic about the weekend. Mir has only won one Grand Prix, back in 2020, but he comes in with high expectations riding with Marquez.