NASCAR stays out west this week, moving from the Las Vegas Motor Speedway to Phoenix Raceway. Last week, Kyle Larson took first at the Pennzoil 400. However, the race was closer than the statistics might suggest. He did lead 181 of 267 laps and swept the first two stages in addition to getting the win. This is his third career Cup Series win in Vegas, tying Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski for the most victories among active, full-time Cup Series drivers. However, things got interesting after a restart with 27 laps remaining. Tyler Reddick provided a major challenge, closing the gap and closing within 0.143 seconds of Larson with two laps remaining. Fortunately, Larson’s blocking ability kept Reddick from making more advances, and he was able to make the winning margin 0.441 seconds. This week, the Shriners Children’s 500 is the Cup Series event, set for Sunday at 3:30 pm Eastern time. FOX will have the telecast, and you can also listen on Motor Racing Network or SiriusXM. Read on to get the NASCAR Cup Series odds for each driver to win, along with our wager card suggestions.
NASCAR Betting Analysis: Shriners Children’s 500 Preview and Odds to Win
- Kyle Larson +550
- Ryan Blaney +650
- William Byron +700
- Ross Chastain, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr +900
- Kyle Busch +1000
- Joey Logano +1200
- Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott +1400
- Ty Gibbs +1800
- Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe +2500
- Brad Keselowski +2800
- Bubba Wallace +3500
- Alex Bowman +4500
- Noah Gragson +6500
- Josh Berry, Daniel Suarez +7000
- Michael McDowell +8000
- Ryan Preece, Erik Jones, Austin Cindric +10000
- Austin Dillon +11000
- Corey LaJoie +15000
- John Hunter Nemechek, Carson Hocevar +20000
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr +30000
- Zane Smith +40000
- Todd Gilliland, Harrison Burton, Daniel Hemric +70000
- Derek Kraus +90000
- Kaz Grala, Justin Haley +100000
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Kyle Larson won last week, and he can win again. He had to hold on tightly at the end in Las Vegas, but he also spent most of the race building that immense advantage. With this type of track, Larson has the car and the driving skill to win week in and week out.
William Byron won the 2023 spring race at Phoenix Raceway, even though Larson stacked up the most fantasy points. Byron will also run in the Xfinity Series race at Phoenix, so he’ll know the course even more familiarly than Larson will.
Ryan Blaney does well on flat tracks; at both Martinsville and Phoenix, Blaney is a consistent lap leader, and both of these tracks lack a lot of banking in the turns.
Ross Chastain hasn’t done that well in qualifying this season, and we saw that again going into the weekend at Phoenix. However, he has shown that he can move to the front in Phoenix.
Tyler Reddick has speed, but his pit strategy (and perhaps his pit crew) still need some improvement. His spring races tend to turn out better than his fall, perhaps the result o too much aggressive driving in the early going.
Martin Truex Jr has not done as he planned in three of his last four Phoenix Raceway events. He’s still an elite short-track driver, and his JGR Toyota team is still one of the top teams in the Series.
Denny Hamlin has expressed a lack of confidence in his Toyota Camry XSE so far this season. However, the cars will get their adjustments and should start living up to their promise sooner than later.
Chase Briscoe didn’t do well at Phoenix Raceway in the Xfinity Series. However, the Cup Series went to a low-power package that prioritized downshifting, and Briscoe suddenly became elite. He won here two years ago and has three top-ten finishes in the four NextGen car races here.
Christopher Bell was outstanding at Phoenix Raceway in the Xfinity Series and has done well at other flat-track races in the Cup Series, but things haven’t worked out for him yet at Phoenix. Is this the week?
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2023 United Rentals Work United 500 Betting Analysis
NASCAR Cup Series Odds and Betting Opportunities for United Rentals Work United 500
William Byron roared to victory at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway last week in the NASCAR Cup Series’ Pennzoil 400. His pit crew did some nifty work to get him off pit road ahead of teammate Kyle Larson for an overtime restart, and he cashed in with his fifth Cup Series win. Larson had a two-second lead with four laps remaining, but then Aric Almirola careened into the wall on Turn 4, prompting the race’s fourth and last caution. Martin Truex Jr stayed out on the track, while most of the rest of the field went to pit row for two tires. Byron’s quick change got him a spot on the front row for the overtime on the outside of Truex. He zipped past Truex entering Turn 3 and beat Larson by 0.622 seconds. Alex Bowman finished third to give Hendrick Motorsports a podium sweep. This week the series moves to Phoenix Raceway for the United Rentals 500, set for Sunday at 3:30 pm Eastern time. You can catch the broadcast on FOX, the Motor Racing Network or SiriusXM. We have the driver odds for the race, along with our usualy NASCAR betting suggestions.
| Driver | Odds | Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney | +800 |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +900 |
| Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain, Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, Kevin Harvick | +1000 |
| William Byron | +1200 |
| Chase Briscoe, Alex Bowman | +2000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2500 |
| Daniel Suarez | +3000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +3500 |
| Brad Keselowski, Ryan Preece | +4000 |
| Austin Cindric, Aric Almirola, Ty Gibbs, Josh Berry, Erik Jones | +5000 |
| Austin Dillon | +6000 |
| Chris Buescher | +8000 |
| AJ Allmendinger, Noah Gragson, Justin Haley, Corey LaJoie | +10000 |
| Zane Smith, Michael McDowell, Harrison Burton | +20000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | +25000 |
| Ty Dillon, Todd Gilliland, Cody Ware, BJ McLeod | +100000 |
Ryan Blaney is a co-favorite and deservedly so, even if he hasn’t started stacking up wins like some others in the Cup Series. He runs fast laps and he stacks up laps led. He was in position to win the fall race at Phoenix Raceway, but a shoddy pit stop kept him from the victory. He even bounced back and could have won, but this was the Championship 4 race, and Blaney wanted to help his teammate, Joey Logano, take the Cup Series title. Blaney did lead 109 laps in that race, and he led 143 laps in the spring 2022 race at Phoenix.
Ty Gibbs is an interesting dark horse, but if you remember 2022, you know that long shots had more hope because of the chaotic racing package. This season hasn’t seen the same sort of volatility, as the drivers and teams seem to understand the Gen 7 car, at least on the intermediate tracks. This week, though, a new aero package emerges that is designed to make better racing on short tracks. Teams don’t have much experience with the new package, which has been designed to disrupt things. The spoiler is almost nonexistent, and the package is quite similar to what Xfinity Series drivers use. Gibbs won the last Xfinity Series event in Phoenix, beating Justin Allgaier and Noah Gragson, two drivers with a lot of success at Phoenix. In four races here with ARCA / K&N, Gibbs has three wins and a second-place, with 339 total laps led. With the talent and the car, Gibbs has what it takes to take advantage if the racing package causes problems.
Bubba Wallace had a hard time in the first few years of his career, but he took a while to grow into the sport, and his first team gave him equipment that wasn’t good enough to win. On short-flat track races, Wallace has started to emerge; in the last four events on this type of track in 2022, Wallace cracked the top 15 each time. He’s definitely another longer shot to consider in your wagering strategy.
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