We’re just under a month away from the 2021 U.S. Open, set for Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego. As of May 24, 76 players were fully exempt for the tournament, as 27 players joined the list over the weekend. There were 24 players in the top 60 players in the Official World Golf Rankings as of May 24 who had not earned an exemption by any other means, such as major champions Bubba Watson and Adam Scott. Brian Harman and Tommy Fleetwood also earned exemptions through this path. Phil Mickelson had already accepted a special exemption to take part in his 30th U.S. Open, but his win at the PGA Championship moved him to #32 in the rankings and also earned him an entry for the next five years.
Let’s take a look at some of the early US Open betting odds — and consider how the PGA Championship outcome altered some of the moneylines.
PGA Updates: Early U.S. Open Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +1100 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1200 |
| Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy | +1600 |
| Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas | +1700 |
| Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
| Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland | +2500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed | +3000 |
| Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris | +3500 |
| Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Webb Simpson | +4000 |
| Cameron Smith, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Paul Casey | +5000 |
| Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger | +6000 |
You’ll notice that Phil Mickelson comes in at +5000 odds. The sportsbooks took a bath when he won the PGA Championship; as of Wednesday, the day before the opening round, he appeared as high as +30000 on a number of books, and even at the start of the opening round that number had only dropped to +25000. One single bettor put down a $1,000 bet on Mickelson to win at those +300000 odds and walked away with a pile of cash.
Brooks Koepka is the second best choice on the odds list right now after his runner-up performance at The Ocean Course. He noted, in his post-tournament press conference, that fans in the press accompanying him and Phil Mickelson up the 18th fairway on Sunday bumped into his knee, which underwent surgery just a few weeks ago (after Koepka slipped on vacation and dislocated his kneecap). He should have plenty of motivation, but given the way in which a recently released video shows that Bryson DeChambeau has worked his way into Koepka’s head, it’s hard to say whether he has the mental toughness to finish atop a leaderboard at this point in time. DeChambeau struggled at The Ocean Course, a place that his long driving should have helped him dominate, as his short game (and driving accuracy) present real questions. DeChambeau said after the PGA Championship that The Ocean Course was possibly the toughest course he had ever played, thanks in part to winds that were harsh and a setup that challenged golfers, giving openings for birdies but also establishing penalties that led to bogies.
What about Louis Oosthuizen? He has now finished as the runner-up at a major five times. E seems to take majors much less seriously than some of his counterparts; the likes of Kopeka, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy have said that majors are more important than the other events, but Oosthuizen has never come forth with that sort of rhetoric. So he avoids the sort of scrutiny that was applied to the likes of, say, Greg Norman, and if you look at how far he is down the odds list for the U.S. Open, you have to wonder if he isn’t worth a flyer this time around. After all, most of the time, perennial runners-up eventually get a trophy of their own.
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