2019 Kentucky Derby Dark Horses and Long Shots

The favorite has won the Kentucky Derby in each of the last six runnings. However, there is always a year when one of the horses way down the odds list puts together a terrific performance and blows away the competition — and the sports betting establishment. Given the accomplishments that each of the 20 horses brings to the race each year, it almost seems impossible for the top favorite to win this many years in a row. This year, the field seems a little more open than normal, without a horse like Justify or American Pharaoh emerging as a heavy favorite. The top contenders such as Game Winner, Roadster and Omaha Beach simply are not garnering the same buzz as contenders have in years past. So this could be the year when a horse that offers some significant value wins. Here are our thoughts on some of this year’s smarter choices from the lower levels of the 2019 Kentucky Derby betting list.

2019 Kentucky Derby Dark Horses and Long Shots

145th Kentucky Derby presented by @WoodfordReserve Post Positions (11-20) 1️⃣1️⃣HAIKAL 1️⃣2️⃣OMAHA BEACH 1️⃣3️⃣CODE OF HONOR 1️⃣4️⃣WIN WIN WIN 1️⃣5️⃣MASTER FENCER 1️⃣6️⃣GAME WINNER 1️⃣7️⃣ROADSTER 1️⃣8️⃣LONG RANGE TODDY 1️⃣9️⃣SPIN OFF 2️⃣0️⃣COUNTRY HOUSE

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) 30 de abril de 2019

Maximum Security

The horse is fairly far down the line sheet despite being the only undefeated horse in the field — and the one with the best early speed. In his four wins, though, he has won wire to wire, which means he hasn’t had to pursue horses in front of them. So his trainer and jockey don’t know how he would respond if he didn’t jump out to the early lead at Churchill Downs. At the Florida Derby, he jumped out to an early lead, meaning that his jockey only had to hold him at a reasonable pace the rest of the way. His four wins have come by 18, 6 ½, 9 ½ and 3 ½ lengths. Given that there aren’t really any fast starters in the field, he could grab that early lead at Churchill Downs as well.

By My Standards

It surprised many observers when he won the Louisiana Derby in March. He has finished on the board in every race that he has entered, and he has a two-race winning streak. Gabriel Saez has ridden him in all five of his races, and Saez worked hard to get a stream going down the stretch. By My Standards is a solid starter as well, coming out of the gate well. Could that be enough for him to deliver a late rally?

Win Win Win

This is a slow starter who was originally slated to be a sprinter. He set a track record time for seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs, but he had to come off the pace to do it, and he has done so several times since then. Win Win Win will need a better start and some luck if he is going to work his way through a field of 20 horses, but he is one of the faster closers among the group of horses in this race that start slow. He got within 2 ½ lengths of Tacitus at the Tampa Bay Derby, and he closed within 3 ½ lengths of Vekoma at the Blue Grass Stakes. Churchill Downs is longer than both of those tracks, so that could give him the closing distance he needs to swipe a win.

Spinoff

The horse has started just two races since August, which explains the high value that you can get here. He lost by just ¾ of a length in the Louisiana Derby to By My Standards. Before that, he won the Tampa DErby by 11 lengths after taking off over half a year. His early speed is solid, but he also has the endurance late to finish well.

Country House

Usually one that starts slowly and finishes fast. That means that a lot of breaks would have to go his way to come in and steal this race. But what if the crew in front of him melts down in terms of pace? Then all bets are off (no pun intended).