Next up on the 2021 PGA Tour slate is the Wells Fargo Championship, set for this weekend at Quail Hollow in North Carolina. This tournament was one of many that were canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. There will be 156 golfers in attendance, including such top players as Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland and Tony Finau. The course is a par-71 that runs 7,521 yards, with Bermuda greens. The course is lined with trees and includes “The Green Mile,” one of golf’s toughest three-hole stretches, including three immense par-4 holes and a par-3 that runs 22 1yards.
Let’s take a look at the PGA betting odds for the top contenders (+5000 and better) as well as a closer look at some picks.
PGA News: Wells Fargo Championship Preview
| Top Contender | Odds (+5000 and better) |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas | +1100 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1400 |
| Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele | +1800 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2000 |
| Webb Simpson | +2500 |
| Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed | +2800 |
| Corey Conners, Joaquin Niemann, Will Zalatoris | +3300 |
| Abraham Ancer, Cameron Tringale, Max Homa, Sungjae Im | +4000 |
| Brian Harman, Jason Day, Russell Henley | +5000 |
When it comes to picking your winner at Quail Hollow, you will want to look at golfers who do well in Strokes Gained: Approach. Justin Thomas leads that stat in this field, having gained 31.5 strokes over his last 24 rounds. The next highest figure in this field is 23.2, which Corey Conners has attained. Will Zalatoris, who put up a shocking runner-up finish at the Masters, is third, with 20.2.
Because of the length of Quail Hollow — and the lack of forgiveness for tee shots that go off the fairway — to do well, a player has to be able to hit the ball long off the team, and do so with accuracy. This is where Strokes Gained: Off the Tee is a crucial number as well. Bryson DeChambeau leads this field in this stat over his last 24 rounds, gaining 26.8 strokes off the tee. Emiliano Grillo is next in this field, at +20.6, so even though his odds are higher than the top contenders listed above (+7000), he’s definitely someone to consider putting on your wager card. If you’re wanting a long shot (no pun intended) who can bash off the tee, Jhonattan Vegas has gained 15.4 shots off the tee in his last 24 rounds and is available at +15000.
Proximity: 200+ is another key stat this week. Of the four par-3 holes, three of them run more than 200 yards. With so many long holes on the course, players will face a number of long approach shots. Bryson DeChambeau has dominated this stat in his last 24 rounds, gaining 40.1 strokes with his long approaches. After that, the next player is Max Homa (+25.9). Emiliano Grillo pops up again, at +23.0, and that value (+7000) makes him even more interesting here.
How about putting on Bermuda grass? Strokes Gained: Putting has emerged as one of the key metrics for Quail Hollow, and if you want to win a PGA tournament, you have to be able to sink your puts. This is good news for such long shots as Denny McCarthy, who has gained 24.5 strokes on Bermuda grass over his last 24 rounds despite offering +12500 odds here.
The last metric we will look at is Par 4:450-500. Quail Hollow has five of these holes, and they are among the trickiest on the course. As the four days go by, the way players perform on these holes will largely determine their fate in the tournament. Sungjae Im has gained 13.5 strokes on this sort of hole over his last 24 rounds, tops in the field. Xander Schauffele has gained 11.9, while Justin Thomas has gained 11.6. Long shot Lanto Griffin (+15000) and even darker horse Michael Thompson (+20000) have gained 11.9 and 10.6 strokes on this type of hole over their last 24 rounds, respectively.
PGA Tour Betting Odds
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