2018 Kentucky Derby Odds: Contenders and Favorites to Win the Race

Saturday marks the 144th edition of the Kentucky Derby, from the venerated racetrack Churchill Downs. Justify enters as the odds-on favorite, but there are plenty of reasons to take a look down the list as well. He is trying to break Apollo’s Curse — trying to win the Kentucky Derby without having competed as a two-year-old, which no horse has done since Apollo did it, way back in 1882. Take a look at our Kentucy Derby odds preview of this centerpiece of the horse racing season and the first of three races that lead to the Triple Crown. Catch the action at 6:50pm Eastern time, on NBC (streaming on NBCSports.com).

2018 Kentucky Derby Odds: Contenders and Favorites to Win the Race

Odds on the Kentucky Derby Contenders

• Justify                                    +300
• Mendelssohn                       +400
• Audible                                   +650
• Magnum Moon                      +800
• Bolt d’Oro                              +900
• Good Magic                           +1100
• Vino Rosso                            +1600
• Hofburg                                  +1800
• Noble Indy                             +2000
• Solomini                                 +2200
• My Boy Jack                          +2500
• Enticed                                   +2500
• Promises Fulfilled                 +3300
• Free Drop Billy                      +3300
• Restoring Hope                     +4000
• Firenze Fire                            +4000
• Quip                                        +4000
• Combatant                             +4000
• Reride                                      +5000
• Snapper Sinclair                   +5000
• Bravazo                                  +5000
• Dream Baby Dream              +6600

Justify comes in off a win of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby back on April 7 (and off a $1 million purse). He ran right by Bolt D’Oro, beating him by three lengths. Justify made his debut back on February 18 and ran to a win by 9 ½ lengths in a ⅞-mile race at Santa Anita Park. In his second race, also at Santa Anita, he finished a full mile and won by 6 ½ lengths. At this point, he started garnering the sort of attention that would move him up the odds list for Churchill Downs. What made the April 7 win even more impressive from the first two is that it was his first race when he was pushed by another horse considered elite competition. In that race, he finished the first half-mile in just under 48 seconds, and then went Bolt d’Oro went into his kick down the stretch, Justify matched the burst in speed and needed just 12.70 seconds to finish the last eighth of a mile. He never had a real challenge to the lead, and he was in charge of the race from tape to tape. That lack of adversity could come back to bite him at Churchill Downs, when there will be significantly more elite competition, but he has been as impressive as a horse can be in three preliminary races. Mendelssohn has also won three straight races coming into Churchill Downs, with the UAE Derby crown his most impressive won. He went away by 18 lengths — but admittedly the field did not contain a lot of elite competition. His odds are close to those of Justify, so the big question that he faces is how he will do surrounded by other elite horses. Obviously, an 18-length win is far from the realm of probability, which means that if Mendelssohn is going to win at Churchill Downs, he’ll have to show that he can close — and that he can maintain a quick pace the whole way. Good Magic has prepared for the Kentucky Derby with five races at five different tracks. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Delmar and the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, in his most recent race. If he can get out to a solid start, even if he doesn’t have an early lead, he has the finishing speed to contend at the end. Audible took the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 31, and his trainer, Todd Pletcher, is one of the best in the business. Audible is the highest rated of the four horses that Pletcher has in the field. Another horse in that race, Promises Fulfilled, would come in ninth because of the energy he burned in a head-to-head sprint that he began the race with, vying with Strike Power for the early lead. However, at a more reasonable rate, Promises Fulfilled has the ceiling to hold a pace and win this race. Those +3300 odds make this a nice value bet as well.