The PGA Tour is at Riviera Country Club near Los Angeles this week for the Genesis Invitational. The field only has 70 golfers, but there will still be a cut after Friday’s action. The top 50 and ties, along with any other golfers who are within 10 shots of the leader, will make it into the weekend. The course runs 7,322 yards at par 71, with undulating fairways and many doglegs. In 2023, only 51% of tee shots ended up in the fairway, but distance is more important than accuracy. The average green is fairly large (7,500 square feet), but the trees protecting from the rough and run-off areas near the greens will keep many golfers from reaching in regulation. The Poa annua grass is one of the faster Tour surfaces. The golfers with the best chances will have solid driving distance, excellent skills around the green, accuracy on approach shots from more than 150 yards, and comfort with putting on Poa annua surfaces. Check out the PGA betting odds for the contenders (odds of +10000 or better) as well as our picks.
Golf Betting Odds and Favorites to Win 2024 Genesis Invitational Open
- Scottie Scheffler +500
- Rory McIlroy +775
- Viktor Hovland +1100
- Xander Schauffele +1200
- Collin Morikawa +1250
- Justin Thomas +1300
- Patrick Cantlay +1400
- Max Homa +1500
- Ludvig Aberg +1700
- Sam Burns +1700
- Jordan Spieth +2000
- Tommy Fleetwood +2500
- Tony Finau +2500
- Cameron Young +2500
- Adam Scott +2500
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
- Sahith Theegala +2500
- Wyndham Clark +3000
- Nicolai Hojgaard +400
- Joohyung Kim +4000
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Let’s start with dark horse Tom Hoge. He only has one PGA Tour victory in his career, back at the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he knocked off Jordan Spieth by two strokes. 2024 has been a great year for Hoge so far. In six starts, he has made five cuts, and he finished T6 at Pebble Beach two weeks ago before following that up with a T17 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. In 2023, he finished T14 at the Genesis Invitational.
Collin Morikawa played college golf at Cal and grew up in Los Angeles, so Poa annua grass on the greens shouldn’t hurt his game at all. His 2022-23 season was not all that spectacular, but he did get a win in the fall season at Tokyo’s ZOZO Championship. Since that victory, he finished T5 at The Sentry, missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, and finished 14th at Pebble Beach. His driver is elite in terms of both accuracy and distance, and his approach from 150+ yards is terrific. His short game has improved recently. At Riviera, he has missed the cut in all four of his starts; in the last two years, he has come in sixth and second, respectively, at the Genesis Invitational.
Tony Finau has not played consistency well over the last half-year, but he has three top-seven finishes in his last nine events. He tends to do his best in West Coast events, and after he opted out of the Phoenix Open last week, he should have gotten plenty of rest. In this field, he is one of the top golfers in Strokes Gained: Approach from Rough and Strokes Gained: Approach from 150+ Yards. He has good driver distance, and his short game is solid as well. Putting can be an adventure, but Poa annua is one of his better surfaces. He has finished second here twice, 2018 and 2021.
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2023 PGA Genesis Invitational Analysis
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Golf Betting Odds and Analysis for 2023 Genesis Invitational Open
This week is the second designated event in as many weeks for the PGA Tour, as the Riviera Country Club will host the 2023 Genesis Invitational starting on Thursday. Tiger Woods’ foundation is the host for the event, and he will return to competitive play for the first time in 2023, joined by 19 of the top 20 players according to the Official World Golf Rankings, including #1 Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler just defended his title at the Waste Management Phoenix Open successfully, so it will be interesting to see if he can have a spring like last year, when he won four tournaments in six starts. Let’s take a look at the Golf contender odds for this event (+10000 or better), along with some suggestions for your wager cards.
| Top Contender Odds (+10000 or better) | |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +750 |
| Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy | +1000 |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1600 |
| Tony Finau | +1800 |
| Max Homa, Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
| Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay | +2500 |
| Sam Burns | +2800 |
| Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young | +3000 |
| Will Zalatoris, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama | +3500 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick, Jason Day | +4000 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +4500 |
| Adam Scott | +5000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +6000 |
| Sahith Theegala, Justin Rose | +7000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +7500 |
| Wyndham Clark, Shane Lowry | +8000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood, Taylor Montgomery, Russell Henley, Nick Taylor | +9000 |
| Tom Hoge, Tiger Woods, Si Woo Kim, Corey Conners, Brian Harman, Alex Noren | +10000 |
Jon Rahm is the favorite for a reason. In 2023, he has played in four tournaments, winning two and finishing seventh and third in the other two. In this field, he is tops in Strokes Gained: Total (3.33), so even though he doesn’t offer a lot of value, he’s a smart pick. If you’re wagering on top-10 finishes, you have to have him in your mix.
Scottie Scheffler finished T7 at last year’s Genesis Invitational, thanks to a dropoff in the second round. However, as he showed last year, he is one of those players who can go an extended run of elite play.
Max Homa won the Genesis Invitational in 2021 and has a solid track record on California golf courses. He also won the Farmers Insurance Open earlier in 2023, but the field here is much stronger.
Collin Morikawa calls Los Angeles home and has been right there on Sundays on multiple occasions this year. Yes, he missed the cut last week in Phoenix, but this week’s course rewards solid iron play, and few iron players of this generation have the skill that Morikawa does.
Viktor Hovland saw his chipping do him in last week in Phoenix. He struck the ball and putted at an elite level. Hovland enters his third Genesis Invitational this week; in his last two starts here, he has finished T4 and T5.
Rory McIlroy was 16th in Phoenix in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, but it was his putter that was his undoing. His game has been as solid as that of Scheffler and Rahm over the past 12 months.
Justin Thomas gained over 8.8 strokes with his ball striking last week in Phoenix, the best number he has posted since last June. He is also elite when playing around hte green, which is an immense factor this weekend.
Want some long shots? Consider Kurt Kitayama. Twelve months ago, he was sitting at #284 in the Official World Golf Rankings and in the first year of his PGA Tour membership. He has risen to #44 since then thanks to four podium finishes. He takes a courageous approach that will need some tempering to win, but at Pebble Beach, he went out in the last threesome in the final round with Justin Rose (who would go on to win), but his last-round score of 76 dropped him to T29. Jhonattan Vegas returned from injury in January and has played three tournaments, finishing in the top 25 in his last two. He makes his tenth start at Riviera, where he has cracked the top 15 twice.
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