After last week’s BMW Championship, only 30 golfers are alive in the chase for the 2024 Tour Championship.
Keegan Bradley jumped from #50 to #4 when he won the tournament last weekend, while Justin Thomas did just enough to sneak up to #30.
Play at this week’s Tour Championship starts at 11:16 am Eastern time on Thursday, and the top-ranked player, Scottie Scheffler, will start at 10 shots under par; based on where you enter the tournament on the rankings, you start anywhere from even par to Scheffler’s sizable handicap.
Scheffler has entered the Tour Championship with a 10-under score to start the last two years but has failed to turn that lead into a win.
He’s the sports betting favorite to win at this writing, but read on to see where each of the 30 golfers stands, as well as our wager card suggestions.
Golf Betting Analysis: 2024 PGA TOUR Championship Winner Odds
- Scottie Scheffler +108
- Xander Schauffele +230
- Hideki Matsuyama +970
- Ludvig Åberg +1700
- Rory McIlroy +1725
- Collin Morikawa +2200
- Patrick Cantlay +2700
- Keegan Bradley +3000
- Sam Burns +3300
- Wyndham Clark +3500
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy has won four majors in his career, but it’s been a long time since his last one. He won the Tour Championship in 2022, when he started six strokes behind Scheffler like he is again this year. The 2022 season was much better for him overall as he won three tournaments among ten top finishes in 16 tournaments played. This year, he has played in 18 tournaments, with just one win among six top-ten finishes. In his last four tournaments, he has only made the top ten once, and he missed the cut at the British Open. In the first leg of the playoffs, he finished T68, so the value on him just isn’t there, given his recent form. ^Xander Schauffele
Schauffele won both the PGA Championship and the British Open this year, getting his first two majors. In the past, he won the 2017 Tour Championship and the Olympic gold at the 2020 Summer Games. His 2024 performance made him the first player to win more than one major in the same year since 2018, when Brooks Kopeka did it. He just has a two-strike deficit to make up; in the last six years, he has five top-five Tour Championship finishes in addition to that 2017 win. Also, in seven tournaments at East Lake, he has never finished outside the top seven. He’s also won at Royal Troon and TPC River Highlands, some comparable courses. so he has to be one of your smart picks. ^Ludvig Åberg
Åberg just missed out on the win last week, but if you take a closer look at some of those bogeys, they came as the result of making unwise club choices in a course at altitude. East Lake is back down closer to sea level, so those problems should go away. Imagine a Rory McIlroy clone with an even better approach game, and that’s where Aberg is right now. He is a smart pick to finish his rookie campaign with a Tour Championship. ^Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood has had better iron play lately. His putting is hit or miss (no pun intended), but even though he starts nine strokes back, East Lake is a place where he has played well, so it’s not that hard to see him eking this out over 72 holes, making him an interesting value pick. At the BMW Championship, the driver and the irons were playing well. ^Sam Burns
Burns had a nifty 65 on Sunday at the BMW Championship. He putts well on Bermuda grass, and his only real weakness that East Lake would expose is his propensity to hit drives off-line. His driver was more disciplined at the BMW Championship, though, so if he can keep that momentum going, he’s another solid value pick. ^One of the biggest moves throughout the years @TOURChamp.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 28, 2024
From 7 strokes back after Round 1, a look at @McIlroyRory's incredible come-from-behind victory East Lake in 2022.
(Presented by @Dream_Finders) pic.twitter.com/lcLpoMlv6L
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