PGA Championship Odds and Analysis: Rahm, Scheffler and McIlroy are the Favorites

PGA Championship Odds and Analysis: Rahm, Scheffler and McIlroy are the Favorites

The 2023 PGA Championship will start on Thursday, May 18, at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. The East Course, designed by Donald Ross and recently restored, will be the backdrop for the latest major. Justin Thomas is the defending champion, but last year’s PGA Championship was played at Southern Hills, and the field will face an East Course that is new in a number of ways. Architect Andrew Green remodeled each landing zone, fairway and green complex, removing thousands of trees to open sightlines back up to make the course more closely resemble its 1924 state. Green also built three new holes, and the course is over 200 yards longer. The key pitfalls now involve fairway bunkers, with tall, vertical edges that will keep many players from reaching the green in a single shot if they roll into them. Let’s look at the early PGA betting odds for the contenders (+10000 or better) as well as some early wagering suggestions.

 

Golf Betting News: Updated Early Odds for the PGA Championship 2023

 
Player Odds (+10000 or better)
Jon Rahm +700
Scottie Scheffler +900
Rory McIlroy +1000
Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka +2000
Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay +2200
Cameron Smith, Cameron Young +2500
Viktor Hovland +2800
Tony Finau +3000
Max Homa, Sam Burns, Jason Day +3500
Matthew Fitzpatrick, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im +4000
Dustin Johnson, Shane Lowry, Tom Kim +4500
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
Joaquin Niemann +5500
Corey Conners, Patrick Reed +6000
Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley +6600
Taylor Montgomery, Russell Henley +7000
Rickie Fowler, Min Woo Lee +7500
Daniel Berger, Abraham Ancer, Tiger Woods, Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen, Kurt Kitayama, Gary Woodland +8000
Davis Riley +9000
Bryson DeChambeau, Mito Pereira, Billy Horschel, Harris English, Chris Kirk, Phil Mickelson +10000
 
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One common feature between the Zurich Classic, played at TPC Louisiana, and what golfers will face at the East Course is an emphasis on long iron play. There are two par-3 holes more than 230 yards and seven par-4 holes more than 460. Let’s look at some players who excelled in their approaches at the Zurich Classic a few weeks ago and look at how they might fare at the PGA Championship.

Davis Riley

teamed up with Nick Hardy to win the Zurich Classic. In this field, Riley is naked 22nd for Strokes Gained: Approach, and in New Orleans, the duo set a tournament record with a score of 30 strokes under par. He lands on 68.3% of his greens in regulation, and his opening odds (+19000) have already plummeted.

Tom Hoge

and Harris English finished T13 at the Zurich Classic. Hoge nails iron approaches regularly and has a GIR (greens in regulation) percentage approaching 70%. He is 2nd in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach. Specifically, he ranks third in approaches from between 200 and 225 yards. His opening odds were +16000, so if you’re looking for a dark horse, here’s your candidate.

Nick Hardy

needed the win at the Zurich Classic to get a spot in the PGa Championship, and he is another iron expert. He is ranked 11th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and he ranks 18th in proximity for approaches between 200 and 225 yards as well as between 225 and 250.

Gary Woodland

did not take part in the Zurich Classic, but he has made four straight cuts through such intimidating fields as those at THE PLAYERS and the Masters, thanks in large part to his iron play. He is second in this field in approaches from between 200 and 225 yards, and he is 20th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach. His odds opened at +15000 but have dropped significantly as well.

 
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