Manny Pacquiao vs Keith Thurman Odds, Boxing Preview & Pick

On Saturday, the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas will host a bout between WBA regular welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao (61-7-2, 39 KO) and Super WBA Welterweight Champion Keith Thurman. (29-0, 22 KO). Thurman (-142) is the slight favorite over Pacquiao (+128). You can catch the action on FOX Pay-Per-View, with undercard fights available on FOX and FOX Deportes. We have your boxing betting preview on Manny Pacquiao vs Keith Thurman, so don’t lock in your wagers until you read our insights.

Manny Pacquiao vs Keith Thurman Odds, Boxing Preview & Pick

• When: Saturday, July 20
• Where: MGM Grand Garden, Las Vegas, NV
• TV: FOX Sports Pay-Per-View
• Moneyline Odds: Manny Pacquiao -155, Keith Thurman +125
• Live Stream: Fox Sports Live

Manny Pacquiao definitely has the resume here, with world titles ranging from junior lightweight to junior middleweight. His last three fights have come against Jessie Vargas, Lucas Matthysse and Adrien Broner, all valid contenders in the welterweight class, and he has defended his title each time. He stands at 5’6” and has a 67-inch reach. Keith Thurman remains undefeated as a pro fighter, bringing in slight advantages in height and reach (5’8” with a 69-inch reach). His biggest wins all came on the cards, against Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia and Robert Guerrero. In Thurman’s last fight, he defeated Josesito Lopez, knocking him down in the second round, but Lopez gave Thurman all he wanted, bringing a serious threat in the seventh round. Thurman landed 247 punches, but only 24 were to the body, and while Thurman had the judges convinced that he won, reviewers of the fight were not impressed with the showing overall.

Who Has the Most Experience?

Pacquiao has the edge when it comes to experience and savvy when it comes to making his way through a twelve-round fight at championship level. He does not throw as many punches as he once did, but he picks his spots wisely. Thurman comes in with a 76 percent knockout ratio, with just seven fights in his 29 going to the cards. Thurman needs to come in and take charge of the pace from the beginning, letting his striking power and his youth turn to advantage. That means that he needs to stop Pacquiao from getting close enough to strike, and staying on the move. Thurman has the athleticism to go the distance if he needs to, but he also has the striking power to deliver a knockout if Pacquiao makes the uncharacteristic mistake of letting his defenses down. He likes to bring the action, combining hooks and uppercuts when he gets close enough. He ran into trouble against Lopez when Lopez brought pressure, but Pacquiao does not bring pressure, instead preferring to hang back and box.

Is Age Important?

Age should not be your only consideration as you think about which boxer to pick. His cardio has looked stronger in his recent bouts. However, his striking power has clearly started to wane, as we saw in his victory over Jeff Horn, and Thurman is a more imposing fighter than Horn. Thurman did not look impressive in his last fight, hanging on to win on the cards. However, if he is the fighter that his record suggests, he will learn from that lesson and bring a better game against Pacquiao. Also, despite Thurman’s high knockout ratio, five of his last six cards have gone to the cards. Some of this shows a wiser approach by Thurman, who is picking his spots, and some of it shows an increase in the quality of his competition. As the fight wears on, Thurman should be able to land more and more punches and gain an advantage on the cards — and deliver a win with points. Final Fight Prediction: Thurman wins via decision+