The MotoGP season gets underway this weekend, with the first of two races over two weekends set for Losail International Circuit in Qatar. Limits on preseason testing due to COVID-19 has made the race for the title more open than it has been in years. Testing has only been allowed at Losail, which will make the races at other courses more difficult to handicap. In normal years, testing takes place in Spain (both Valencia and Jerez) and Malaysia, before going to Qatar. This time, though, the testing has only taken place in Qatar.
Let’s take a look at the MotoGP odds for racers to win in Qatar as well as some thoughts about this week’s race.
MotoGP Qatar Grand Prix Betting Preview
Racer Odds
- Jack Miller +225
- Fabio Quartararo +333
- Joan Mir, Maverick Vinales +700
- Francesco Bagnaia, Franco Morbidelli, Alex Rins +900
- Johann Zarco +1400
- Pol Espargaro +2000
- Valentino Rossi, Miguel Oliveira, Brad Binder +2500
- FIELD (any unlisted rider) +2800
- Alex Marquez, Takaaki Nakagami, Aleix Espargaro +3300
- Danilo Petrucci, S. Bradl +8000
- Martin, E. Bastianini +20000
- Marini +50000
- Ikeur Lecuona +200000
- Savadori +300000
At testing, Fabio Quartararo and Maverick Vinales have shown the quickest race pace, with both Yamahas matched almost perfectly and just a bit ahead of the other riders. Franco Morbidelli (Yamaha) and Aleix Espargaro are right behind them; Espargaro, riding an Aprilia, has the best chance of getting that manufacturer onto the podium in Qatar for the first time after solid testing.
After those four riders, there is another group that were about a quarter-second behind in terms of testing, with a larger mix of manufacturers represented. The reigning world champ Joan Mir (Suzuki), Pol Espargaro (Honda) and Jack Miller, Pecco Bagnaia and Johann Zarco (Ducati) are all in this second group in testing, but the difference is infinitesimal, and the opening lap will paly an important role.
The Yamaha M1 bikes are the slowest when it comes to straight-line speed, even behind the Aprilia. This means that attacking out of corners to facilitate overtakes in the slipstream will not work. Instead, Yamaha riders will have to use braking advantages to get and hold leads. That marks it hard to win races. In 2020, almost every time a Yamaha rider won, it happened with a breakaway at the beginning, along with setting quick lap times on a track that was clear. If a Yamaha rider can do well in qualifying and then make a clean getaway from the start, then any of that team of four (including Valentino Rossi) could win the race. However, if a Ducati rider can get to the front row in qualifying or grab a lead thanks to superior launch control in the early going, then the story could be quite different. Given the fact that the season starts with a pair of races in Qatar, and given that back-to-back races on the same track tend to feature similar results, one team or rider could emerge with a significant lead after two races.
What about Marc Marquez? He’s still recovering from injuries that he suffered back in July. However, the progress report indicates that he is doing well and will return at some point. The timetable, at least for now, remains unclear. When he does return, he will play a significant role week to week, but will he return soon enough to challenge for the World Championship? Time will tell.
