The PGA Tour’s next signature event comes this weekend as the Arnold Palmer Invitational is set for Bay Hill. Last week, Austin Eckroat paid off on +10000 odds to win the Cognizant Classic in the first event in the Tour’s Florida swing, becoming the sixth player to win a PGA Tour event this season with odds at least that long – in just nine events. The longest shot to win so far this season was Nick Dunlap, the then-amateur who won The American Express at +40000. The player closest to the top of the sports betting odds list to win this season was Jake Knapp, who won the Mexico Open at “just” +4000. Let’s take a look at the PGA odds for this week’s event as well as some wager card suggestions.
Golf Betting Odds and Favorites to Win 2024 PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Scottie Scheffler +650
- Rory McIlroy +900
- Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland +1400
- Patrick Cantlay +1600
- Ludvig Aberg +1800
- Jordan Spieth +2000
- Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa +2200
- Will Zalatoris, Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa, Cameron Young +2500
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
- Justin Thomas, Jason Day +3000
- Min Woo Lee +3500
- Hideki Matsuyama +4000
- Wyndham Clark, Keegan Bradley, Byeong Hun An +4500
- Tom Kim, Russell Henley, Jake Knapp, Harris English, Corey Conners, Chris Kirk, Adam Scott +5000
- Sungjae Im, Kurt Kitayama +5500
- Shane Lowry, Sahith Theegala, Adam Hadwin, Erik Van Rooyen +6000
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7000
- Si Woo Kim, Matthieu Pavon, J.T. Poston, Eric Cole, Emiliano Grillo +7500
- Stephan Jaeger, Nicolai Hojgaard, Cam Davis +8000
- Tom Hoge, Rickie Fowler, Luke List, Austin Eckroat +9000
- Patrick Rodgers +10000
PGA Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024
Rory McIlroy has seen his putting improve, and consistency on the greens is all he was really lacking. He has a win in Dubai already and has a solid history at Bay Hill. Last week, he struck the ball well, so all signs point to a big weekend.
Ludvig Aberg has emerged as an elite long-iron player, and Bay Hill rewards players with those skills more than it does those who do better with the edge. At Torrey Pines and Riviera he gained the most strokes on approach. Also, his length off the tee will solve a lot of the problems that Bay Hill presents. In his last 24 rounds he ranks in the top three in this field in par 3s gained from over 200 yards, par 4s gained, and opportunities gained. All four of Bay Hill’s par 3 holes are 200 yards are longer, just FYI. He also ranks first in this field in Total Driving over his last 50 rounds. He has length and accuracy, and accuracy is key given the thick Bermuda grass waiting in th rough.
Collin Morikawa is above the PGA Tour average in putts made from within 10 feet, suggesting some stability for this tournament. Also, he was the best in this field in ball-striking at Bay Hill four years ago, when he came in T9.
Patrick Cantlay is the top golfer in the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring (64.6 average). The weather on Thursday and Friday is supposed to be calmer, which will give Cantlay the perfect opportunity to build a lead and then play conservatively when the winds come on the weekend.
Tommy Fleetwood has picked up a win, a T14 and a T10 in three of his last four tournaments. At Bay Hill, he came in third in 2019 and has four more finishes in the top 26.
Viktor Hovland came in second and tenth in his last two Bay Hill starts, but 2024 has (at least so far) been a slow season for him. At Riviera, his game started to show up, though, as he gained more than 1.5 strikes in both of the ball-striking categories. Going into the weekend, his short game showed signs of life as well. His driving and long-iron abilities should also be rewarded by this course.
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