Early PGA Championship Odds: Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson Riding High

Early PGA Championship Odds: Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson Riding High

Written by on April 27, 2021

The last time Rory McIlroy won a major championship was 2014. However, he’s still the early favorite to win the PGA Championship in 2021, set for Kiawah Golf Resort in South Carolina. The tournament is set for May 20-23, and McIlroy romped all over this course in his 2012 win. He won the tournament by eight strokes, which is the biggest margin of victory during the stroke play era.

Let’s take a look at the PGA Championship betting odds for the contenders (+10000 or better) as you consider your early PGA choices.

PGA News: Early PGA Championship Odds

Contender Odds
Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson           +1000
Jon Rahm   +1100
Justin Thomas                                   +1200
Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth                        +1400
Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele  +1600
Tyrrell Hatton +2200
Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Webb Simpson                     +2500
Daniel Berger, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed        +3300
Jason Day, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Matthew Wolff, Will Zalatoris +4000
Justin Rose +4500
Matthew Fitzpatrick, Louis Oosthuizen, Sungjae Im +5000
Sergio Garcia, Joaquin Niemann, Gary Woodland   +6600
Abraham Ancer, Cameron Champ, Corey Conners, Marc Leishman, Shane Lowry, Henrik Stenson, Lee Westwood                      +8000
Billy Horschel, Matt Kuchar, Phil Mickelson, Cameron Smith, Brendon Todd, Bubba Watson                      +10000

We’ll write a more conventional preview for the PGA Championship as the tournament gets closer. For now, though, let’s take a look at a player outside the range of contenders — Keegan Bradley, who currently offers action at +20000. He is the winner of the 2011 PGA Championship, so he has what it takes to win a major.

Why Keegan Bradley? Well, it has to do with the grass that the players will encounter at Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course. This course has Paspalum grass, which is unique in its spongy texture, holding onto the ball more than other types of grass. This means that chips and approach shots will not run as far. In 2012, when McIlroy won at Kiawah, he was one of the only players who had played a lot on Paspalum.

This grass is still fairly uncommon, but courses like TPC Kuala Lumpur, Corales Golf Club and El Camaleon all have it. Bradley ranks third among all PGA players in the Championship field, over his last 24 rounds in Strokes Gained: Total when playing on Paspalum grass. This includes some impressive results at The CIMB Classic at Kuala Lumpur and The OHL at El Camaleon.

Bradley is a terrific ball-striker, and Paspalum tends to produce more receptive greens, which help them out. This means that he can shoot more aggressively at the pin without having to worry about the ball rolling past the pin too far. When Bradley was at the 2012 PGA Championship (which McIlroy won), he tied for third.

The Ocean Course was designed by Pete Dye, who tends to design courses with small greens, tough angles for approach shots and lengthy bunkers in the fairway. Players who can do well on one Dye course tend to do well on a lot of them. Bradley ranks 15th in his last 24 rounds among PGA Championship field players in Strokes Gained: Total on courses that Dye has designed.

Bradley’s 2021 campaign has been fairly solid, with four straight top-30 finishes, averaging five Strokes Gained: Tee to Green in each event. Traditionally, Bradley’s weakest part of his game has been his putting, but he has gained strokes using his putter in three of these four tournaments.

In the final analysis, Bradley offers a ton of value right now for the sports bettor. With all of these factors working in his favor, he’s definitely an intriguing longshot pick.


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