On Friday night, Bellator 196 will take place at the Budapest Sports Arena in Hungary’s capital. Preliminary bouts start at 7:00pm Eastern time, with the main card set for 9:00, featuring lightweights Benson Henderson and Roger Huerta. This is a replacement of the original main card, which was to feature James Gallagher and Adam Borics. You can check out all of the action on the Paramount Network. Let’s take a look at your best MMA betting picks for this MMA event.
Bellator 196 Betting Preview & Expert Prediction
Benson Henderson (24-8) vs Roger Huerta (24-9-1, 1 NC)
Henderson’s 24-8 record may be somewhat misleading, as he has posted just a 1-3 record in Bellator matchups. However, Huerta has also had a cold start in Bellator, winning just one of his first three bouts in the promotion.
Even so, it is Henderson who is looking to bounce back from some recent doldrums in the cage. Henderson is left-handed and prefers to keep his opponent at a distance. He approaches the sport more from a boxing perspective, as he likes to jab and move, mixing in some oblique kicks and side kicks as well.
His left-handed blows come with accuracy, pounding the body and the head. He likes to follow up that left with kicks and hooks to build rhythm. However, there are too many times when he doesn’t bring strikes and kicks with enough volume or aggression to deliver a win. That could prove to be the crucial flaw in his fight against Huerta.
Huerta comes from a wrestling background and also did some fighting in the ISKA karate organization. That combination of training has produced a brawler that combined big punches with powerful kicks. He has trained himself to take a slightly more disciplined approach through his time in the UFC. In his Bellator bouts, he has shown more technique on his strikes and kicks, and when he moves from one stance to another, he shows a greater degree of purpose than he did before.
In the last six years, Huerta has been fighting for the ONE Championship, but he only went 3-3 there. His striking did get significantly better, but he spends too much time standing and trading blows instead of moving the fight down to the floor — where his wrestling background would make him much more likely to win.
In this fight, Huerta should work to get Henderson to the ground. Henderson can go toe to toe with Huerta, but while Henderson has shown some strength on the ground, he has had difficulties in the past with pressure fighters who also have skill when it comes to wrestling. This means, then, that what happens on the ground and in the clinch will determine which way this fight goes.
For Henderson to win, he will need to use a combination of strikes, elbows and creative leg moves to take down Huerta. He has put together some terrific leg combinations in his past wins, and that is an area in which he has shown perhaps the most talent. For Huerta to win, he will try to get Henderson to the ground first and then move to get a submission.
As far as the overall fight goes, I see Henderson just looking a step quicker of Huerta and emerging as the better fighter toe to toe. It is true that Henderson has taken some losses lately, but the fact that Huerta only has one bout in the last 17 months could work against him as well, as he may have some rust.
Henderson’s style generally leads to fights that seem closer than they should, but his advantage on his feet should allow him to turn this fight into a clearer verdict, if not a submission. Huerta is also an aggressive fighter, but his time away will likely mean that it takes longer for him to build a sense of rhythm than it will for Henderson. I predict that Henderson will win on the cards.
