The 15th race of the 2021 Formula 1 season is set for the Sochi Autodrom this weekend. This is a street circuit that winds through 18 turns, some of them the slow, 90-degree variety, with a surface that has been in place for a decade. The layout measures 3.63 miles, and Pirelli has suggested its three softest compounds for the drivers. Weather could be a factor, as there is a forecast of light rain for the qualifying rounds on Saturday and the race on Sunday. Max Verstappen comes in with a five-point lead in the Drivers’ Championship over Lewis Hamilton. Valtteri Bottas is in third — but he is 85 points out of first. In the Constructors’ Championship, Mercedes has an 18-point advantage over Red Bull. Bottas is the defending champion at Sochi.
Let’s look at the Formula 1 betting odds for the drivers as well as other insights into the race.
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Driver Odds
| Lewis Hamilton | -135 |
| Max Verstappen | +350 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +450 |
| Lando Norris | +1200 |
| Sergio Perez | +2200 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +2500 |
| George Russell | +3300 |
| Pierre Gasly | +8000 |
| Charles Leclerc, Carlos Sainz Jr, Sebastian Vettel | +10000 |
Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton had a collision in the last Formula 1 race in Italy, which was the second time the top two drivers in F1 have had an incident. Sochi’s course is difficult to pass on, which could make a collision likelier. Verstappen comes in with a three-place penalty on the grid due to his role in the incident last time out, so he is not likely to be starting close to Hamilton. Red Bull could use this occasion to take the additional hit that might come by going to a fourth engine for the season for Verstappen.
Bottas took that same penalty last race after snagging the pole and winning the spring qualifying rounds. If Verstappen’s best possible start is fourth, Red Bull could just move him to the rear of the grid anyway with a new engine. This decision generally takes place after qualifying. Because of this possibility, Verstappen is not a smart pick for this race. Mercedes has won at Sochi every time since the race had its debut in 2014. Bottas comes in with reasonable value, but there is also the possibility that Mercedes will order him to help Hamilton win, as Hamilton would pass Verstappen in the Drivers’ Championship standings with the victory.
What about longshots? Light rain would allow the race to take place but could lead to some chaos out on the course. The McLaren drivers team found the podium in Italy, but that had more to do with the collision than with a particular advantage. McLaren cars also use a Mercedes engine, which means that if the conditions in Sochi favor McLaren, they would also favor Mercedes. If something happens to Hamilton and Bottas, Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo would be the likeliest to benefit.
As far as futures betting on the Drivers’ Championship goes, Verstappen remains the favorite, although it will be interesting to see how that changes if Hamilton can take advantage of Verstappen’s penalty this weekend. In the Constructors’ Championship, Bottas’ performance in Italy was significant, as he won spring qualifying and got to the podium, while Red Bull’s top driver, Sergio Perez, only took fifth. Bottas is racing with Mercedes for the last time this year, but he may end up being the reason why Mercedes wins another Constructor title.
Formula 1 Betting Odds
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