Last week, AJ Allmendinger came away with the win in the NASCAR Xfinity Series at the Tennessee Lottery 250, held at Nashville Superspeedway. This was Allmendinger’s first win on an oval in 2023, and it took double overtime for him to do it. He led the last 20 laps and blew away from the pack at the last restart, beating Riley Herbst by 1.323 seconds. The race tied a record with 11 cautions and featured 17 lead changes among 11 different drivers. Before the Stage 2 breaks, 15 of the 38 cars in the field had been involved in at least one incident.
This week, the Xfinity Series moves to a street race for the first time, as The Loop 121 will follow a street course through Chicago, going 55 laps for 121 miles. The race is set for Saturday at 5:00 pm Eastern time, with the telecast on USA Network. You can listen on Motor Racing Network or the SiriusXM app.
Let’s take a look at some NASCAR Xfinity betting thoughts on this unique race.
NASCAR News: Xfinity Series The Loop 121 Preview
It’s important to consider that, for many drivers, The Loop 121 will be the first street event in their careers driving a stock car. This makes handicapping a bit of a challenge as we try to figure out who the favorites should be and how to wager. Cole Custer (+400) is the favorite for the first time in 2023. He picked up his first victory of the year in Portland on a road course. He then came in sixth at Sonoma, also on a road course. In the Xfinity Series, few drivers have been more consistent in 2023. His worst finish in the last nine races is ninth, and he has shown solid speed even when not racing on ovals.
Sheldon Creed (+500) is still looking for his first win in 2023. He came in second at Talladega, and in Portland, he took the pole position in qualifying and led the most laps before settling for a seventh-place finish. At Sonoma, he came in 11th. He has shown the ability to go fast on road courses, but I’m a little surprised to see him this high on the odds list. In my mind, he doesn’t offer enough value for the wager.
Justin Allgaier (+600) is one of two drivers who have top-ten finishes in all three of the Xfinity Series road course events in 2023. In the overall standings, he sits in third place, 41 points back of John Hunter Nemechek. If he can continue this strong racing outside ovals, he could narrow that gap considerably.
Parker Kligerman (+900) is racing his first full season in the Xfinity Series in 10 years. On road courses, he came in 14th in Portland and fifth in Sonoma, but he had a hard time at Circuit of the Americas, coming in 30th down in Austin, and ovals haven’t been kind to him. His top results in 2023 are a third-place finish in Talladega and a fourth-place in Atlanta. He also is getting thin value based on his performance.
John Hunter Nemechek (+1000) sits just nine points ahead of Austin Hill in the Xfinity driver standings. He hasn’t won in two and a half months, but his results have been solid, with three finishes in the top five (fifth at Dover, fifth at Darlington and second at Charlotte), as his game is improving back to where it was during the first month of the 2023 season.
Three drivers sit at +1200: Sammy Smith, Austin Hill and Connor Mosack. Smith is the youngest Xfinity Series driver this season, but he’s punching above his weight. He has a victory in Phoenix, a fourth-place in Austin and a runner-up at Martinsville to punctuate a solid rookie campaign. Things haven’t been as good lately, with just two finishes in the top ten in his last five starts.
Hill has been consistent, although his start to 2023 (three wins in five races) has dimmed a bit. In the last six races, he has not finished worse than eighth, which is how he’s crept so close to Nemechek. On road courses, he was fifth in Portland and eighth in Sonoma.
Mosack is a rookie who has run in nine races this year. On road courses, he has done well, with a ninth-place in Portland and an 18th-place in Austin. I’m not sure these odds give him enough value here, though.
One darker horse to look at is Sam Mayer (+1400). He came in seventh in Austin, 10th in Sonoma and third in Portland, and he has two podium finishes in the last three events. These are similar results to drivers who offer a lot less value.
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